Talos Regional Snapshot – 5 December 2022

Dec 5, 2022

REGIONAL INCIDENT AND NEWS SUMMARY

Iran

Supreme Leader Khamenei praises security forces as additional troops deploy to Kurdistan province
In a televised speech on 26 November, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei praised the “sacrifices” made by the Basij forces – a branch of the security forces primarily tasked with maintaining internal stability – in the ongoing crackdown of the current nationwide unrest. The Basij “have sacrificed their lives to protect people from rioters”, Khamenei said and added that the presence of the Basij shows that the “Islamic revolution” is alive. The rhetoric is consistent with the approach taken so far and underscores that the government remains committed to crushing the unrest despite limited signs of success and widespread international condemnation.

Meanwhile, state-linked media sources reported the additional deployment of troops to the northwestern Kurdistan province this week. This reportedly includes deployments to urban centers in a continuation of developments seen the previous week, as well as to border areas with Iraq. A statement by Gen. Mohammad Pakpour – a senior general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – said “armored and special forces” were deployed to prevent infiltration and bolster existing border security. Last week, security forces deployed heavy weapons and tanks in several Kurdish-dominated cities, in an assessed escalation of the government crackdown. Several casualties were inflicted as a result as clashes between protesters and security forces intensified, however the number of fatalities remains subject to conflicting reporting.

Security force deployments were also reported in the Sistan-Baluchistan region – a Sunni-dominated province in the southeast – where footage circulating on social media showed security forces deploying live ammunition to disperse crowds in Zahedan, the provincial capital. Days before, a prominent Sunni cleric also called for an end to the repression during his Friday prayer session on 25 November, possibly incentivizing a more robust government response amidst long-standing concerns in Tehran over dissident and ethnic separatist violence in the province.

Iran rejects UN investigation into protest
Diplomatic tensions caused by the unrest continued this week as Iran denounced the establishment of a UN committee to investigate the unrest. The resolution was introduced by Iceland and Germany to the UN Human Rights Council and called for the establishment of a “fact-finding mission” to investigate abuses conducted by the Iranian security forces. The resolution was approved by a majority of the council members on 24 November and demands that Iran cooperates with the mission’s special rapporteur by granting access to key locations and detainees. Six states, including China, Pakistan, Cuba, Eritrea, Armenia, and Venezuela, voted against the resolution while 16 countries abstained from voting.

In response, the Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani denounced the resolution as “politicized” and said Iran will not cooperate with the fact-finding mission. Kanaani added that the Iranian government launched its own investigation into the “events, riots, and unrest” and that the UN investigation was “taking advantage of human rights mechanisms to exercise pressure on independent countries.” The Iranian Foreign Ministry also summoned the German ambassador to formally protest the German government’s initiative to table the resolution. The ambassador has been summoned on multiple occasions since the start of the unrest and the latest move follows repeated accusations against the German embassy for allegedly organizing and supporting the protests.

Relatedly, IRGC Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh said the preliminary investigation launched by the government indicates more than 300 people have been killed in the unrest. Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said separately 50 police officers have been killed and “hundreds” injured in the unrest so far. The statements comprise the first official casualty figures provided by the government yet fall significantly short of those cited by human rights groups and international observers. The Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA) said this week more than 450 people have been killed, including 63 minors, and 18,173 individuals arrested, since the start of the protests on 16 September.

IRGC arrests “foreign intelligence operative” from unnamed gulf country amidst elevated Iran-Saudi tensions
Arrests targeting foreign nationals linked to the protests also continued this week, as the IRGC announced the arrest of a foreign intelligence operative in the port city of Bandar Lengeh in southern Iran. The individual detained was described as an “operative from a spy service of a hostile gulf country” charged with plotting “anti-security activities” in the Hormozgan province. Further details were not provided and the statement refrained from mentioning any specific country or specifying the activities involved. The statement did emphasize the IRGC’s commitment to disrupting foreign attempts to destabilize the countries amidst the current unrest, implying accusations that the individual detained was involved in the current unrest.

The arrest follows repeated accusations by Tehran against Saudi Arabia regarding its alleged involvement in instigating and supporting the ongoing protests. While most rhetoric remains vague, Iran earlier urged Riyadh to tone down coverage of the protests by Saudi-linked Persian language media channels and claims to have arrested individuals linked to Saudi intelligence.

Relatedly, an IRGC-linked social media channel on telegram accused the Saudi government of a plot to suppress Shia minority residents on the island of Tarot – located in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, north of Bahrain. The post discussed a plan to destroy and remove Shia historical and cultural sites on the island, which is home to a substantial Shia minority and subject to occasional ethnic tensions. Separately, a Telegram channel affiliated with Kata’ib Hezbollah called on “countries affected by Saudi Arabia’s criminal actions” to form an alliance and to “transfer the conflict from their countries to the streets of Riyadh”. Such rhetoric is not unprecedented but symptomatic of elevated tensions in light of Tehran’s accusations against Riyadh.

Iraq

Prime Minister Sudani’s visit to Tehran focused on border security
On 29 November, Prime Minister Muhammed Shia al-Sudani arrived in Tehran for the first time since assuming the current position, to meet with senior Iranian counterparts including President Ibrahim Raisi. The two sides discussed a range of bilateral issues, but discussions were understandably focused on security issues stemming from recent Iranian cross-border strikes targeting Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups in the KR-I. In a joint press conference with President Raisi, Prime Minister Sudani said the two countries’ security “is indivisible and that the government of Iraq will not allow its territory to be used as a threat to Iran.

The statement follows an earlier decision by the National Security Council in Baghdad to deploy additional forces to secure border areas with Iran, in what was assessed as a response to Iranian demands for measures to rein in Kurdish opposition groups and prevent associated elements from “infiltrating” the Iran-Iraq border.  For his part, President Raisi underscored Iran’s priority on maintaining mutual security ties and reiterated demands for the withdrawal of US and other foreign forces from the region.  On the sidelines of these meetings, Iranian and Iraqi border guard officials also signed a memorandum of understanding addressing diverse border-related security issues, including prevention of “terrorism” and criminal activity, with few additional details provided.

Syria

Continued signs of Turkish operation in northern Syria
Senior Turkish government officials continued this week to threaten an imminent cross-border operation in northern Syria. Speaking to a state-linked channel on 29 November, Ibrahim Kalin, spokesperson for the Turkish presidency, said the operation may take place “at any moment”, days after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the government is determined to root out the PKK and that the recent airstrikes are “just the beginning”.

While similar rhetoric has been expressed repeatedly by senior Turkish officials since the 13 November IED attack in Istanbul, reports from the ground in northern Syria also indicate preparations for an upcoming offensive. A senior SDF commander cited this week said the Turkish military is preparing its “mercenaries” in the country for the offensive – a reference to Turkish-backed elements of the Free Syrian Army and other opposition groups based in northern Syria.

The commander also noted the deployment of reinforcements near the Turkish border and inside areas controlled by Turkish-backed groups, which are likely to take part in any upcoming operation. An anonymous Turkish official also informed an international media outlet on 28 November that preparations have begun and that the military only requires “a few days” to be fully ready. While most likely leaked deliberately to corroborate perceptions of an imminent invasion beyond rhetoric, the reports are afforded a degree of credibility by separate open-source reports discussing significant troop movements near the Syrian-Turkey border areas.

US urges de-escalation as Russian army commander arrives in Syria
Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation and prevent a ground incursion intensified this week, as US officials continue to urge Turkey to exercise restraint. Speaking at a press conference on 29 November, spokesperson for the Department of Defense, Air Force General Patrick Ryder, urged Turkey to exercise restraint and warned that a ground invasion “would severely jeopardize the hard-fought gains” achieved against IS and that it would “destabilize the region.” Ryder also confirmed that Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin will meet his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar in the coming days to discuss the situation.

Russian efforts to discourage an invasion were also noted as Lt. Gen. Alexander Chaiko – commander of Russia’s operations in Syria – arrived in northern Syria to meet SDF commander Mazloum Abdi. The content of their discussion was not specified but the meeting coincided with reports that Russia offered to broker an agreement aimed at preventing a Turkish incursion. According to al-Jazeera, the agreement involves a request that the SDF withdraw from areas near Tal Rifaat, Manbij and Kobane, with Syrian government forces deployed to some border areas instead. Turkey reportedly approved the efforts by Russia and afforded Moscow time to forge an agreement. On 30 November, Russia and Syrian government forces were also reported to have deployed additional reinforcements near the border areas, yet as of 1 December, it remains unclear if these moves form part of any agreement with Turkey or if they are intended to unilaterally discourage Turkey from escalating.  

SDF notes ‘temporary suspension’ in joint counter-terrorism operations
Relatedly, on 29 November, SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi said joint counter-terrorism operations conducted with coalition forces have been temporarily suspended as a result of recent Turkish airstrike activity and warned that efforts to counter IS in the region may be affected. To recall, airstrikes last week targeted guards at the SDF-controlled al-Hol camp in Hasakah province, with eight SDF members killed as a result. The group was also reported to have struggled to contain efforts by IS members inside the camp to escape, with some elements having successfully escaped as a result. The event understandably accentuated concerns that a ground invasion will negatively impact counter-terrorism operations and possibly afford IS an opportunity to capitalize on existing divisions.

Addressing these concerns in the above-mentioned press conference,  Department of Defense spokesperson Ryder confirmed that the coalition decided to reduce the number of partnered patrols, adding that the SDF reduced the number of patrols and therefore “necessitating” that the coalition forces do the same. However, the statement stopped short of declaring a full suspension and Ryder also emphasized that the mission remains focused on “countering the ISIS threat” and denied that the US has made any troop withdrawals in response to recent developments.

IS reports death of leader in Syria and appointment of successor
On 30 November, IS released an audio message stating that the group’s leader, Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, was recently killed while fighting “the enemies of God” “on the battlefield” in an unspecified area.  Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurayshi was announced as the new successor.  According to US CENTCOM spokesman Col. Joe Buccino, al-Qurayshi was killed in mid-October during an operation conducted by Free Syrian Army fighters in the Daraa province of southern Syria.  The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights previously reported that a group of IS fighters were killed during clashes with Syrian rebels in Jassem village.  The delayed reporting indicated that the responsible actor could not initially confirm the leader’s identity.  The US military was not apt to publicly confirm the death until IS openly announced the loss along with the selection of a successor. Further details are provided in the full report.

Israel

Israel approves drilling rights for Qatar
On 23 November, Israel reportedly approved a request from the Qatari Energy Consortium to obtain drilling rights in the Kana-Sidon undersea reservoir. This follows an agreement signed between Israel and Italian and French companies ENI and TotalEnergies on 25 November, whereby both companies are set to commence gas exploration in the area. The 22 November agreement allows Qatar to purchase drilling rights from TotalEnergies in the reservoir, which is located in previously disputed waters now settled between Israel and Lebanon.

The approval for Qatar is noteworthy since the two countries do not have diplomatic relations. A key backer of Hamas, Qatar continues – like Saudi Arabia – to condition any normalization with Israel on progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the implementation of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. That said, Doha has occasionally acted as a mediator between Israel and Hamas and recently approved direct flights from Tel Aviv to Doha for the FIFA World Cup. The government has been clear however that the approval does not signify a change in its policy against Israel and it remains to be seen if the expansion of gas and energy ties may precipitate a gradual change in diplomatic relations.

Turkey

Turkey to expand ties with Egypt
Speaking at a press conference on 27 November, President Erdogan reiterated Turkey’s intent to expand ties with Egypt and said minister-level meetings will be held between the two sides in the near future. The remarks followed a public handshake between Erdogan and his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi last week in Doha, which the Egyptian presidency described as a “new start” in bilateral relations. 

Turkey’s rapprochement with Egypt follows the restoration of ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia earlier this year which, like Egypt, were previously negatively affected by Turkey’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood during the Arab Spring. Turkey notably provided strong support for Sisi’s predecessor Muhammad Morsi who was removed in 2013. Initial consultations between Turkey and Egypt commenced last year but produced no significant results, and it remains to be seen if current symbolic measures translate into more tangible progress.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia signs agreement to purchase combat ships
On 30 November, the Saudi Ministry of Defense announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Spanish company Navantia regarding the ordering of “a number of multi-mission combat ships” for the Royal Saudi Navy. The statement said the purchase aimed to strengthen maritime security and to protect “vital and strategic interests of the Kingdom” in line with its 2030 vision. Further details of the orders were limited, with the statement generically discussing the integration of the “latest combat system” to deal with threats from the air, surface, and sub-surface levels.

Qatar

Germany and Qatar sign gas agreement
On 29 November, QatarEnergy confirmed that the company signed an agreement with Germany, according to which Doha will provide two million tons of liquified natural gas per year, over a 15-year period. The agreement will reportedly come into effect in 2026 as Germany attempts to limit its dependence on Russian imports. The import scope discussed covers approximately 2.7% of Germany’s annual consumption and German chancellor Olaf Scholz described the agreement as a “building block” towards achieving energy security.

The deal follows months of extensive negotiations which were reportedly prolonged due to Qatar’s refusal to meet a german request for a shorter-term agreement. Separate negotiations have also been conducted with France which, while not as dependent on Russian gas, is also looking to diversify its sources. Last week, QatarEnergy signed a 27-year agreement with Petrochina to ship four million cubic meters/year – a deal at the time assessed to put pressure on Europe to reach a similar agreement. While not unexpected, the timing is certainly noteworthy given diplomatic tensions associated with a protest over Qatar’s human rights issues conducted by the German national team during the FIFA World Cup.

UAE

Iranian and UAE Foreign Ministers discuss bilateral ties
On 24 November, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan received a phone call from his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian. The official readout was characteristically devoid of significant details, with both sides reportedly discussing ways to enhance cooperation and improve the stability of the region. Al-Nahyan also called for diplomatic efforts to strengthen the “sovereignty of states” in line with the UN charter. This part was notably omitted from the Iranian readout which instead stressed Iran’s willingness to expand ties with regional countries and encourage business and trade ties with the UAE.

Lack of details aside, the timing of the phone call is significant given recent Iranian and Iran-linked activities plausibly viewed with concerns in Abu Dhabi. This includes the cross-border operations in northern Iraq and associated violations of Iraq’s national sovereignty, as well as Iran’s significant progress on the nuclear program. Meanwhile, the ongoing demonstrations in Iran continue to fuel accusations over the alleged involvement of the gulf states (see above) in stoking the unrest, with the UAE’s diplomatic outreach plausibly intended to mitigate wider regional tensions.

Yemen

Yemen government obtains aid package from Arab Monetary Fund
On 27 November, the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government of Yemen signed an agreement with the UAE-based Arab Monetary Fund to secure one billion USD in economic aid until 2025. According to media reports, the aid aims to assist the government in establishing monetary and fiscal stability, as the dollar-riyal exchange rate continues to decline in government-controlled areas. Economic instability is also compounded by the existence of two separate central banks affecting two parallel economies – including one in Sana’a and the other in Aden. The Houthi Movement denounced the agreement saying it will “only serve the countries of aggression” and not the people of Yemen. Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia pledges to donate three billion USD in aid however how much of that sum has been paid remains unclear.

US Envoy in Yemen to support peace efforts
The US Special Envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking traveled to Oman and Saudi Arabia this week to “support ongoing peace efforts”, as per a statement by the US State Department. Meeting with Omani officials on 29 November, Lenderking reportedly reviewed “efforts to find a political solution” to the conflict yet no significant results were discussed. The visit follows a recently discussed uptick in Houthi UAV strikes against oil assets in southern Yemen and associated concerns of an escalation in Houthi strikes.

The meeting coincided with discussions held between UN Envoy Hans Grundberg and representatives of the Saudi-backed government, as the UN continues efforts to revive the nationwide truce that expired in early October. A statement by the UN said the meetings focused on “options and ways” to “enhance dialogue to reach a political settlement”, yet further details were not provided, and no significant progress was noted.

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