Iran

IAEA says Iran agrees on access to nuclear sites
On his first visit to Iran in more than a year, the Secretary General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi, said Iran agreed to restore monitoring equipment and allow inspectors better access to facilities following months of tensions related to Iran’s lack of cooperation with the agency. The statement followed a meeting between Grossi and senior Iranian officials, including President Ibrahim Raisi, on 4 March in Tehran to discuss the issue after media reports the previous week cited the discovery of uranium particles enriched at 83.7% – a small step beneath 90% weapons-grade material.

A joint statement released by the IAEA and Iran said the two sides agreed to conduct “joint” inspections, however the specific terms and conditions of those inspections were not specified. At a press conference however, Grossi said the new agreement will allow a “50% increase” in inspections at key sites, including the Fordow enrichment plant and the reinstallation of monitoring equipment critical to review the progress of the nuclear program.

While details remain limited, the resumption of meetings and the agreement is in itself a positive indicator following Iran’s visible reluctance to cooperate and intent to complicate efforts to monitor and verify the status of the nuclear program. That said, it remains to be seen if the agreement will allow improved inspections in practice as previous rhetoric and agreements have fallen short when implemented.

The discovery of uranium enriched at 83.7% remains an object of concern and was confirmed last week in a quarterly report produced by the IAEA which initially refrained from commenting on the findings. Iran continues to deny any deliberate intent to enrich uranium at that level and claim they are byproducts of “unintended fluctuations” that have occurred during transition periods while enriching 60% uranium. Iran’s claim was not directly disputed by the IAEA report which also refers only to the discovery of “particles” as opposed to stockpiles of 83.7% uranium. Regardless, the report noted the need for further clarification and closer inspections to verify the activities.

Raisi orders investigation into student poisoning
As widely reported, a wave of suspected poisonings affecting students has been reported across Iran, with hundreds of new cases reported this week. The cases have predominantly involved schoolgirls however male students and teachers have also been affected following a recent escalation observed over the past weeks. Having initially dismissed the cases, President Raisi ordered a formal investigation to be conducted this week as the origin and cause of the poisonings remain unclear, however Iranian officials have increasingly acknowledged that the poisonings are most likely intentional. So far, there have been no fatalities or critical cases yet a large number have been hospitalized and the scale of the poisonings is indicative of a coordinated and deliberate campaign.

The initial cases were reported in late November; however, the numbers have gradually increased, with officials acknowledging that more than 50 schools have been affected across 21 provinces. Theories of suspected perpetrators abound but remain speculative and politicized amidst standing reporting challenges. Senior government and security officials have blamed outside enemies or dissident groups, while some observers in the west have accused the government of being complicit, with the apparent targeting of schoolgirls seen as evidence of gender-based violence following the death of Masha Amini and related protests. Another theory gaining traction domestically concerns the involvement of extremist groups who oppose the education of women.

Regardless, the issue has surfaced as another crisis for Tehran following the nationwide unrest that followed the death of Amini and recent economically-motivated protests caused by rising inflation. The government continues to downplay the poisonings, with state-linked media channels dismissing reports as “mass hysteria” and accusing foreign powers of amplifying the issue. Meanwhile, western officials – including the US and Germany – urged the government to do more to protect the students this week, with the remarks predicably rebuked by Tehran.

Iranian navy vessels allowed docking in Brazil
On 26 February and 4 March, two Iranian navy vessels – the IRIS Makran and IRIS Dena – were allowed to dock in the port of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, despite extensive US pressure on Brazil to deny the request. Both the Makran and the Dena are domestically built vessels, with the Makran – a former crude oil tanker – being the only forward base ship operated by the Iranian Navy. The Dena is part of the so-called Moudge class light frigates and equipped with surface-to-air missiles. Iranian officials, including Navy Commander Read Adm- Shajram Irani, described the trips as a step to challenge US hegemony in its own hemisphere as a response to the presence of the US 5th Fleet in the Middle East.

While a largely symbolic challenge to US primacy in the western hemisphere, US and Israeli officials expressed concerns about the development and criticized the Brazilian government for allowing the vessels access to the port. A spokesperson for the US State Department Ned Price said the US is discussing the issue with the Brazilian government and that it wants to ensure that Iran “is not able to gain a foothold” in the western hemisphere. A spokesperson for the Israeli Foreign Relations Ministry similarly called it a “dangerous and regretful” development.

 Syria

Israeli airstrike targets Aleppo International Airport
On 7 March, an Israeli airstrike targeted Aleppo International Airport in northwestern Syria. According to Syrian state-linked sources, the strikes caused material damage to the airport and put it out of service, however no casualties were discussed initially. The Syrian Ministry of Transportation also confirmed that flights were rerouted to other airports while the Foreign Ministry denounced the incident as a “crime”, and added that the majority of humanitarian aid is being channeled through the airport. As usual, Israeli officials refrained from commenting on the operation.

The airstrikes are the second to target the airport in less than six months, with previous operations targeting airport runways to disrupt services. As previously discussed by Talos, the targeting of the airport follows reports of Iran utilizing civilian air transportation to ship military materials into Syria, with Israeli operations assessed as efforts to disrupt the provision of supplies to affiliated militia factions. Recently, related concerns pertain to allegations that Iran is utilizing aid convoys to transport supplies, with Aleppo International Airport acting as a hub to administer aid in the aftermath of the 6 February earthquake. As a result, further operations targeting airports and convoys suspected of transporting supplies are likely to continue in line with standing trends.

World Bank estimates $5.1 billion in earthquake damages
On 3 March, the World Bank said the damages sustained in Syria from the earthquake on 6 February amount to an estimated $5.1 billion. The report added that this represents the equivalent of approximately 10% of Syrian GDP, with Aleppo province accounting for 45% of the total damages. The figures are preliminary, with the bank warning that the initial assessment may be revised based on a number of factors. The estimate can be compared with the $34.2 billion worth of damages estimated in Turkey according to a report released by the World Bank on 27 February.

Iraq

US Defense Secretary visits Baghdad
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Baghdad on 7 March for an unannounced visit as part of a regional tour that includes stops in Israel, Egypt, and Jordan. US officials said the tour forms part of a wider effort to reassure strategic allies in the region of US support, with meetings predictably focused on key issues including the Iranian nuclear program and Israeli-Palestinian tensions.

The arrival in Iraq came just days prior to the 20th anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq, with Austin meeting with Prime Minister Muhammed Shia al-Sudani and Defense Minister Thabet Muhammed al-Abbasi on 7 March. According to official readouts, Austin pledged continued support in the fight against IS and said US commitment would continue until the extremist group is completely defeated. In a press statement, Austin also called on countries with citizens in the al-Hol camp to take steps to repatriate these individuals. Other, arguably more sensitive issues, including Iran, were not publicly discussed, however the Defense Secretary said that groups that threaten or target US troops in the country only serve to undermine the mission to defeat IS. No significant reactions or hostilities from Iran-backed factions were observed during the visit.

German foreign minister denounces Iranian activities
Defense Secretary Austin’s visit coincided with the same day arrival of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to Baghdad to hold meetings with Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein. In comparison to Austin, Baerbock struck a comparatively outspoken tone and strongly denounced Iranian cross-border attacks in the KR-I and other activities as “unacceptable”. Speaking at a press conference, Baerbock accused Iran of risking “human life” and the “stability of the whole region” as well as “brutally suppressing its own people.”

The remarks come as diplomatic tensions between Germany and Iran remain elevated following Germany’s outspoken criticism of the crackdown on protesters and the recent execution of a German Iranian national for participating in the protests. This week, two German diplomats were expelled from Iran after denouncing the execution, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry citing Germany’s “interference” in its internal affairs. So far, the effects of such rhetoric have not crossed the limits of diplomatic tensions and generated hostilities affecting German interests, but the outlook for protests affecting German diplomatic missions should not be discounted as long as the tensions persist.

Turkey

Turkey summons US ambassador following Syria visit
On 6 March, the Turkish Foreign Ministry summoned US ambassador Jeff Flake to protest a visit this week by the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, to northeast Syria. Milley arrived on 4 March to meet US troops and to be briefed on the latest developments in the ongoing fight against IS. According to Turkish state-linked sources, the Turkish government sought clarification and an explanation for the visit.

In response, the US Department of State claims Milley only met with US troops in the area while the Department of Defense added that Milley did not meet any representatives from the Syrian Democratic Forces.  Milley’s visit coincided with the above-discussed tour involving Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin who reiterated the US commitment to combatting IS until the group is fully defeated. Relatedly, US officials have confirmed intent to keep approximately 900 US troops in Syria in order to maintain pressure on IS, with associated tensions with Turkey expected to persist as a result.

Turkey to hold elections as planned despite earthquake
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated in a speech this week that his government intends to hold the national elections on 14 May as planned. Addressing members of his own party, Erdogan derided those who have criticized the government’s handling of the earthquake and said the government will “respond on 14 May”. The statement implicitly suggests that the government does not plan to change the election date amidst speculation that the earthquake on 6 February and the subsequent state of emergency would lead to a postponement. After a cabinet meeting, Erdogan also confirmed that the election date would be formalized later this week.

Relatedly, on 6 March, the main opposition alliance voted to nominate Kemal Kilicdaroglu as its main candidate to challenge Erdogan in the elections. An economist and former civil servant, Kilicdaroglu is the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and has been one of the most prominent opposition leaders in Turkey during Erdogan’s time as president. The nomination of Kilicdaroglu by the six-party opposition alliance remains a source of tension, with the nationalist Ily Party breaking away from the alliance over Kilicdaroglu’s nomination. The Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HPD) – the second-largest opposition party – is not part of the alliance and remains at risk of suspension over alleged financial links with the PKK.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia and UK sign defense agreement subject to conflicting details
The UK Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace made a four-day visit to Saudi Arabia to hold meetings with senior Saudi officials including Crown Prince Muhammed Bin Salman and counterpart Khalid bin Salman. According to the UK Ministry of Defense, the two sides signed a statement of intent (SOI) to improve and strengthen air defense cooperation and air combat relations, however the content and implications of the SOI were subject to conflicting reports. Saudi officials reportedly announced that it pertained to Saudi Arabia’s participation in the UK-led Future Combat Air Systems (FCAS) – a joint effort involving several European countries to develop future aviation technologies.

The UK statement notably omitted any references to Saudi Arabia’s participation in the FCAS, while separate reports emphasized that the SOI is separate from the FCAS matter which would required the consent of other states, including Sweden and Italy, involved in the project. Saudi Arabia’s participation in the FCAS remains unlikely as it would generate pushback from other member states, however by highlighting intent to “explore” air combat relationships for the future, the UK is plausibly leaving the door open for future Saudi participation.

Saudi Arabia and UAE expand financial ties with Turkey
Having restored relations in 2021 and 2022 respectively after years of geopolitical rivalries, Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue to expand trade and financial ties with Turkey. On 6 March, Saudi Arabia announced that it deposited $5 billion into Turkey’s Central Bank with a view to supporting the currency exchange rate of the Turkish Lira which continues to decline. A statement by the official Saudi Press Agency described the investment as a “testament to the close cooperation and historical ties” between the two countries and said the money was taken out of the Saudi Fund for Development. Besides potentially improving the currency value, the deposit is seen as a symbolic sign of support for President Erdogan ahead of the coming national elections.

Separately, the UAE signed a trade agreement with Turkey on 3 March which, according to projected estimates made by Abu Dhabi, aims to increase bilateral trade to $40 billion over the next five years. The so-called Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was praised by President Erdogan as taking economic and trade relations to a new level. To recall, in 2021, diplomatic rapprochement between the two countries was marked by the creation of a $10 billion investment fund, however the levels of investments have since increased. While not explicitly a source of tensions, the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s recent overtures towards Turkey are challenging Qatar’s position as Turkey’s main ally in the Gulf and the recent steps may cause long-term friction between the Gulf States should current levels of UAE/Saudi support for Turkey continue.

UAE

UAE denounces comments by Israeli Minister
The UAE Foreign Ministry denounced controversial comments made this week by Israeli Minister of Finance, Betzalel Smotric, as “racist” after the minister said the Israeli Defense Forces should “wipe out” the Palestinian village of Huwara. The statement by the UAE said it rejects “all behaviors that are incompatible with moral and human values” and reiterated the need to establish an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders.

The comments come at a sensitive time as high levels of violence continue to be reported on the West Bank, driven by tensions between Palestinians and Israeli settlers. Smotric’s remarks were made as a show of support for the tactics employed by Israeli Defense Forces. For the UAE, the approach undertaken by the new Israeli government poses a challenge to its continued normalization with Israel. So far, the conflict has not directly impacted the normalization process, however Abu Dhabi has occasionally pushed back on the rhetoric and practices of the new government. The balancing act may prove increasingly challenging should the violence and hardline policies of the new government continue.

Yemen

Al Qaeda operative killed in suspected US airstrike
On 1 March, reports citing local security sources claimed a senior member of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was killed in a UAV strike suspected of being carried out by the US days earlier. The reports said Hamad bin Hamoud al-Tamimi and a bodyguard were killed inside a house in Marib province. Local government officials reportedly confirmed their deaths, however there was no confirmation from US officials. AQAP confirmed the operation and said a senior member in charge of media operations was killed alongside another member of the group.

The airstrike follows a similar operation in January when three members of AQAP were killed, also in the Marib province. The US declined to officially comment or confirm the strike in January, however footage from the aftermath suggests the involvement of a Hellfire R9X missile which has been extensively employed by the US to strike high-value targets in Yemen, including in the assassination of the former al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.

UK Navy intercepts weapons supply bound for Yemen
On 2 March, the UK Navy and the US 5th Fleet confirmed the interception of a small vessel originating in Iran that carried heavy weaponry, including anti-tank missiles and components for ballistic missiles. The destination of the vessel was not confirmed but it is strongly suspected that the ship was heading to Yemen, with the Fifth Fleet claiming the vessel was using a route historically used to traffic weapons to Yemen.

The interception was reportedly made on 23 February and the cargo included 9M133 Kornet missiles – a Russian-made guided variant that is also manufactured in Iran – as well as fins, censors and other components used for the manufacturing of medium-range ballistic missiles. Commander of the Fifth Fleet Vice Admiral Brad Cooper said the seizure is the seventh conducted in the last three months targeting suspected weapons transfers to Yemen. Iran continues to deny their involvement, with officials this week reiterating their commitment to UN sanctions, including a standing arms embargo on Yemen.