Executive Summary

• Israel intensified airstrikes and operations

• Druze hostilities continued in Suwayda province

• Negotiations continued as Druze leaders reject government narratives

• Israeli airstrikes provoke reactions

• Interim president al-Sharaa makes first trip to Europe

• President Sharaa yet to accept Arab League invitation

• Increase in IS activity continues in eastern provinces

Druze hostilities continued in Suwayda province

Security-related developments in the country were understandably dominated by the escalation in hostilities between Druze factions, Sunni militants and government forces in Druze-majority areas of Damascus, Suwayda and Daraa provinces. At the beginning of the week, the security forces concluded a large-scale security operation in southern Damascus province, resulting in multiple arrests of both Druze and Sunni militia elements, and an elevated security posture was reported during the week in the southern areas of the province. Additional deployments were sent to areas bordering Suwayda as well as the Damascus-Suwayda Road, and with the exception of minor incidents, no major hostilities were reported in the Damascus countryside over the week.

The situation in neighboring Suwayda remains more volatile however and clashes between Sunni militia, pro-government tribal elements and Druze factions continued to be reported until 4 May. Most notably, major clashes involving mortar fire and heavy machine gun fire were reported on 4 and 5 May between the Druze-dominated As Suwayda Military Council (AMC) and Beduin elements in the Dara and Tha’la areas. Reports stated that elements of the Free Syrian Army, including the so-called Euphrates Volcano forces, joined the clashes, which continued until the early hours of 6 May. Separately, suspected Sunni militia factions circulated anti-Druze sentiments on social media, including accusations and false reports of Druze factions shutting down mosques in the province. These reports were quickly denied but appear to be deliberate efforts by some factions to incite further violence and sectarian tensions, especially in light of the earlier controversy surrounding the audio recording insulting the Prophet Muhammad that sparked the clashes last week. The activities of these groups – including the misinformation campaigns and the military operations – appeared separate from the operations conducted by the government forces, which were confined to Damascus province. Regardless, these activities contribute to an elevated state of tensions in Druze-dominated areas, which is expected to remain over the near term.

The regional and international reactions to the escalation were immediate and significant. On 1 May, French and German officials expressed deep concerns over the violence and called on the government to take concrete steps toward reconciliation and the implementation of transitional justice. The UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen also issued a statement condemning recent Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory, warning that continued attacks risk further escalation and could undermine Syria’s fragile stability. He expressed deep concern over the intensifying violence, particularly around Damascus and Homs, and highlighted the growing number of civilian and security casualties. Pedersen stressed that such strikes, including the most recent Israeli raids, aggravate social tensions and threaten ongoing de-escalation efforts.

The US State Department also commented on the violence and – in an assessed show of support for Israel – condemned the violence and inflammatory rhetoric directed at members of the Druze community in Syria, describing it as “reprehensible and unacceptable.” The statement called on the Syrian Interim Authorities to immediately cease hostilities and ensure accountability for those responsible for the recent violence. It further emphasized the responsibility of these authorities to guarantee the safety and protection of all Syrians, regardless of affiliation. While US support for Israel on the issue is expected, the remarks are noteworthy in the context of recent US signs that it may lift sanctions on Damascus, provided that the interim government takes steps to clear extremist elements from its ranks. Like other international stakeholders, the US will likely closely monitor how the government manages the fallout of the latest violence and what steps it takes to investigate the events and ensure accountability.

Negotiations continued as Druze leaders reject government narratives

Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri

Meanwhile, the government continued negotiations over the review period to de-escalate the violence and also to facilitate the integration of the Druze factions into the formal military structures of the Syrian government. Last week, a ceasefire agreement was reached between the authorities in Damascus, Suwayda and prominent Druze community leaders. Since then, the negotiations have continued with a view to establishing a mechanism to share security responsibility in the Suwayda province. On 3 May, senior Druze sheiks confirmed that a partial agreement had been reached to cede control over the Damascus-Suwayda Road and to allow the deployment of the General Security Services into Suwayda. It should also be noted that the majority of the forces that make up the General Security Service in as Suwayda consist of members of the armed Druze factions, including Men of Dignity, Ahrar Jabal al Arab Gathering, and the Sheikh of Dignity forces.

Overview of Druze-related hostilities 30 April – 8 May. For interactive map, click here

The negotiations have also discussed the presence of arms, with Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri – widely regarded as the Spiritual leader of the Druze in Syria – reportedly insisting that the Druze retain the right to possess heavy weapons. According to reports later in the week, the senior Druze factions – including the Men of Dignity – agreed to hand over unlicensed arms to the government but retained the right to keep heavy weapons for self-protection. The last condition is consistent with long-standing Druze efforts to ensure autonomy and self-defence – demands that predate the fall of the Assad regime and which have underpinned the reluctance of Druze leaders, including Sheikh al-Hijri, to integrate with the interim government.

Related tensions over the week were also driven by conflicting narratives over the events that precipitated the escalation, and which underscore persistent divisions between the Druze and the government in Damascus. Most notably, Sheikh Hekmat Al-Hijri issued a statement condemning the recent violence in Sahnaya and Jaramana, describing the events as massacres committed by “Takfiri IS factions against innocent civilians.” He asserted that these attacks were not acts of civil unrest but a deliberate campaign of terror and domination, aimed at reversing the roles of victim and perpetrator. Rejecting claims that the Druze self-defenders were criminal gangs, he described the assaults as genocidal and unjustified. More broadly, Al-Hijri expressed deep mistrust in the Syrian government, accusing it of collaborating with extremist factions and failing to protect its citizens, and stressed that a government that kills its own people cannot be trusted.

The statement represents a significant rejection of the government and creates conditions for further political tensions between the two sides. The statement is also consistent with rhetoric expressed by other Druze leaders who rejected the government’s narrative of blaming “outlaw gangs” for the alleged killing of 35 General Security personnel and associated calls for disarmament. Senior sheiks, including Al-Aql Abu Osama Youssef Jarbou’ and other officials in the Men of Dignity Movement, have also rejected calls from the interim government to hand over senior Druze leaders and members of armed factions accused by the government of instigating the violence.

Israeli airstrikes provoke reactions

Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes and operations also continued over the week, all consistent with Israel’s expressed intent to protect the Druze minorities in Syria and to intervene on their behalf if necessary. Most notably, on 2 May, one strike impacted less than 500 meters from the Presidential Palace in central Damascus, causing material damage but no casualties. On the same day, a series of Israeli military operations were reported across Damascus countryside and southern Syria, including airstrikes in the governorates of As Suwayda, Quneitra, and Daraa. In the Damascus countryside, Israeli warplanes carried out approximately ten airstrikes, notably in the vicinity of Harasta, targeting the 41st Regiment and Harasta Military Hospital. These strikes caused the death of one civilian and inflicted significant structural damage.

Overview Israeli airstrikes – 1-8 May 2025. For interactive map, click here

Additional attacks were reported near Mount Qasioun, Tal Manin, and abandoned military depots close to Al-Tall. Although Israeli media alleged strikes on tanks at the 1st Division headquarters in Kiswah, Syrian sources contested these claims. In As Suwayda, a UAV strike killed four individuals and caused significant property damage. According to local reports, the drone had been hovering over the area since the morning and the victims attempted to shoot it down with a machine gun, the drone retaliated by bombing the farm. It was confirmed by local reports that the victims were from As Suwayda and were not part of government forces. The strike on the farm coincided with the deployment of General Security Forces to As-Suwayda. Furthermore, the As Suwayda Documentation and Media Center reported later in the evening that Israeli warplanes struck positions north of Khalkhala Airport in northern As Suwayda countryside.

These operations provoked another round of condemnations, both from within Syria but also in the region. The Syrian Presidency condemned the airstrike near the Presidential Palace, characterizing it as a severe escalation that undermines Syria’s sovereignty and national institutions. The strike also received widespread condemnation from the Arab world and beyond, with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other regional bodies rejecting the attack. The Gulf Cooperation Council, the Arab League, and the UN urged Israel to respect Syria’s sovereignty and cease its operations.

Despite this, President al-Sharaa later confirmed, during his trip to France, that negotiations with Israel are ongoing to de-escalate. “There are indirect talks with Israel through mediators to calm and attempt to absorb the situation so that it does not reach a level that both sides lose control over,” the president said. The Israeli side has not confirmed the talks but reports during the week, citing anonymous Israeli and Syrian government officials, said negotiations were being held under UAE mediation. The reports claimed a channel of communication was established between the two in April when al-Sharaa visited the UAE, and that the channel was recently activated in connection with the escalation in the southern region.

The establishment of communication channels is a positive indicator in terms of reducing the outlook for a broader, regional escalation. Israel may use the discussions to put pressure on the government to crack down on the presence of Palestinian leaders in Damascus, and to facilitate strikes against Hezbollah assets and smuggling routes in western Syria. Whether the talks will successfully de-escalate and prevent further Israeli operations remains to be seen however it is initially assessed as unlikely given Israel’s persistent intent to degrade Syria’s military infrastructure and protect the Druze community. At the very least, a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Quneitra appears unlikely in light of statements by Israeli officials that the forces would be deployed in the country indefinitely.

Interim president al-Sharaa makes first trip to Europe

In a landmark visit this week, Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited France in his first official trip to Europe, where he met counterpart Emmanuel Macron and other senior French officials. In a joint press conference on 7 May, the French president pledged support for Syria and said his government is working alongside other allies to lift international sanctions on Syria. The French president also called on the international community to cooperate with the government and help overcome the still significant challenges facing the country. Macron also commented on the recent escalation in violence in southern Syria and the earlier violence in the coastal areas, pointing out that “We cannot ignore the new wave of sectarian violence in Syria” while calling on the government to pursue those responsible.

For his part, the interim president reiterated that steps are being taken to address the violence and prosecute those involved, while also emphasizing the importance of lifting sanctions to assist with the reconstruction effort. More broadly, the president said the two sides discussed “ways to advance joint relations and issues of reconstruction, security, justice, and equality.”

No concrete or more tangible results were reported in connection with the meeting, which is nonetheless an important, symbolic step in Syria’s international re-engagement. France has, in many ways, been at the forefront of efforts to normalize ties with the new government in Damascus and has taken a leading role within the EU to lift economic restrictions, as well as putting pressure on the US to follow suit. In his remarks on 7 May, Macron notably said Washington should be in a “rush to lift sanctions” and also called on the EU to stand by the decision to lift restrictions ahead of the coming June deadline. To recall, the EU and individual states granted a temporary lifting of sanctions earlier this year, but sanctions implemented during the Assad regime and extended in May 2024 remain in place until 1 June. Last week, the UK announced a temporary easing of restrictions while the US continues to contemplate and review the possibility of sanctions relief.

In a separate interview coinciding with al-Sharaa’s visit, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that France will not provide a blank check” to Syria and that it continues to monitor the actions of the interim government, especially with respect to “combating impunity, reducing sectarian violence, and confronting IS. Related concerns were understandably amplified by the latest escalation in violence between pro-government forces, Druze community elements and Sunni militia groups.

President Sharaa yet to accept Arab League invitation

President al-Sharaa’s participation in the upcoming Arab League summit in Baghdad remains subject to uncertainty, amidst standing political sensitivities and security concerns. This week, the Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani reiterated the importance of al-Sharaa’s attendance as part of outlining a “new vision” for Syria. Speaking with a US media outlet, Sudani framed the summit as an important forum to address regional security issues and stressed that President Sharaa, regardless of political affiliations and other dynamics, is the official representative of the Syrian state.

Commenting on the issue days later, the Iraqi Interior Minister Abdul Amir Al-Shammari said however that the Syrian government has still to accept the invitation and noted that Damascus has not communicated with Baghdad on the matter.  Al-Shammari struck a somewhat critical tone and said there was “no security coordination” with the Damascus government regarding the summit. Earlier this week, some Iraqi media sources also stated that al-Sharaa is seeking US security guarantees to attend the summit. An Iraqi media source said the president is requesting protection from a “US-based private security firm” as a condition for the visit, citing fears of potential assassination.

While an official request to obtain security protection has not been confirmed, these latest remarks do raise questions about al-Sharaa’s participation. As previously discussed, the Government of Iraq (GoI) has repeatedly supported al-Sharaa’s participation despite pushback and threats of legal action from pro-Iranian factions in the country. This included a purported arrest warrant issued by a Baghdad court that leaders of some political and militia factions claimed would result in al-Sharaa’s arrest should he visit the summit. Such claims have since been dismissed by the GoI but underscore that the visit, should it proceed, will most likely result in demonstrations, political reactions and, worse, possible hostilities which may shape the government’s decision on whether to attend the summit or not. Related developments will likely be a focal point of reporting over the coming days ahead of the summit scheduled for 17 May.

Increase in IS activity continues in eastern provinces

IS activity levels continued to increase during the week, as the group launched assessed coordinated attacks against SDF positions, civilians and infrastructure sites in the eastern Deir Ez Zour province. While some attacks remain subject to conflicting and limited reporting, with attribution unclear, Talos recorded a total of 11 separate IS attacks over the review period in Deir ez Zour province alone. These included, most notably, operations against an SDF site near the town of Bahra on 6 May that killed two members of the SDF as well as additional attacks on 7 May, targeting SDF positions in Shuhail City. Earlier in the week, a complex attack involving RPGs and firearms targeted an SDF checkpoint in Dhiban, provoking armed clashes in the area, but no casualties were reported. Assaults against civilian and infrastructure targets were also reported, including several attacks targeting individuals who refused to pay Zakat (an Islamic tax). This included both intimidation-style SAF but also a grenade attack targeting a fuel station in Hawajj after the owner refused to pay the tax. The detonation caused material damage but no injuries.

The uptick in activity is a concerning sign and indicative of an IS-led effort to exploit existing security gaps in the eastern provinces, and especially the Deir ez-Zour province, where a majority of IS-linked attacks have been recorded this year. While the capabilities utilized remain predominantly limited to small arms fire, grenades and RPGs that are consistent with previous trends, the frequency of incidents, including assessed coordinated attacks, has increased and forms a consideration in the east. This also forms a concern in the context of the ongoing US troop withdrawal, which raises questions over the ability of the SDF and Syrian government to maintain control in the east. In late April, the coalition under US leadership redeployed several assets in the east as US officials confirmed a plan to withdraw the number of troops by more than half the previous strength.

With limited movement of assets reported across the Syria-Iraq border, the movements so far appear focused on shifting assets towards the Hasaka province and the impact, so far, on counter-terrorism operations remains unclear. Regardless, the resurgence of IS activity will most likely raise pressure on the US to pause further withdrawals, pending further developments. Indeed, French President Macron this week urged the US to suspend further redeployments and to review the security situation before withdrawing troops. On a local level, coalition officials also engaged in meetings this week with SDF and Syrian government officials to discuss security arrangements in the east, with the related impact on counter-terrorism operations expected to form an ongoing discussion point over the coming weeks.