Talos Regional Snapshot – 18 December 2022

Dec 18, 2022

REGIONAL INCIDENT AND NEWS SUMMARY

Iran

Iran publicly executes second protester
On 12 December, Iranian authorities publicly executed a 23-year-old individual involved in the recent protests. Majidreza Rahnavard was reportedly hung from a construction crane and footage of the execution was disseminated by state-linked media channels as part of an ongoing effort to deter others from participating in the unrest. Rahnavard was reportedly accused of stabbing to death two members of the security forces in November and was sentenced in a close-door trial widely denounced as a sham.

The execution is the second to take place in less than a week following the punishment of Mohsen Shekari on 8 December. President Ibrahim Raisi pledged on 9 December to continue the crackdown, saying the “identification, trial and punishment of the perpetrators of the martyrdom of security forces will be pursued with determination.” Like the execution of Shekari, the sentencing of a second protester this week was widely condemned as human rights groups claim both defendants were subjected to torture and that the allegations are fabricated. Human rights groups said more than a dozen other individuals had been sentenced to death in “sham trials” held behind closed doors, with further executions likely to take place over the coming days.

Meanwhile, demonstrations continued to be reported this week, albeit on a smaller scale and with reduced intensity than in previous weeks. Several small-to-medium-sized gatherings were recorded in Tehran and other minor cities in western Iran, however the number of protesters attending seemed to be significantly below earlier larger-scale gatherings. Several activist organizations announced plans for additional demonstrations in the coming days, including calls for “mass protests” on 21-22 December in Tehran to denounce the recent executions.  

EU imposes additional sanctions following public executions
The executions were predictably condemned internationally and in a statement released on 12 December, the EU called on Iran to “immediately end the strongly condemnable practice of imposing and carrying out death sentences against protesters as well as to annul without delay the recent death penalty sentences that were already pronounced.” The EU also announced the imposition of additional sanctions targeting senior government officials and the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting – a media channel – for their involvement in the crackdown. The sanctions included travel bans and the freezing of assets for more than 20 individuals. A full list of the sanctions can be found here.

In a related development on 14 December, the UN Economic and Social Council voted to remove Iran from the Commission on the Status of Women – a body established by the UN to combat gender inequality. The initiative was based on a resolution introduced by the US and was approved by a vote of 29-8, with 16 countries abstaining. The eight countries voting against the opposition included Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Oman, Bolivia and Zimbabwe. US officials predictably described the vote as “historic” and a sign of widespread consensus between the US and its allies on the need to isolate Iran in response to recent developments.

Iran to host IAEA delegation regarding uranium probe
On 14 December, the Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Mohammad Eslami, announced that members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will visit Tehran “in the coming days.” In a press briefing, Eslami said both organizations are communicating to resolve existing differences and that the meeting presents an opportunity to address “ambiguities and obstacles.” The IAEA later confirmed that a delegation will arrive in Tehran on 18 December to address “outstanding safeguard issues” – an assessed reference to the discovery of uranium particles at three undeclared sites which is being investigated by the IAEA. To recall, Iran has repeatedly called for an end to the investigation and conditioned progress on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the IAEA ending the probe, however such efforts have been unsuccessful as Western officials continue to rule out ending the investigation.

The upcoming visit follows a two-month lull in interactions between Iran and the IAEA, with the latter repeatedly warning over its inability to confidently monitor Iranian activities. The onset of the civil unrest and subsequent crackdown created a further wedge, as western officials repeatedly ruled out resuming negotiations as long as the crackdown continued. However, the upcoming visit is a cautious but significant indicator that negotiations may well resume despite these other developments.

Last week, following a meeting with EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Joseph Borrell, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian tweeted that Iran and the EU are “on the way to the final stage” of an agreement, and this week the foreign ministry published an 11-point statement essentially calling for negotiations to resume. The EU/Western response remains very cautious and the imposition of additional sanctions this week following the executions is understandably set to complicate prospects for any constructive engagement.

Syria

President Erdogan calls for implementation of 2019 agreement
On 11 December, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke on the phone with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss various issues, including the security situation in northern Syria. According to an official Turkish readout, Erdogan called for the establishment of a buffer zone in accordance with a 2019 agreement made between Russia and Turkey, which essentially involved the removal of PKK/YPG-linked forces from Turkish border areas. The agreement has since not been fully implemented and Turkish officials have repeatedly cited failure to comply with the agreement as a pretext for launching a ground incursion into northern Syria. For their part, the Russian readout mentioned that the agreement was discussed and that both sides would continue to discuss the issue, but without taking a strong position.

Earlier in the week, a Russian delegation led by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin visited Ankara to meet representatives of the Turkish Foreign Ministry. The outcome of the meeting was not publicly discussed; however various reports indicated the meeting focused on issues related to Syria, with the Turkish delegation likewise reiterating calls for Russia’s cooperation in establishing a buffer zone. Separate reports also indicated efforts to promote reconciliation and normalization between Turkey and Syria, weeks after President Erdogan expressed renewed interest in meeting President Bashar al-Assad. However, multiple sources indicate Damascus remains reluctant to engage with Turkey despite Russian efforts to organize a meeting between the two leaders.

CENTCOM confirms death of two IS members in helicopter raid
On 11 December, according to a statement by the US Central Command (CENTCOM), two IS members were killed in what was described as a “successful” helicopter raid in an unspecified area of eastern Syria. The principal target of the operation included a senior province official, named Anas, responsible for “deadly plotting and facilitation operations” in the eastern part of the country. The statement added that a preliminary assessment revealed no civilian casualties.

Israeli commander suggested Israeli involvement in airstrikes near Iraq/Syria border
In remarks delivered on 14 December, Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi strongly suggested Israel’s involvement in the targeting of fuel trucks operated by Iranian-backed militias near the Iraq/Syria border in November. To recall, on 8 November, some 22 fuel trucks were targeted by suspected Israeli aircraft in the Hari area, eastern Syria, with local reports indicating 14 people were killed.

In his remarks, Kochavi said the strikes would not have been possible without the advanced intelligence and precision-strike capabilities possessed by the Israeli armed forces, and that of the eight trucks targeted only one carried weapons. He also said anti-aircraft systems made it necessary to “send pilots” to conduct the operation, indicating the strikes were conducted by manned fighter jets as opposed to UAVs, as initially claimed by Iraqi officials.

Israel

Netanyahu to pursue normalization with Saudi Arabia
In an interview with the Saudi-owned al-Arabiya news channel, Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu indicated intent to extend the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia once in office. Framing normalization as a step to further the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Netanyahu said the establishment of diplomatic relations would encourage other elements in the region – including Palestine – to formally recognize Israel and thereby remove the main obstacle to the peace process.

The Saudi government did not respond to what appears to be a more concerted outreach from the new Israeli government to Riyadh, following speculation in recent years that the two sides would follow the UAE and Bahrain to establish formal ties. While Saudi Arabia continues to condition normalization on Israel’s commitment to the 2000 Arab Peace Initiative, several informal steps have been taken by both sides to establish ties. This year, an agreement allowing Israeli aircraft to use Saudi airspace was signed during President Joe Biden’s visit and the two countries have also participated in multilateral military exercises together. Two years ago, Netanyahu was also reported to have attended a meeting in Neom alongside former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed Bin Salman. While Riyadh is not expected to shift its position on Israel in the near future, the election of Netanyahu sets conditions for similar, informal steps to be taken between the two sides.

Turkey

VBIED detonates in southeastern Turkey
On the morning of 16 December, according to various reports, a parked vehicle-borne IED (VBIED) detonated against a police van traveling near a livestock market near Diyarbakir city in southeastern Turkey.  As a result, eight police officers and one civilian were wounded.  Turkish authorities reportedly quickly detained five suspects described as perpetrators and collaborators.  Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu blamed the attack on “the terrorist organization,” referring to the PKK.  No claim of responsibility was initially issued.  Diyarbakir is a predominately Kurdish population center, with Turkish authorities expected to formally accuse the PKK of responsibility. The near-term outlook for retaliatory responses is understandably elevated and the attack is set to be used as a pretext for additional Turkish threats of a ground incursion in northern Syria. Further details are provided in the full report.

Mayor of Istanbul sentenced to prison
On 14 December, Ekrem Imamoglu, the Mayor of Istanbul, was sentenced to two and a half years in prison for allegedly insulting public officials in a speech in 2019 where he allegedly referred to government officials as “fools.” Imamoglu is widely considered a key candidate ahead of the 2023 elections, with polls consistently showing his electoral support to be higher than that of the president. The main opposition alliance, which comprises six parties and is led by Imamoglu’s Republican People’s Party, has yet to agree on a presidential candidate but the Istanbul mayor was one of the key candidates for the position. The sentencing has been appealed but would, if upheld, disqualify him from challenging Erdogan in the 2023 polls.

The sentencing provoked international criticism and is understandably viewed as an attempt to remove a key opposition figure ahead of the elections. The US State Department said it was “deeply troubled and disappointed” by the sentencing, with deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel calling it “unjust” and “inconsistent with respect for human rights, fundamental freedoms and the rule of law.”  Widespread protest activity was also reported in Istanbul following the decision as thousands of protesters gathered on 15 December to denounce the sentencing.

Iraq

Three Iraqi Army members killed in rare IED attack in northern Baghdad province
In a rare incident on 14 December, three members of the Iraqi Army, including a battalion commander, were killed when an IED detonated in the Tarmiyah district of northern Baghdad province. Two additional soldiers were injured according to the official Security Media Cell. IS claimed responsibility for the incident which took place in an area traditionally associated with IS presence and occasionally subject to significant IS attacks. Further context is provided in the full report.

The IED attack followed an uptick in IS activity coinciding with Victory Day on 6 December which commemorates the success against IS. On 10 December, clashes between ISF, local civilians and IS in Salah ad Din province resulted in multiple casualties and culminated with the detonation of a suicide vest by an insurgent to avoid capture. Other significant developments included a set of anti-IS operations and IS attacks in the northern region between 6 and 11 December which was consistent with elevated IS intent in conjunction with the victory day commemoration. Further details and context is provided in the full report.

Saudi Arabia

China and Gulf states pledge to expand cooperation during summit
Further to last week’s discussion, President of China Xi Jinping attended the inaugural China-GCC summit in Riyadh on 9 December – a meeting not only attended by GCC leaders but also by leaders from Sudan, Egypt, Iraq, and Palestine. Addressing the summit, leaders from all countries variably pledged the need to expand ties with China, with the event widely described as “historic” in the formation of a deeper partnership.

Beyond rhetoric – and the previously discussed signing of several commercial agreements between Saudi and Chinese companies – the summit did not produce significant concrete results except to reinforce China’s future involvement in the region, with the GCC nominally set to expand economic and energy ties. A joint 18-point statement signed by China and the GCC stressed the need to develop ties in several areas, as well as to cooperate to ensure regional stability and peace, yet it stayed mostly short of taking any controversial or new positions on key regional issues. This included a commitment to ensure the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program; a political settlement to the Syrian and Yemen conflicts; and the establishment of a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on the 1967 borders.

Iran reacts negatively to summit and remarks on UAE-Iran border dispute
Xi Jinping’s visit to Riyadh generated negative coverage and reactions in Iran. In the otherwise uncontroversial communique mentioned above, the joint statement supported the UAE’s efforts to reach a peaceful resolution to the “issue” of the islands of Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, and Lesser Tunb – three islands subjected to a long-standing territorial dispute between Tehran and Abu Dhabi. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian issued a statement on Twitter asserting that the islands form an “inseparable” part of Iran, while Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani denounced the communique. Conservative newspapers and media channels variably denounced the meeting by highlighting China’s reluctance to criticize the war in Yemen and with some also questioning China’s commitment to the 25-year agreement signed with Iran last year.

Although reactions in reformist circles were less dramatic, the reactions underscore the challenges involved in China’s attempt to balance ties and pursue interests across regional rivalries. Despite the signing of the 25-year agreement and clear efforts by the Raisi administration to pursue stronger ties with China as part of an “eastern doctrine”, trade relations between Beijing and Tehran remain significantly below those between China and the GCC states. The lack of detail regarding the agreement has also prompted negative speculation about its content, with multiple observers deeming the deal to be mainly of symbolic importance. Regardless of its content, the reactions this week and China’s deepening of ties with the GCC are set to undercut efforts to expand relations with Iran.

Yemen

UN convoy ambushed in Hadhramaut
On 9 December, a convoy carrying members of the UN’s International Office of Migration (IOM) was subjected to an ambush in the Hadhramaut province, southern Yemen. Two Yemen government soldiers accompanying the convoy were killed as a result. The convoy was reportedly en route from Seiyon to Marib, however no members of the IOM were killed or injured. No group claimed responsibility for the attack which is a relatively rare instance of international organizations being directly targeted. Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) retains a presence in the province and is widely suspected of involvement in the kidnapping of five local UN employees in Abyan province in February 2022. AQAP’s involvement in the latest incident is plausible but has not been confirmed.

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