Iran

US and Iran move forward with prisoner exchange agreement
The US and Iranian governments are reportedly taking steps to implement the prisoner exchange agreement reached between the two sides earlier this summer, with Iranian state-linked sources claiming the agreement will be implemented as early as next week. In a phone call with Qatar Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian thanked Qatar for its role in mediating the deal and said the process of wiring funds previously frozen in South Korea is currently ongoing. Separately, according to Reuters, the US State Department sent documentation to US congressional committees this week confirming that it has proceeded to unfree the funds and formally acknowledged that five Iranian detainees held in the US will be released. The document – which has not been made public, but which was apparently leaked to Reuters – motivated the move as consistent with the national security interests of the US and emphasized that the funds would be of limited benefit to Iran.

To recall, the exchange agreement was unveiled in early August and was seen as linked to earlier negotiations between Iran and the US over the Iran nuclear program. The decision to release the approximately $6 billion in assets held in South Korean banks sparked concerns that the funds would be used to fund hostile activity in the region however the Biden administration has since provided reassurances that the money can only be used for humanitarian aid purposes and that the US will retain oversight into how the money is spent.

Meanwhile, the US, UK, Germany and France, warned this week that they may submit another resolution to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over Iran’s lack of cooperation with the agency. The warning to Tehran was made during the quarterly meeting held in Vienna and follows the IAEA’s expressed concerns over its inability to monitor the Iranian nuclear program in its quarterly report leaked to the media last week. The joint statement issued called on Iran to “act immediately” to settle outstanding issues, including providing an explanation for the discovery of uranium traces at two undeclared sites and rebuilding surveillance equipment at key sites to facilitate inspections. Of the 35 board member countries that form part of the IAEA, 22 supported the statement made. 

UK, France and Germany to maintain ballistic missile and nuclear sanctions on Iran
In a separate development this week, the UK, France and Germany released a joint statement confirming that they intend to maintain current sanctions related to the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile program beyond the so-called “transition day” which falls on 18 October. To recall, the transition day was stipulated under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and called for the lifting of several additional sanctions pertaining to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic program eight years after the agreement had been in effect. However, with the collapse of the JCPOA and Iran’s subsequent decision to accelerate its nuclear activities in response to the US withdrawal, the European signatures of the agreement decided not to lift the sanctions.

The current sanctions include arms and missile embargoes, and several nuclear-proliferation-related measures that were in effect prior to the JCPOA. The statement this week was widely expected as European officials communicated to Iran in June that they intend to maintain the restrictions beyond the transition day however the statement emphasized that they are ready to withdraw the sanctions and comply with the original agreement should Iran return to compliance. For their part, Iranian officials reiterated their rejection of the sanctions and said Tehran would “respond appropriately”, without providing any further details.

Israel claims to have foiled 27 Iran-linked attack plots
The Director of the Israeli Intelligence Service Mossad, David Barnea, claimed this week that Israel and its allies have foiled 27 Iran-linked attack plots over the past year. Speaking at an annual conference at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism Policy (ICT) at Reichman University,  Barnea said attacks against “Israeli interests and Jews” were foiled “all over the world” including “Europe, Africa, the Far East, and South America.” Striking an unusually direct tone, the director also warned that Israel would “exact a price from Iran” should Israeli or Jewish targets be harmed, including by targeting “decision-makers” and striking back “in the heart of Tehran.” The remarks also commented on the growing cooperation between Iran and Russia, with Barnea expressing concerns that the provision of advanced weapons from Russia to Iran may be used to target Israel. Finally, Barnea also dismissed current negotiations between Iran and the West, including the prisoner exchange agreement in August, as a “cynical attempt to release money frozen as part of international sanctions.”

Barnea’s comments are consistent with Israeli’s long-standing position on Iran and do not represent any change in Israeli’s overarching posture. That said, the rhetoric employed by Barnea is unusually direct, with the implicit threat of targeting leaders in Tehran a clear escalation in rhetoric. The comments on Russia and the West are also indicative of a bold approach adopted by the current Israeli government which contrasts with the more subtle positions adopted by the previous government. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Nasser Kanaani said in his weekly press conference that Iran would “not hesitate” to respond to any “foolish moves” by Israel. Referencing threats made to Iranian leaders, Kanaani said the comments are “indicative of the nature of this terrorist regime” and also pointed to Israel’s alleged “resorting to terrorist moves to achieve its illegitimate objectives.” This rhetoric is likewise not unprecedented and consistent with the verbal exchange of hostilities between the two sides, yet the remarks understandably risk an escalation in regional tensions over the near term. So far, with the exception of Israeli airstrikes in Syria, this has yet to translate into hostilities on the ground.

Israel claims Iran is building airport in southern Lebanon
In the same security conference, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Iran is building an airport in southern Lebanon, approximately 20 kilometers from the Israeli border, and expressed concerns that the site may be used for attacks on Israeli territory. Satellite images from the site depicted a runway located near a forested area, with Iranian and Hezbollah flags reportedly seen in the vicinity, however the date for the images was not specified.

Iranian and Hezbollah officials have not commented on the allegation however, aside from the above-noted remarks by Mossad Director Barnea, the claim follows recent tensions involving Hezbollah elements near the Israeli border, where Israel accuses Hezbollah of erecting tents and expanding its presence near the so-called Blue Line. In March this year, Israeli officials also blamed Hezbollah for the detonation of a roadside IED near the Megiddo junction in northern Israel – an incident which, combined with the uptick in Israeli-Palestinian hostilities, contributed to an increase in tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.

The alleged construction of an airport near the Israeli border remains difficult to verify however the area is associated with the presence of Hezbollah and other Iran-linked elements. While claims that the airport will be used to conduct attacks against Israeli territory may be exaggerated, the concerns understandably form an additional source of tension on top of the above-discussed escalation in rhetoric. Related dynamics surrounding the airport construction will therefore be monitored.

Syria

Israeli airstrikes conducted in Latakia and Hama provinces
Relatively routine Israeli airstrike activity was again noted this week as Syrian state-linked claimed strikes targeted positions and sites in the coastal province of Latakia and Homs province on 13 September. At least two Syrian government soldiers were killed and six others were wounded in the strikes as a result. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) the initial strikes targeted warehouses utilized by Lebanese Hezbollah in the Tartous countryside of Latakia – a day after trucks carrying weapons and transported by the group arrived in the warehouses. The second set of operations targeted what were described as weapons storage facilities and a research center in the Hama countryside. As usual, Israeli officials refrained from commenting on these operations which form part of a long-standing Israeli effort to disrupt Iran-linked arms shipments to Syria. The attacks this week marked the first since the targeting of Aleppo International Airport in late August which damaged the runway and temporarily disrupted airport operations.

Protests in Sweida province turn violent
Following weeks of relatively peaceful demonstrations, the unrest in Sweida province, southern Syria, showed signs of escalation this week when protesters attempted to storm a local party headquarters in Sweida city. On 13 September, hundreds of protesters reportedly gathered near the office to reiterate criticism of the government and the situation escalated when several protesters attempted to gain entry into the premises. Security guards deployed at the site opened fire in response and reportedly wounded at least three individuals. Video footage disseminated on social media depicted individuals running from the scene as gunshots were being fired in the vicinity, however government officials dispute that any casualties were inflicted.

The reported violence follows weeks of overall peaceful gatherings in the city which were initially sparked by the poor state of the local economy and concerns over rising inflation. Demonstrators gradually shifted however to voice anti-government sentiments and to express calls for the removal of President Bashar al-Assad, with protests reminiscent of those that preceded the outbreak of the Syrian civil war. In response to the latest incident, local leaders in the Druze Community – which make up the predominant demographic in the city – strongly criticized the government security forces for their actions and said they “will not give up their peaceful demands.” Additional protests remain likely and the outbreak of the unrest over the past month remains important to monitor considering the outlook for the demonstrations to spread to other areas.

Iraq

GoI confirms steps to remove opposition groups as deadline looms
Following weeks of relative silence and uncertainty, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein confirmed in a press conference on 13 September that the Government of Iraq has taken steps to remove Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups from the border region with Iran. This is in accordance with the security agreement signed between Iran and Iraq in March this year and follows a gradual increase in diplomatic pressure from Iranian officials on Iraq and the KRG to implement the agreement before 19 September.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian in Tehran on 13 September, Hussein said Baghdad and Erbil have “cooperated to present this plan, commit to it, and implement it” and that implementation of the agreement will be completed during the week. Hussein added that “necessary measures were taken to remove these groups from the border areas and they were housed in camps deep inside Iraqi Kurdistan.”  These steps were also confirmed by KRG President Nechirvan Barzani who, in a separate press conference on the same day, said measures have been taken to implement the bilateral security agreement. Barzani added that, as a result, there is “no pretext for a military operation.” For his part, Amirabdollahian praised the GoI’s commitment to the agreement and hoped that it would be implemented “on the ground in the coming days.” Related developments and steps to relocate these factions will be monitored closely over the coming days and additional details surrounding these efforts are likely to emerge. The risk of renewed cross-border activity on and after 19 September cannot be ruled out however but would, like previous activity, likely be confined to areas near the Iranian border. Further context is provided in the full report.

President Erdogan reportedly postpones visit to Iraq as Turkey files new court case against Iraq
Various sources this week stated that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan decided to postpone the planned visit to Iraq “indefinitely”. Reports citing both Iraqi and Turkish anonymous government sources offered divergent explanations for the decision, with some reports citing disagreements over discussion topics while others pointed to prevailing conditions “unfavorable” to hold the meeting. The decision has not been officially confirmed by either government and one government official reportedly denied that the visit has been canceled and said that a date has just not been decided. The same official was quoted saying Baghdad “continues to prepare for Erdogan’s visit.”

Regardless of their veracity, the timing of the reported postponement is noteworthy as the dispute between Baghdad and Iraq over the oil export issue continues and shows signs of potentially escalating on a diplomatic level. See further context provided in the Talos Weekly Analysis Report.

Turkey

US impose sanctions on Turkish entities over support for Russia
On 14 September, the Biden administration imposed sanctions on five Turkish entities, including companies and private individuals, for supporting Russia. The companies include entities involved in shipping and trading involved in conducting repair works on vessels linked to the Russian Ministry of Defense and who are subjected to US sanctions. The companies were part of a list of some 150 entities worldwide targeted as the US ramps up pressure on those facilitating or aiding Russia’s war in Ukraine.

While not explicitly aimed at Turkey, the sanctions come at a sensitive time and may affect US efforts to incentivize Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership. Earlier this week, President Biden and President Erdogan met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in India, and Erdogan later said his government was “seriously upset” that the US is conditioning the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey on its approval of Sweden’s membership application. The president stated that the decision rests with the Turkish Parliament and that it is not up to him to approve Sweden’s ascension.

The Biden administration officially maintains that the issue of Sweden’s membership and the F-16 program are separate, however various reports citing anonymous US officials have repeatedly claimed that the two issues are linked. Regardless, members of Congress in both parties have likewise conditioned their approval of the sale on the progress of NATO expansion, meaning the Turkish parliament will likely have to approve the resolution in support of Sweden’s request if progress on the F-16 agreement will be achieved. Erdogan’s remarks this week however form a negative indicator and suggest that the president, which has considerable influence over MPs in the parliament, may still not be fully supportive. No significant Turkish reactions to the sanctions this week were noted however the announcement may further negatively impact US-Turkey relations as the negotiations over the F-16 program and NATO continue.

Saudi Arabia

Israeli delegation arrived in Saudi Arabia
In a symbolically significant development, a delegation of Israeli government officials arrived in Saudi Arabia on 10 September to attend the 45th session of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee in Riyadh. The delegation was led by Eli Escusido, the head of Israel’s Antiquities Authority, but also included Israeli diplomats. Reports citing anonymous officials said the visit did not constitute a bilateral meeting and it was unclear if the delegation would meet with Saudi counterparts during the trip.

The meeting has been described by some sources as the first time Israeli officials formally attended an event in Saudi Arabia however earlier this year another delegation reportedly attended a video game conference in the kingdom. During his previous term, Benjamin Netanyahu also visited Jeddah to meet with Crown Prince Muhammed Bin Salma – in an informal and secret meeting set up by the Trump administration that governments at the time denied took place. The visit this week is set to raise expectations of an impending normalization between the two sides amidst recently discussed efforts by the Biden administration to promote the process. While purely a symbolic gesture, the visit was likely arranged to further the rapprochement and also to gauge any regional, or domestic, reactions to it. In response, Iranian officials expressed concerns about the report and emphasized more broadly its rejection of steps by regional stakeholders to normalize ties with Israel. Outside this largely expected response, regional reactions were relatively muted.

Two members of security forces executed for treason
On 14 September, Saudi Arabia announced the executions of two members of the Ministry of Defense who were trialed and sentenced for treason in 2017. While the details of their activities remain limited, the two former members of the security forces were reportedly deployed to Yemen and fought in the Houthi Movement when their activities were exposed. The executions follow similar sentences made in 2021 against three members of the security forces on charges of treason and “cooperating with the enemy.”

Bahrain

Bahrain and the US sign strategic and economic agreements
On 13 September, Bahrain and the US signed a strategic and economic agreement to enhance cooperation towards what officials described as a shared regional vision. The deal was signed during a meeting between Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Prime Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa in Washington DC, and in a press conference Blinken said the agreement would “expand defense and intelligence cooperation” as well as strengthening regional stability, economic cooperation, and technological innovation. The agreement (available here) outlined a series of principles and areas of strategic and security cooperation including a pledge that any acts of external aggression would be “a matter of grave concern” to both sides. The deal also outlined steps to enhance the integration of defensive systems and deterrent capabilities, including “air and missile defense systems”.

The last point is noteworthy considering previous steps discussed by US officials in recent years regarding efforts to integrate regional air defense systems as part of a joint, collective deterrence system. These efforts were accelerated by a series of Houthi UAV strikes targeting the UAE and an increase in Iran-linked attacks targeting US sites in Iraq and Syria during 2021 and 2022, but progress has since been limited and the reported involvement of Israel was at the time assessed to restrict its prospects considering political sensitivities. The agreement this week should also be seen as part of a broader US-led effort to re-engage with regional partners in the Gulf, with US officials reportedly working to conclude similar agreements with the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Yemen

Houthi delegation arrived in Riyadh for peace negotiations
A delegation of representatives from the Houthi Movement arrived in Saudi Arabia this week to hold discussions with Saudi government officials. The Head of the Houthi Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat, confirmed in a statement that the movement would go to Riyadh to “complete consultations with the Saudi side” and Saudi media outlets reported that a 10-member delegation arrived in the Saudi capital on 14 September. As for writing, details of the discussions have not been provided but updates can be expected in the coming days.

The meeting represents the most significant development in the peace process since UN-backed mediation efforts in March that followed the Iran-Saudi agreement and will undeniably raise hopes for a permanent breakthrough on current attempts to formalize a ceasefire agreement. The visit this week was also preceded by an increase in likely related diplomatic activity, including Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman’s visit to Oman on 11 September and a letter exchanged between Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi and King Salman on 13 September. The details of the discussions in Muscat and the content of the letters remain unclear, but considering the subsequent visit it is fully plausible that an agreement over Yemen has been reached between Iran and Saudi Arabia that precipitated the negotiations in Riyadh.