Iran

Iran and Saudi Arabia restore relations
In an agreement brokered by China, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced the re-establishment of diplomatic ties and the reopening of embassies following seven years of severed relations. The agreement was announced in an official ceremony in Beijing on 10 March and attended by the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council Ali Shamkani and Saudi Arabia’s National Security Advisor Musaid al-Aiban, with a tripartite communique expressing intent to fully restore ties and reopen embassies within two months. According to Iranian state-linked outlets, the foreign ministers of both countries are also set to hold a meeting in the near future to make the “necessary arrangements” to exchange ambassadors. The statement thanked China for hosting and supporting the discussions, but also noted Iraq and Oman’s role in promoting talks between the two sides in 2021 and 2022.

Given the previous lack of progress in the negotiations, the agreement is understandably hailed as a positive and somewhat surprising development in the region. An assessed increase in tensions concerning the progress of the Iranian nuclear program and the absence of meaningful diplomatic engagement following the nationwide protests in Iran from September onwards – which Iranian officials largely blame on “foreign enemies” – were also assessed to reduce the outlook for further progress. From a Saudi standpoint, the decision to restore ties underscores a clear and rather sudden belief that a resolution to issues concerning Iran is best achieved through dialogue and diplomacy following years of a more confrontational approach. For Iran, the rapprochement serves to limit its regional isolation which has arguably increased since the advent of the protests and the deteriorating relationship with the West. Officials on both sides have praised the agreement and confirmed the “mutual desire” to resolve regional differences, with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan saying this week he is “looking forward” to meeting counterpart Hossein Amir Abdollahian in the near future.

Despite optimistic rhetoric, the implications of the agreement remain to be seen and will be revealed in the coming months. Meaningful progress on key regional issues affecting the Iran-Saudi relationship – such as Iran’s support for regional proxy factions, the Yemen conflict and political competition in Lebanon and Iraq – will only reasonably be achieved through compromise and negotiations. While Iranian officials expressed optimism that the agreement will promote peace efforts in Yemen and encourage dialogue in Lebanon, these results remain to be seen and the immediate reactions from Houthi officials were less enthusiastic (see Yemen section).

Agreement significant diplomatic victory for China
The agreement also constitutes an important diplomatic victory for China and underscores Beijing’s growing footprint in the region beyond economic matters. For Beijing, a reduction in Saudi-Iranian tensions enables it to pursue and expand ties with both the GCC countries and Iran, having signed partnership agreements with both sides in recent years. To recall, the agreement was precipitated by a recent visit by President Ibrahim Raisi to Beijing, and President Xi Jinping’s visit to the GCC summit in December. The Iranian-Saudi rivalry was widely regarded as a zero-sum game for China that would limit its ability to engage both sides, and a reduction in these tensions will naturally remove such barriers moving forward. Shortly after the agreement, various reports discussed China’s intent to hold a CGG-Iran summit in the near future – an unprecedented event that would promote normalization between Iran and the other GCC states, and further consolidate Beijing’s diplomatic role in the region.

China’s regional involvement and the expansion of its engagement beyond economic matters constitutes a potential object of concern for the US however officials have largely downplayed the implications of China’s mediation in the Saudi-Iran agreement. In a comment on 13 March, the White House said it was not in a position to “mediate” between the two countries, and added that China’s efforts to “promote escalation” are “not adverse” to US interests. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also described the restoration of ties as a ”positive development”, and added that Riyadh kept the US closely informed of the developments.

Iran reportedly finalizes agreement to purchase Russian jets
Iranian state-linked sources reported this week that Iran finalized an agreement to purchase Russian Su-35 fighter jets. Citing Iran’s permanent representative to the UN, state-linked IRIB reported that “the Sukhoi-35 fighter planes are technically acceptable to Iran and Iran has finalized a contract for their purchase” however no confirmation from Russian officials has been reported.

Iran’s intent to purchase the fighter jets has been widely discussed since the expiration of the UN-enforced arms embargo in October 2020. While confirmation remains elusive, reports of an agreement have been circulating in recent months, including in conjunction with the unveiling of a new Iranian underground air force base (the Eagle 44) in February which state-linked sources claim is capable of operating various types of fighter jets. If confirmed, the purchase would significantly enhance Iran’s fleet of fighter jets which predominantly includes US-made aircraft (including the F-4 Phantom and F-5) purchased prior to the 1979 revolution and Chinese-made J-7 Chengdu. The purchase would also underscore growing levels of military cooperation between Russia and Iran, following Tehran’s widely reported supply of combat UAVs to support the war in Ukraine.

US denies prisoner exchange with Iran
The US State Department strongly denied claims made by Iranian officials regarding a possible prisoner exchange agreement between the two countries. On 12 March, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian informed a state-linked media channel that Iran “reached an agreement in recent days” and that “we will see the exchange of prisoners in the short term” if “all goes well on the American side.”  Department of State Spokesperson Ned Price dismissed the remarks the next day as a “cruel lie” and accused Iran of exacerbating the suffering of affected families. Price stressed that the administration is working hard to secure the release of three US citizens wrongfully detained in Iran. The White House National Security Council also denied the veracity of the report and likewise accused Tehran of lying on the matter.

Iranian officials arrest over 100 in connection with school attacks
On 11 March, the Iranian Interior Ministry announced the detention of over 100 individuals involved in the suspected gas attacks targeting schools across the country in recent months. The announcement came days after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei ordered an investigation into the several hundreds of cases primarily affecting girls schools across the country.

The statement disseminated by the official IRNA News Agency implied possible links between the detainees and the People’s Mujahedeen of Iran or Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) – an Iranian resistance group whose members were exiled to France in 1981 and currently based in Albania. The report by IRNA added that the “investigation of these criminal people, including their possible connection with MEK is ongoing.” For their part, a spokesperson for MEK dismissed the accusation as an attempt by the government to cover up its own role in the poisonings and urged Tehran to accept an international, independent investigation into the cases.

Syria

Rocket attack in eastern Syria follows suspected coalition and Israeli strikes
Hostilities involving US/Israel-Iran tensions continued this week in Syria, with suspected coalition and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran-linked sites during the week. Following on from the Israeli missile strikes targeting Aleppo International Airport the previous week, a suspected coalition UAV strike targeted a weapons storage facility in Deir Ez Zour province on 8 March.  Local media sources said the operation targeted and destroyed a site used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with at least three militia members killed and eight wounded.

Days later, on 12 March, Syrian government sources said Israeli airstrikes targeted sites in Masyaf, Hama province, and in the Tartous governate in western Syria. The report added that several missiles were intercepted by air defense systems but that at least three “soldiers” were killed. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said the operation also targeted Iran-linked arms storage facilities and killed three individuals. As usual, Israeli officials refrained from commenting on the reports. In an assessed but limited response from Iranian-backed groups, the international coalition said two 107mm rockets were launched towards the Green Village military base in Deir Ez Zour province on the evening of 13 March. The statement added that no casualties or damages were inflicted but did not identify a perpetrator.

As previously discussed, the current escalation in predominantly Israeli operations follows reports of a proliferation of Iranian-backed groups in Syria in the aftermath of the February earthquake which set conditions for an increase in Israeli airstrikes. To recall, the IRGC and affiliated factions took a commanding role in administering aid operations shortly after the earthquake, with Israeli officials expressing concerns that aid convoys and shipments would be used to transport weapons and equipment into the country. According to western media reports citing unnamed intelligence officials, the targeting of Aleppo International Airport last week aimed to disrupt Iranian supplies of weapons through civilian air transportation, with this week’s activities likewise targeting arms depots and sites used to store military materials. With Iranian responses limited to the above-discussed rocket attack, similar operations can be expected to continue over the near future however the escalation will add pressure for a more concerted Iranian response should current patterns persist.

UN Envoy calls for resumption of dialogue
The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, called for a renewed attempt to find a political solution to the conflict in Syria in the aftermath of the February earthquake. Speaking to press reporters on 8 March, Pedersen said the disaster served as a “wake-up call to the world that the Syrian tragedy is far from over” and the steps need to be taken to “unlock progress” on the peace negotiations. The envoy specifically called for new meetings within the committee formed to draft a new Syrian constitution, which ended the previous year without progress.

To recall, a series of UN-hosted meetings were held the previous year between government and opposition representatives under the so-called Geneva dialogue with a view to drafting a new constitution and reaching a political settlement based on UN resolution 2254. Progress was slow and the meetings were discontinued after the Syrian government, encouraged by Russia, called for a change of venue, with no further progress noted since. Pedersen’s latest effort is likely timed to capitalize on the more conciliatory approach adopted by the Syrian government and the West in the aftermath of the earthquake, where both sides have shown a willingness to compromise to aid humanitarian efforts. To recall, the Syrian Government agreed to open additional border crossings into opposition-held areas while the West has agreed to temporarily lift sanctions that would have prevented aid operations in government-held territories. While a permanent political settlement remains elusive and highly unlikely, a resumption of peace negotiations would constitute a positive indicator.

Turkey

Death toll from earthquake exceeds 54 thousand
On 13 March, Turkey’s Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu announced that the official death toll from the 6 February earthquake exceeds 48 thousand, with more than 115 thousand injured. With casualty figures from Syria indicating over six thousand killed, the total death toll now exceeds 54 thousand – a number far higher than the initial estimates and still likely to climb as more than a thousand victims remain unaccounted for according to Soylu.

Meanwhile, the Turkish government revealed plans to set up over 115 thousand container homes as temporary shelters. The statement came shortly after Qatar pledged to send 10 thousand containers previously used as accommodation for fans attending the FIFA World Cup. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also announced an ambitious plan to rebuild the homes and buildings affected by the earthquake within a year, as the opposition intensifies criticism of the government’s handling of the disaster ahead of the national elections.

Constitutional court unfreezes HDP assets
On 9 March, the Turkish Constitutional Court reversed a previous ruling that froze bank accounts and assets belonging to the People’s Democratic Party (HPD) – the Kurdish-dominated, second-largest opposition party in the country. To recall, the initial ruling cited the HDP’s alleged links to the PKK and was seen as a government-led effort to ban, or at least disadvantage, the HDP ahead of the national elections in May. No reason for the sudden reversal of the ruling was given however the decision on 9 March is set to unfreeze some $25.8 million for the party.

Israel

Protests over judicial overhaul continue
Nationwide protests denouncing the judicial reforms initiated by the new Israeli Government continued this week. According to western media reports citing protest organizers, over 500 thousand people participated in the demonstrations for the tenth consecutive week amidst widespread concerns that the planned overhaul will undermine the independence of the judiciary. On 12 March, more than 240 thousand reportedly assembled in Tel Aviv while tens of thousands gathered in Jerusalem and other big cities across the country.

The protesters symbolically blocked the main airport road in Tel Aviv on 8 March to prevent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from accessing the airport on his way to a state visit to Italy. The Prime Minister had to be airlifted as a result. Aside from broader concerns over its constitutional implications, critics also describe the overhaul as an attempt by Netanyahu to dismiss the corruption charges leveled against him – an accusation he strongly denies by insisting the reforms have nothing to do with the trial against him. Despite calls from Israeli President Isaac Herzog and several opposition figures for the proposed reforms to be dropped, the government remains intent on pushing it through parliament, with another reading of the proposal held on 14 March. Additional protests can be expected as a result over the coming weeks.

Protests interrupt Secretary of Defence visit
The demonstrations also affected US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin’s visit to Israel, as part of the previously discussed regional tour. Instead of meeting with Israeli officials in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, the venues were changed to a site near Ben Gurion Airport due to the disruptions. The US’ implicit criticism of the reforms was evident by Austin’s remarks emphasising that the strength of US and Israeli democracy lies in the system of “checks and balances” and “an independent judiciary”. While stopping short of directly criticizing the government, similar rhetoric has been repeatedly expressed by US officials in recent weeks.

Austin’s visit was also marked by subtle disagreements over how to stop the Iranian nuclear program, with the Defence Secretary reiterating that “diplomacy” is the best way to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. For his part, Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant refrained from mentioning diplomatic efforts and opted to stress the need to keep “all options” open to prevent Iran from weaponizing.

Saudi Arabia

Senate confirms new ambassador to Saudi Arabia
On 14 March, the US Senate confirmed Michael Ratney as the new US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia. Ratney was nominated by President Joe Biden in April 2022 and has served as the deputy director of the Foreign Service Institute of the State Department. He is a former chargé d’Affaires at the US Embassy in Jerusalem and acted as deputy chief of mission at the US Embassy in Qatar. The ambassador post in Riyadh has been vacant since John Abizai left the position in January 2021. In his initial remarks, Ratney said is committed to pursuing a “strong and sustainable US-Saudi partnership” and that talks with his Saudi counterparts will largely focus on energy supplies.

Saudi Arabia and Boeing sign large-scale agreement
In what has been described as a historic agreement, two Saudi airlines agreed to purchase 80 Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft. A statement by the White House said the agreement is worth approximately $37 billion and praised the deal as another milestone in the “cooperation between Saudi Arabia and American industry.” No timeline for the delivery of the aircraft was specified.

The two airlines involved include Saudi Arabian Airlines – the current national flagship carrier – and Riyadh Air, a newly started airline created by the state-backed Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund and announced on 12 March. The purchase is part of an overarching plan to enhance Saudi Arabia’s status as a regional travel hub and implicitly challenge Dubai and Qatar in this field. As formulated in the government’s “Vision 2030” initiative, Riyadh aims to triple the number of annual passengers traveling through the kingdom by the end of the decade.

Qatar

Former Foreign Minister appointed new Prime Minister
On 8 March, official state media reported that former Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani was sworn in as the new Prime Minister of Qatar. Few details were provided but al-Thani replaces Sheikh Khalid bin Khalifa bin Abdulaziz Al Thani – another member of the ruling family – in the position which he held since 2020. The cabinet reshuffle was as usual based on a decree by Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani however no specific reason for the cabinet reshuffle was reported. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken welcomed the appointment and praised the enduring US-Qatar partnership following the announcement. Abdulrahman al-Thani has been one of Qatar’s most public and recognized officials in recent years, having served as foreign minister since 2016, during the Saudi-led blockade 2017-2021 and the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

Yemen

UN-led talks aimed at prisoner exchange agreement
The UN confirmed that representatives of the Houthi Movement and the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government commenced talks aimed at implementing a prisoner exchange on 11 March. The discussions are reportedly taking place in Switzerland under the mediation of UN Envoy Hans Grundberg who urged both sides to “engage in serious and forthcoming dialogue” and “release as many prisoners are possible:” Yemeni media sources said the negotiations will take place for 11 days and are consistent with a 2018 agreement reached between the two sides that called for both sides to release all individuals detained in connection to the conflict.

Houthi spokesperson says Iran-Saudi agreement will have “no impact”
Iran and Saudi Arabia’s decision to resume diplomatic relations has understandably raised hopes for an associated positive impact on the Yemen conflict, with speculative reports indicating the restoration of ties may have been precipitated by an agreement related to Yemen. While plausible, Houthi officials continue to publicly downplay the role of Iran in the country. Commenting on the Iran-Saudi agreement this week, Houthi spokesperson Abdulwahab al-Mahbashi informed the Lebanon-based al-Mayadeen TV channel that the group is “not subordinated” to Iran and that resolving the conflict in Yemen can only be achieved through negotiations between Riyadh and Sanaa. Al-Mahbashi added that the only thing that will protect Saudi Arabia from the Houthi Movement is to stop its “aggression” against Yemen.

The remarks follow the above-mentioned statements by Iranian officials suggesting the agreement with Saudi Arabia may contribute to bringing about a political solution to the conflict in Yemen. Despite its clear military and diplomatic support, the Houthi Movement has always been keen to emphasize its independence from Iran – a claim also consistent with Iran’s attempt to distance itself from the movement and deny providing military support. The implications of the Iran-Saudi agreement on the conflict remain to be seen. While the extent of Iran’s influence over the movement in terms of its willingness to engage in peace negotiations remains difficult to assess, Tehran’s military and material support constitutes an undeniable source of leverage and the agreement may encourage Iran to adopt a more proactive role in the peace process.