NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Nationwide incidents 

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

• SDF condemns VBIED attack in Manbij
• Iran maintains unclear position on new government
• President Sharaa says elections are not currently feasible
• IED attack without casualties in Mazzeh neighbourhood of Damascus
• Several killed by remnant explosions in Daraa and Suwayda
• Turkish airstrikes target water facilities in eastern Aleppo province
• Family clashes and suspected IS activity reported in Deir Ez Zour
• HTS elements arrested dentist accused of ties with Russia
• Protests over detentions in Latakia and Tartous

STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

SDF condemns VBIED attack in Manbij
The aftermath of the mass-casualty VBIED attack that killed at least 19 people in Manbij on 3 February shaped developments over the review period. So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack which is the deadliest to affect Syria since the fall of the Assad-led government in December, yet the aftermath has been partially characterized by mutual accusations between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Alongside other Turkey-backed elements, the SNA have understandably blamed the incident on the YPG/PKK, and by extension the SDF, and as discussed in the weekly analysis report, the attack is the fifth VBIED detonation within Manbij since the SNA seized control over the city.

Aftermath of VBIED attack on 3 February

For their part, the SDF has distanced itself from the attack and in a statement on 3 February the group strongly condemned the incident and offered to assist Damascus in the investigation. More significantly, the statement attributed the attack to “Turkish-backed groups” and said “car bombs, conflict, and acts of terrorism are part of a strategy aimed at instilling fear and suppressing protests over conditions in Manbij.” The statement also portrayed the attack as an effort to shift attention away from the criminal behavior and activities of the Turkish-backed groups that now control the city. Meanwhile, the Syrian presidency also condemned the attack and pledged to hold to account those responsible but without attributing any blame. Regardless of attribution and responsibility, the attack is set to complicate negotiations between the SDF and the Syrian government, and on 4 February multiple sources reported that the talks are now suspended as a result of the 3 February attack. Further details remain limited but will be provided in the coming days as developments unfold.

Iran maintains unclear position on new government
Addressing the situation in Syria, and the appointment of Ahmed al-Sharaa as the new President last week, the Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran will “back any government supported by the Syrian people.” Speaking during his weekly press conference in Tehran on 3 February, the spokesperson also reiterated the importance of an inclusive government that represents all groups and sectors of Syrian society, and expressed hopes that the political transition will contribute to security and stability.  Baghaei’s diplomatic but cautious remarks stood however in contrast to comments made separately by the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, who on the same day said the “enemies have achieved their objectives” in Syria. Speaking with a state-linked media channel, Salami added that the “situation will not remain this way.”

While Salami’s comments are most likely directed primarily at Israel and the US – which Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei previously blamed for the overthrowing of the government of Assad – the remarks underscore a level of hostility against the new government which has so far been reluctant to engage with Iran. That said, Iranian officials have been careful not to publicly criticize the interim government in too drastic terms and recent statements by Foreign Ministry officials suggest a remaining intent to re-engage with Damascus. Earlier in January, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appointed former ambassador Mohammad Reza Raouf Sheibani as the special envoy to Syria – in a move widely seen as a step towards reestablishing relations. Iranian officials have also stressed that reopening the embassy in Damascus will happen when “circumstances are right.”

President Sharaa says elections are not currently feasible
In a related development, President Ahmed al-Sharaa addressed several regional and domestic topics in an interview on 3 February. Speaking with a state-linked TV channel, al-Sharaa addressed the relationship with Iran and described the Iranian militia groups as a threat to both Syria and the wider region. The statement fell short of explicitly ruling out diplomatic relations with Iran but is certainly noteworthy in the context of the above-noted remarks by the Iranian foreign ministry and IRGC.

Regarding the political transition in Syria, the president outlined a vision of the country as a republic with a parliamentary and executive government. He noted that an interim parliament would be established but stressed that holding permanent elections is currently unfeasible due to the large number of displaced citizens, unregistered births and deaths, and areas outside state control. More importantly, al-Sharaa also announced the formation of a preparatory committee for a National Conference, which will hold extensive consultations with various groups before issuing a final statement paving the way for a constitutional declaration. Al-Sharaa estimated that the transition process would take four to five years, citing the need for significant legal and institutional reforms before national elections can be held.

As further discussed in the weekly analysis report, the remarks are consistent with previous statements made by al-Sharaa and other senior HTS officials regarding the timeline for the political transition – an issue that was not explicitly addressed during last week’s victory conference and which has since raised questions over the HTS’ commitment to the pledge to oversee an inclusive political transition.

Opening hours for Hamam border crossing
On 3 February, the General Authority for Sea and Land Ports issued a notice regarding passenger movement through the Hamam border crossing with Turkey, stating that the crossing would operate from 07:00 to 23:00. starting on 7 February.

DAMASCUS & THE SOUTHERN REGION (including Suwaida, Daraa & Quneitra)

IED attack without casualties in Mazzeh neighbourhood of Damascus
Noteworthy hostilities in Damascus city were limited over the review period. Most notably, on the evening of 3 February, an IED detonated near the French Park in the Mazzeh neighborhood of Damascus. No casualties were reported and further details were not initially provided, but the incident is initially assessed as linked to a local dispute rather than a political motive. The style and timing of the attack – a low-yield device detonated during late hour – are indicative of an intimidation-style incident. Further details will be provided as and when available.

Security operations targeting criminal activity
Other activity in the Damascus area comprised security operations targeting criminal activity and smuggling. On 3 February, the Public Security Services seized multiple military rifles and a quantity of drugs in the Serghaya area of Damascus, which were allegedly prepared for smuggling to Lebanon. Further information was limited but the operation plausibly targeted elements linked with the former regime.

On the morning of 4 February, the HTS Public Security Services also launched a security campaign in the Jabal al-Ward neighborhood of Hama town, in the Damascus countryside. The campaign did not produce any immediate results but most likely targeted criminal elements and factions linked to the former regime as part of routine law enforcement efforts.

Separately, on 3 February, ADSL and 4G internet services were disrupted in Damascus, Tartous, Deir Ez-Zour, As-Suwayda, and other areas in Syria. Service was restored in the evening. Media sources attributed the outage to a malfunction in the main gateway of the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority.

Several killed by remnant explosions in Daraa and Suwayda
The threat posed by explosive hazards manifested itself again over the review period, with several incidents noted in the southern Daraa province. On 3 February, separate sources reported three detonations in total, including in Daraa city and near the town of Naimah. Four children were severely injured as a result, but no fatalities were recorded based on initial reporting. The incidents do serve as a persistent reminder of the threat posed by explosive remnants both in urban and rural areas of the country, with client operations reminders to always exercise caution and to maintain adequate security arrangements at all times.

NORTH & EAST SYRIA (Including Hasaka, Deir Ez Zour, Aleppo & Raqqa provinces)

Turkish airstrikes target water facilities in eastern Aleppo province
The situation along the frontlines in eastern Aleppo province remained static over the review period, with no changes noted in the territorial control of terrain. Instead, relevant developments were dominated by Turkish airstrikes which continued at a high level of intensity on 3 February. Multiple sources documented airstrikes in the countryside south of Kobani, targeting the Sarrin airport, silos and Tishreen Dam area. SDF-linked sources also stated that Turkish aircraft targeted civilian convoys arriving at the dam area from other parts of North and East Syria. Additional Turkish airstrikes reportedly targeted areas near Najm Castle, Qara Qozak Bridge, al-Jaada School as well as the village of Dikan, with the outcomes not initially specified.

Airstrikes were also recorded against water infrastructure facilities in the region. This included a strike on the Shuyukh Fawqani water station, west of Kobani, that caused the facility to go out of service and cut off the water supply in the area. Commenting on the event, the Water Directorate in Kobani reported that Turkish warplanes targeted the city’s main central water station, rendering it inoperable. The directorate stated that the attack deprived approximately 200,000 people in Kobani and its surrounding areas of access to drinking water.

SDF-initiated operations were more subdued during the review period but affiliated media channels stated that drones targeted a military vehicle of Turkish-backed factions near Tishreen Dam, killing two SNA fighters and injuring seven others. The SDF also reiterated a warning that the dam may collapse unless urgent action is taken and called on the international community to intervene.

Family clashes and suspected IS activity reported in Deir Ez Zour
Hostile activity in Deir Ez Zour was characteristically linked to diverse threat conditions. On 3 February, local sources reported an armed clash between two families in the village of Namliyeh, northern Deir Ez-Zour province. No casualties were reported and no further tensions were reported during 4 February. In a separate incident, unknown gunmen opened fire on two civilians in the village of Hawi Dhiban, eastern Deir Ez-Zour province, wounding them as they attempted to steal livestock in the area. The perpetrator of the attack remains unclear but the area is associated with IS activity and such incidents are typically attributed to the insurgent group which continues to feed off civilian livestock in rural and exposed areas.

Coalition airdrop operation targeted IS-linked individual
In another noteworthy incident, multiple sources reported an airdrop operation by international coalition forces and the SDF in the town of Namliyeh, northern Deir Ez-Zour province. The operation targeted Abdul Awad Al-Asi, an individual involved in the oil sector accused of coordinating with and being affiliated with IS elements. The suspect was reportedly arrested, and weapons were seized from his possession. The operation has not been confirmed by CENTCOM or other US official sources, yet was corroborated by multiple sources.

CENTRAL REGION (Including Idlib, Hama, Latakia, Tartous, Hama & Homs)

HTS elements arrested dentist accused of ties with Russia
Noteworthy developments in the central region continue to include operations and incidents affecting individuals linked to the previous government. On 3 February, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that the HTS arrested dentist Fadi Alwan from his home in Rastan, in the northern Homs countryside, and detained him at one of their security headquarters. Local sources later indicated that Alwan had represented Russian interests in the city since 2018 when a political settlement was reached between Syrian opposition factions and the Assad regime, mediated by Moscow. Opposition sources have since accused Alwan of recruiting young men to protect Russian interests in oil facilities in eastern Homs and Deir Ez-Zour.

HTS also initiated a pursuit operation against Madhat Al-Dahik and Abdul Kafi Bakour, two individuals from Talbiseh, north of Homs, who were affiliated with the Russian operations room at Hmeimim Airport. Both had obtained Russian security credentials allowing free movement in regime-controlled areas.

Protests over detentions in Latakia and Tartous
Activity in the Latakia and Tartous provinces included demonstrations against the new government. On 3 and 4 February, assessed coordinated gatherings were recorded in Latakia city, Jableh, and Tartous cities to protest the alleged unlawful detentions of individuals by the new government in Damascus. The protesters demanded the release of individuals detained over their affiliations with the previous government and pledged to continue the demonstrations until their demands were met. All demonstrations unfolded peacefully, yet the protests serve as a reminder of persisting anti-government sentiments in these areas, with associated tensions to be monitored closely.