REGIONAL INCIDENT AND NEWS SUMMARY

Iran

Efforts to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) remain stalled, with no further progress noted since the decision to pause negotiations in March. Last week, US Special Representative for Iran Rob Malley said a deal is “not around the corner and is not inevitable”. Other US officials downplayed reports in Iranian state-linked media that an impending prisoner exchange and the unfreezing of assets would contribute to furthering negotiations. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the negotiations are “proceeding as planned”, seemingly contradicting more negative sentiments expressed by western officials.

Relatedly, a statement signed by 250 Iranian MPs set various conditions for the revival of the JCPOA, including demands for guarantees approved by the US Congress that it would not withdraw from the agreement in the future. Additional conditions include the removal of “snapback mechanisms” that previously allowed sanctions to be reinstated at short notice. Neither condition is likely to be met. The statement, while politically significant as an attempt to put pressure on the Iranian government, is not legally binding and will not directly influence Iran’s position in the negotiations.

Syria

Israeli airstrikes targeting suspected Iran-linked sites resumed in recent weeks in western Syria. On 9 April, at least five strikes were conducted west of Hama, near the Lebanese border, targeting various sites and facilities utilized by Iranian-backed groups. No casualties were discussed but the strikes caused material damage according to local reports. On 15 April, multiple strikes were also recorded outside Damascus, targeting militia facilities located in the Qatana district southwest of the capital. No casualties were discussed but local reports indicated material damage.

On 7 April, at least two rockets impacted Green Village, a military base hosting US forces in the Omar Oilfield in Deir Ez Zour province. According to the International Coalition, four US service members were wounded and were later ”evaluated” for possible traumatic brain injuries. No group claimed responsibility, but Iranian-aligned militia groups are suspected of being involved. Although the four possible casualties, while non-life-threatening, infringed upon established US redlines involving casualty-producing attacks, no significant coalition responses were reported as of writing.

Turkey

The Turkish Ministry of Justice approved a request to transfer the trial of 26 individuals involved in the assassination of Saudi-American journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The request was made by a Turkish court and will transfer the case to Saudi Arabia. The decision represents a significant reversal of the Turkish position and underscores Ankara’s intent to improve relations with Saudi Arabia.

On 18 April, Turkish forces officially launched new offensive operations against PKK locations in northern Erbil and Dohuk provinces as part of a spring offensive anticipated in recent weeks. Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced the start of operation “Claw-Lock” in the early hours this morning, adding that the first phase of the operation was completed successfully. The statement added that the operation targets “terrorists” while “maximum sensitivity” is being shown to avoid civilian casualties. Operations should be aware of the potential for airstrikes to be seen within historic targeting areas over the near term, including within oilfield areas with known PKK presence, and in areas proximate to the Amedi-Sheladiz Road which remains relevant for transit considerations. Further updates regarding the Turkish Operation will be provided by Talos and available to subscribers throughout the week.

Israel

Clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinian protesters near the al-Aqsa Mosque over the Easter weekend are raising concerns about another round of escalation in the conflict. According to sources citing “Palestinian medical sources”, 17 individuals were injured over the weekend as security forces dispersed gatherings near the mosque, echoing events that preceded the 11-day hostilities in May 2021. While Israeli police accuse Palestinians of “defiling” the site, Palestinian officials accuse Israel of attempting to divide the holy site. Outside rhetorical support, no significant regional repercussions have been observed thus far, but the potential for wider protest activity and unrest related to these developments should be considered over the near term in the event of escalation.

Iraq

Iran-linked attacks against oil industry interests continued in recent weeks. Further to the 13 March ballistic missile strikes in Erbil province that targeted a villa owned by the CEO of KAR group, several rockets impacted the vicinity of Kawergosk Oil Refinery northwest of Erbil on 6 April. The refinery is also operated by the KAR group. The facility did not sustain any damage and no casualties were discussed (further details are available in the full Talos Featured Report available to subscribers).

Suspected Iran-linked operations also continued against sites associated with US presence. This included the interception of a UAV in the vicinity of al-Asad Airbase in Anbar province on 8 April. No casualties or damages were discussed, and reporting from official Iraqi sources was limited, but the interception was confirmed by the international coalition (further details are available in the full Talos Featured Report available to subscribers).

Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Yemen

In a sign of reconciliation, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait announced the return of their ambassadors to Lebanon this week. To recall, both countries withdrew diplomatic representation in October in response to comments made by a former Lebanese minister, with ties to Hezbollah, regarding the war in Yemen. The crisis was more broadly assessed to reflect GCC pushback against the perceived increase in Iranian influence in the country. The restoration of ambassadorial ties follows a series of confidence-building measures proposed by Kuwait in January and comes ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled to be held in Lebanon on 15 May.

The Fifth US Naval Fleet confirmed the deployment of a new task force to enhance maritime security and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Officials said the task force was commissioned on 17 April and consists of two to eight vessels patrolling waters and charged with striking “those targeting coal, drugs, weapons, and people” in the Red Sea, a reference to the illicit activities by armed groups in northeast Africa, including al-Shabab. While not mentioned, the formation of the task force is also assessed to protect against maritime attacks by the Houthi Movement, which recently escalated the use of explosive-laden boats to target vessels off the coast. The movement criticized the deployment as primarily aimed to uphold the Saudi-led naval blockade.