Iran

Iran and US resumed JCPOA dialogue in Qatar without progress. Negotiations between Iran and the US over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) resumed this week on 27 June in Doha, Qatar, and concluded two days later without significant progress. The EU representative Enrique Mora described the talks as “intense” and pledged that work would continue “with even greater urgency” to bring back the deal. The resumption of the negotiations was preceded by increased EU mediation and several steps taken by Iran to ramp up pressure, including the acceleration of uranium enrichment and reduction of the nuclear breakout time. Further context is provided in the full regional report on this issue.

Iran supports reopening embassy in Saudi Arabia. As discussed, PM Kadhimi’s visits to Jeddah and Tehran were widely seen as promoting the resumption of the stalled Iranian-Saudi dialogue that has been ongoing under Iraqi mediation since early 2021. In a sign of progress, Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollagian said after his meeting with Kadhimi that Iran “supports the reopening of embassies in the capitals of the two countries.” Similar rhetoric has been expressed by Iranian officials in the past without materializing, but cautious optimism remains in effect that the dialogue will contribute to a reduction in regional tensions. Further context is provided in the full regional report on this issue.

Close encounter between US and Iranian naval vessels as Iran accelerates nuclear program. A US naval vessel reportedly fired a flare shot to fend off an approaching IRGC speedboat in the Strait of Hormuz. Video footage and a statement released by the US 5th Fleet said the Cyclone-class patrol ship USS Sirocco experienced a close encounter with three so-called Boghammar-type speed boats in the strategic waterway and that the encounter lasted approximately an hour. The incident took place as Iran separately announced intent to install a second set of advanced centrifuges, setting conditions for an increase in regional tensions related to the acceleration of the Iran nuclear program.

Syria

Damascus Airport operational again following Israeli airstrikes. Damascus International Airport resumed operations on 23 June, nearly two weeks after being targeted and significantly damaged in an Israeli airstrike on 10 June. To recall, the airstrike caused significant damage to the main runway as well as unspecified infrastructure inside the airport perimeter. International flights were diverted during the period to Aleppo international airport.

US UAV strike killed leader of AQ-linked group. On 28 June, US CENTCOM announced the killing of Abu Hamzah al-Yemeni, a senior member of the Al-Qaeda-linked Horas al-Din group. The UAV strike targeted a vehicle transporting al-Yemeni south of Idlib city, in northwestern Syria.

Turkey

Turkey lifts objections to Sweden/Finland NATO membership. As widely reported, Turkey this week lifted objections to Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership, paving the way for both countries to join the alliance. The objections pertained to Sweden and Finland’s alleged sheltering of individuals with historic links to the PKK, and the decision was announced following extensive meetings between officials from the three countries. A 10-article memorandum was signed by the countries that included promises to address several Turkish security concerns and to stop activities seen by Turkey as supporting the PKK and affiliated groups.

Foreign minister says Iran will not oppose Turkish operation in Syria. In a change of rhetoric, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said Tehran would not oppose a new Turkish military incursion into northern Syria. Having previously expressed concerns about an impending operation, Amirabdollahian added that Iran “understands” Turkey’s security concerns and that an “operation might be needed.” While sharing mutual concerns about Kurdish separatism, Iran’s position now contradicts that of the allied Syrian government and Russia, both firmly opposed to any expansion of Turkish activity in the country. The statement is also noteworthy given Turkey’s earlier claim to have foiled an Iran-linked plot to assassinate Israeli citizens in the country.

Iraq

Suspected Iran-linked attacks targeting KRG gas field. Between 22 and 25 June, a total of three rocket attacks targeted the Khor Mor Gas Plant, located in the Chamchamal district of western Sulaymaniyah province. The field is operated by UAE-based energy firms Crescent Petroleum and Dana Gas. Days later, Dana Gas announced a temporary suspension of an ongoing project to expand the field. The company announced however that production would continue as normal. Further context is provided in the full Talos featured report available to subscribers.

Oil services companies to comply with Federal Supreme Court ruling. On 27 June, according to a letter sent to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil and cited by international media outlets, US-based oil service company Schlumberger (SLM) announced that the company intends to comply with the February Supreme Court ruling against the 2007 KRG Oil and Gas Law. As a result, the company will not be applying for new tenders in the KRG oil and gas sector without Baghdad’s explicit consent. Separately, US-based company Bakher Hughes likewise expressed intent to comply with the ruling.

Iraq parliament approved replacement MPs following Sadrist resignations. On 23 June, Iraq’s parliament held an extraordinary session in order to approve replacements for 73 Sadrist MPs following the mass resignations in mid-June.  A total of 64 new MPs were sworn in during the session, with the remaining nine substitutes declining to attend. A large number of the new MPs are members of the Coordination Framework, which includes several Iran-aligned parties, making the alliance the largest bloc in parliament. With parliament in recess, efforts have since continued unsuccessfully on the sidelines to further the government formation process, however no significant breakthrough has been achieved.

Iranian-aligned social media outlets release personal information pertaining to several officers in Iraqi intelligence services. On 19 June, Sabereen News and other social media posts related to Iranian-backed groups, released personal information pertaining to several officers in Iraqi intelligence services, the most senior of which was Maj. Gen. Hisham Adnan Lafta al-Jabiri, the director general of the Ministry of Interior’s Intelligence and Counterterrorism Directorate.  The information leaks included allegations that the officers took part in the 3 January 2020 US assassination of former Quds force commander Qassim Soleimani, acted as liaisons for Israel and the UAE, and related allegations of involvement in actions against Iranian-backed groups.

Israel

Israeli Foreign Minister praises Turkish cooperation in foiling Iran-linked plot. Meeting with Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavosuglu Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid thanked the Turkish government for foiling an Iran-linked plot to target Israeli citizens in the country. Earlier in the week, Turkish media announced the arrest of five Iranian nationals suspected of planning attacks in Istanbul. “In recent weeks, the lives of Israeli citizens have been saved thanks to security and diplomatic cooperation between Israel and (Turkey),” Lapid said in a press conference after meeting with Cavosuglu. To recall, earlier this month, the Israeli National Security Service issued a travel warning, urging Israeli citizens to leave Turkey.

Suspected Iran-linked cyberattack targeted Israeli company. On the evening of 28 June, according to Sabereen News and other Iran-linked sites, a cyberattack was reportedly conducted against Cellebrite – an Israeli digital forensics and intelligence company. Two suspected Iran-linked hacking groups “Altahrea” and “1877 team” claimed responsibility for the apparent denial of service attack (DDOS) that temporarily disrupted the company website. Cellebrite is reportedly used by various western law enforcement and security agencies. The statement by Sabereen News said the cyberattack was launched from Iraqi territory.

Israeli government dissolves parliament to set up new elections. On 21 June, the government led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett announced that it would dissolve the Knesset (Israeli Parliament) following a period of prolonged government deadlock. The decision sets conditions for the fifth national elections to be held in two years, with the next polls expected to be held this coming fall. Preliminary opinion polls put former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the front runner, despite previous corruption charges, but polls differ regarding whether the Likud Party are likely to retain a parliamentary majority required to form a new government.

Saudi Arabia

Bin Salman on regional visit. Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman embarked on a regional visit with stops in Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey between 20 and 22 June. As widely anticipated, Bin Salman met with President Erdogan in Turkey, with the two sides hailing a “new era of cooperation.” The visit is the first since the 2018 killing of US-Saudi journalist Jamal Khassoggi in Istanbul but follows several steps taken by both sides to mend ties during 2022. Bin Salman’s tour was widely perceived as an attempt to restore his image in the region and comes ahead of the planned visit by President Joe Biden in mid-July.

UK discussing free trade agreement with GCC countries. UK Trade Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan visited Riyadh to discuss a new free trade agreement with the six members of the GCC, including Saudi Arabia. The outcome of the talks was not immediately specified, but a statement by Trevelyan said an agreement may be concluded within 12-18 months.

Qatar

Qatari Emir visited Egypt as part of normalization effort. In his first visit to Egypt since the countries restored diplomatic relations in early 2021, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani met with Egyptian counterpart President Abdel Fattah in Cairo on 25 June. Official statements said the two sides discussed various issues, including cooperation on energy and agriculture, as well as President Biden’s upcoming trip to the region. Egyptian state-media said the meeting also discussed efforts to fully restore diplomatic ties that were completely severed during the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar in 2017.

Yemen

AQ suspected of VBIED attack in Aden. On 29 June, at least six people were killed and several others wounded when a Vehicle-borne IED detonated in Aden. The attack reportedly targeted a convoy transporting military officials of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council. No group claimed responsibility for the attack, however local officials suspect the involvement of Al Qaeda which has recently intensified operations in the country. Meanwhile, the truce between the Houthi Movement and the Saudi-backed government remains in place in the country, despite continued, limited violations. Most significantly, on 30 June, according to local reports, Saudi-backed government forces intercepted a Houthi UAV in Khamis Mushait. Operations at Abha International Airport were temporarily suspended as a result. No official statements were issued by the Saudi coalition but the attack is the first reported cross-border operation targeting the Saudi mainland since the truce came into effect in early April.