Iran

Third anniversary of Soleimani assassination unfolds without major incident
Various commemorative events marking the third anniversary of the death of former Quds Force commander Qassim Soleimani were predictably held this week in Iran and across the region. Speaking at an event in Iran, President Ibrahim Raisi reiterated Tehran’s pledge to avenge the assassination, stating that there will be “no relief” for those involved in the operation. On the same day, the Iranian judiciary said legal action is being pursued against 94 US citizens involved in the assassination, with pictures and names of those listed published on state-linked media channels. The majority include military and government officials linked with the Trump administration, including former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and White House official Victoria Coates.

Despite an uptick in militia rhetoric and related concerns of hostilities targeting US-linked interests, the anniversary unfolded without larger-scale incidents. The exception included a rocket attack targeting US forces in Syria (see below) yet related activity was otherwise limited to protests and commemorative events organized by Iran-linked supporters which largely unfolded peacefully (see Iraq section below). Regardless, elevated potential for anti-US sentiment is assessed over the coming days and forms a standing consideration in the region ahead of the 8 January anniversary of the 2020 ballistic missile attack against al-Assad Airbase in Anbar province in western Iraq.

Iran summons French ambassador over cartoons
On 4 January, the Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the French ambassador to Iran to condemn and protest the publication of caricatures of Ayatollah Khamenei by the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. In a show of support for the recent protests, the magazine organized a contest in which participants were asked to draw the most offensive depiction of the Supreme Leader. Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian denounced the publication as an insult to Iran’s religious and political authorities and pledged a “decisive and effective response.”

Like other European states, France has repeatedly been accused of supporting and instigating the protests that have been ongoing since September, with the Ambassador previously summoned over France’s alleged interference in Iran’s internal affairs. Wider hostilities targeting French interests in the region are not anticipated based on previous trends, yet should not be discounted should diplomatic tensions over the caricatures increase.

US intent to target Iranian UAV production as UK considers IRGC designation
On 4 January, the US announced that it is exploring additional measures to target Iran’s UAV production. White House National Security Spokesperson Adrienne Watson said the government is “assessing further steps” in terms of “export controls to restrict Iran’s access to technologies used in drones.” Further details regarding what those steps may include were not provided, yet current measures are targeting companies and individuals involved in facilitating Iran’s UAV production. The statement follows increasing evidence of the deployment of Iranian UAVs in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and came days after the Iranian armed forces conducted tests of new combat UAVs during an exercise in the Strait of Hormuz.

Separately, the UK is reportedly considering designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. According to the newspaper the Telegraph, the designation may take place “within weeks” and forms a response to alleged Iranian-backed plots to kidnap or assassinate UK citizens in recent years. The newspaper further claims preparations for the designation have been ongoing since the previous year and would, if implemented, ban the IRGC and any show of support for the force in the UK. An Iranian response can be anticipated and the designation will likely result in additional diplomatic tensions.

Syria

Ineffective rocket attack against coalition forces in northeast Syria
On 4 January, CENTCOM confirmed that two rockets were launched against coalition forces stationed at Mission Support Site Conoco in northeast Syria. No casualties or damage resulted. The Syrian Democratic Forces responded to the point of origin and found a third unfired rocket.  CENTCOM spokesman Col. Joe Buccino condemned the attack for the risks to coalition personnel and civilians, and for undermining the stability of Syria and the region.

This incident formed the first confirmed attack against a US-linked facility in the region linked to the anniversary of the deaths of Soleimani and is, as of 6 January, the only noteworthy incident associated with the event this year. As a small-scale ineffective attack, the strike was consistent with a largely symbolic action as opposed to activity likely to invite more robust coalition responses. As such, the attack did not generate any significant retaliation or escalation in regional tensions.

Damascus Airport closed following Israeli airstrikes
On 2 January, according to Syrian state-linked media, Israeli missile strikes targeted Damascus International Airport, killing two Syrian government soldiers and wounding two others. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and other sources claimed the strikes killed four individuals and also targeted arms depots located in the vicinity of the airport. The airport was damaged as a result and the Syrian Ministry of Transportation said repair work was underway to resume operations, yet without specifying the nature of the damages.

Other sources claimed a runway used predominantly for cargo flights was damaged in the strikes, which comprise the second to target and damage the airport over the past seven months. Like previous Israeli strikes on the airport, the operation likely represents efforts by Israel to disrupt Iranian arms shipments to groups in Syria using civilian airport facilities. As previously discussed, various reports indicate Iran has increasingly relied on civilian airliners to transport equipment to support associated factions in Syria, prompting Israel to shift targeting patterns to include civilian airport facilities as well. Aside from Damascus, this also included repeated attacks on Aleppo International Airport which has likewise been closed following Israeli strikes. For context, see a previous report by Talos.

Oil sector employees killed in suspected IS attack
On 30 December, suspected IS militants conducted an ambush against a bus convoy transporting oil sector employees while en route to the al-Taym oil field in Deir Ez Zour province. At least ten individuals were killed in the attack which involved a roadside IED followed by gunfire. No group claimed responsibility for the attack, however the modus operandi employed is highly indicative of IS involvement.

The site of the ambush is located in an area controlled by Syrian government forces yet the attack came a day after Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced the start of a new counter-terrorism operation in areas under SDF control. On 29 December, CENTCOM also released statistics for 2022, claiming the coalition forces killed 466 IS operatives in Syria and 220 in Iraq during the year. The attack is consistent with increased IS activity in eastern Syria, including several similar ambushes predominantly targeting Syrian army convoys transiting rural and remote areas in eastern Syria.

Turkey

Syrian Defense Minister attends meeting with Turkish counterpart in Russia
In a further sign of normalization between Turkey and Syria, the Ministers of Defense from both countries met with their Russian counterpart in Moscow on 28 December to discuss the situation in Syria. The event was described as a “landmark meeting” and represents the first official interaction between senior Turkish and Syrian officials since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war. Details were characteristically limited yet the Turkish Defence Ministry described the meeting as “constructive” and said the three sides agreed to “continue trilateral meetings” to “ensure and maintain stability in Syria and the region.”

The meeting follows several signs of growing intent by Turkey to reestablish ties with Syria under Russian mediation, with intelligence officials earlier confirming growing levels of cooperation between the two sides. In remarks this week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said meetings between the leaders of the three countries may take place in the near future yet it remains to be seen if President Bashar al-Assad is willing to meet his counterpart who has been the driving force behind the current normalization process.

Iraq

PMF supporters conduct events to commemorate Soleimani
Between 2 and 3 January, PMF supporters conducted a set of assemblies in different areas of Iraq to commemorate former Quds Force Commander Qassim Soleimani and PMF deputy commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. The main event included plans on 2 January for a “million man march” near Baghdad International Airport, with thousands of individuals assembling at the Abbas Ibn Dirnas Square, located along the Baghdad Airport Road. Hundreds of participants were subsequently bused to the site of the airstrike, with assemblies transpiring at both locations.  Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazaa’li and other senior militia officials were amongst those in attendance. No demonstrations were reported near the Green Zone despite limited reports of intent to organize a protest near the US Embassy.  Further context is provided in the full report.

25th Gulf Gup Tournament set to begin in Basra city
On 6 January, the 25^th edition of the Arabian Gulf Cup football tournament is set to be held in Basra city. The competition will last until 19 January and is the first major international tournament hosted by Iraq since 1979. Games will be played at the Basra International Stadium and al-Minaa Stadium, with extensive security deployments expected in the vicinity and the province as a whole. The most likely security impacts relate to significant traffic or road closures in the vicinity of the stadiums, as well as road traffic accidents, celebratory gunfire – particularly if Iraq wins –  or protest activity. Another, less likely consideration, is that of armed non-state actors including militias or to a lesser extent, insurgent activity. Client operations should consider avoiding both stadiums for the duration of the event where possible as a precautionary measure. Further context is provided in the full report.

Israel

Israeli minister’s visit to al-Aqsa Mosque sparks condemnation
On 3 January, newly appointed Israeli Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, made a controversial visit to the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. The visit sparked strong reactions in the region, with multiple countries – including Turkey and the Gulf States – strongly condemning the visit which is perceived as having violated the ‘status quo’ of the holy site. On 5 January, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the issue in which all member states reaffirmed the need to maintain a status quo at the mosque and expressed concerns about the actions of the new Israeli government.

The visit follows the recent appointment of Benjamin Netanyahu as the new Prime Minister of Israel following extensive post-election negotiations in which Netanyahu obtained the position with the support of orthodox and nationalist parties. The composition of the new government has sparked concerns about renewed Israeli-Palestinian tensions, and the visit this week by Ben-Gvir is understandably set to consolidate these worries. The US likewise expressed concerns and said it expects the new government to “follow through” on its commitment to maintaining the status quo of the holy site.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia and UAE condemn al-Aqsa visit
Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE strongly denounced the above-mentioned visit by Ben-Gvir, to the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Like other regional countries, the Saudi Foreign Ministry released a statement condemning this “provocative action of an Israeli official”. The statement also accused Ben-Gvir of “storming the courtyard” of the Mosque and denounced Israeli authorities for undermining international peace and principles by not respecting “religious sanctities.” Riyadh’s strong condemnation reaffirms the Saudi government’s stance on Israel and represents a setback for Israeli efforts to normalize ties with the kingdom which were expected to intensify under Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Likewise, the UAE statement also strongly condemned Itamar Ben-Gvir’s visit to the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, accusing the National Security Minister of “storming” the site and denouncing the “Israeli occupation authorities” for actions undermining “international peace.” The statement evoked language uncharacteristic of the UAE towards Israel since the normalization process began in 2020 yet came only days after UAE President Sheik Mohamed congratulated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on assuming the leadership position. While a more significant rift in Israeli-UAE relations is unlikely, the perceived provocation risks generating localized responses and criticism against the normalization process. Related sentiments will be monitored closely, especially in the event of an escalation in Israeli-Palestinian tensions

Saudi Arabia and Bahrain conclude military exercise
On 30 December, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain concluded a joint naval exercise in Bahrain. The so-called “Bridge 23” exercise reportedly involved forces from the Eastern Fleet of the Saudi Royal Navy as well as forces from the Royal Bahraini Navy. Marine Colonel Ahmed Bin Abdulrahman Al-Osaimi, who led the exercise, said the drill involved multiple tactical scenarios aimed at improving combat readiness and cooperation.

While routine, the exercise is assessed to form part of a broader effort by the GCC countries to counter Iranian posturing in the Persian Gulf in line with a strategy outlined in the latest GCC security summit in December. The drill also coincided with the launch of an Iranian exercise near the Strait of Hormuz involving the use of UAVs as part of standing posturing from Tehran.

Bahrain

Bahrain pledges further cooperation with Israel despite al-Aqsa visit
Like other countries in the region, Bahrain reacted negatively to Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s visit to the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, calling the move a “provocation against Muslims and a violation of international law.” The visit also generated protests in the Kingdom by citizens rejecting normalization and denouncing the actions of the Israeli government (see below).

Yet in a visible effort to downplay the fallout on Bahrain-Israeli relations, Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani spoke on the phone with counterpart Eli Cohen with both sides pledging to strengthen cooperation. According to the official Israeli readout, the two also discussed “meaningful projects” that will deepen economic cooperation, however further details were not provided. Although wider domestic instability is unlikely, the government’s expressed intent to further cooperation despite the controversial visit may understandably provoke localized reactions over the near term.

Protestors denounce normalization with Israel
Protests denouncing normalization with Israel were recorded on multiple occasions this week, including one resulting in minor violence. On the evening of 25 December, various social media sources reported that dozens of people assembled near Bab al Bahrain in Manama city. The demonstration was reportedly triggered by plans to celebrate the Hebrew holiday Hanukkah near the site of the protest. No violence or significant disruptions were noted however the event was reportedly canceled as a result of the demonstration.

On 31 December, according to video footage released on social media by the Alfewaq National Islamic Society, dozens of individuals also gathered in Sitra city to denounce normalization with Israel. Video footage depicts masked individuals involved in a confrontation with Riot Police with stones being thrown and tear gas deployed to disperse the protesters. No casualties were discussed however the incident underscores the potential for localized violence associated with anti-Israeli sentiments.

UAE

Bin Zayed meets President Assad in Syria despite US objections
The UAE continues to normalize and expand ties with Syria. This week, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed visited Damascus to meet with President Bashar al-Assad. Official readouts were characteristically limited yet said the two sides discussed ways to develop economic and trade relations. Abdullah also affirmed the UAE’s support for a “political solution” to the Syrian conflict. Alongside Bahrain, the UAE reset ties with Syria in 2020 after previously supporting the opposition, and Abu Dhabi has since pursued more ambitious efforts to promote trade and investment in Syria.

The US remains strongly opposed to the normalization and has threatened sanctions against regional entities that support the Syrian government, however, this has not affected the UAE’s position. The development of commercial ties between the UAE and Syria is worth monitoring however in light of the potential for sanctions affecting commercial entities operating in the emirates.

Yemen

Lull in Houthi long-range strikes continues as peace efforts fail
Efforts to restore the UN-led truce in the Yemen conflict continue, despite repeated failures to achieve significant progress. On 26 December, another week-long round of negotiations concluded in Sanaa as mediators from Oman left the city without results. According to Saudi-linked media, the Houthi Movement threatened to resume military operations unless demands pertaining to the payment of government salaries in Houthi-controlled territories are met. A spokesperson for the Houthi Movement said strikes against oil and energy assets would resume accordingly, however no further attacks were recorded this week. On 4 January, the US State Department confirmed that Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking is visiting Saudi Arabia and Jordan this week to promote the UN-led peace negotiations.

The expiration of the six-month truce in October was followed by a series of strikes against oil assets in Yemen, however the movement has so far refrained from targeting the Saudi mainland. Regardless, the outlook for a resumption of long-range ballistic missile and UAV strikes on strategic assets in Saudi Arabia remains elevated as long as negotiations continue to fail and remains a standing consideration, especially in the southern provinces of Najran and Abyan.