NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Nationwide incidents 

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

• Ahmed al-Sharaa addresses people of Syria in first speech as President
• Al-Sharaa speech displays commitment to inclusive political transition
• US precision strike targets Al-Qaeda affiliate in Idlib
• Trump says decision will be made on Syria troop presence
• Change in opening hours for Jdeidet Yabous border crossing
• Limited report of explosion and separate shooting in Damascus
• Peaceful demonstrations in Damascus
• Violence between familiar parties in As Suwayda and Daraa
• Numerous reports of fatal shootings in the northeast
• Fighting around Tishreen Dam includes air, artillery, and weaponized drone attacks
• media sources report sectarian-motivated violence in Homs

STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Ahmed al-Sharaa addresses people of Syria in first speech as President
In a first speech since being appointed President of Syria during the so-called victory conference (see Daily Report for 30 January), Ahmed al-Sharaa outlined a series of goals and objectives for his government during the interim phase. These included prosecuting criminals “who have been involved in Syrian blood and committed massacres and crimes against us, whether they hid inside the country or fled outside it” and achieving “civil peace”. The speech also stressed the need to build a strong economy and strong state institutions to provide job opportunities, improve living conditions and restore basic services.

Ahmed al-Sharaa during speech in Damascus on 30 January

Striking a conciliatory and pragmatic tone, al-Sharaa also emphasized that the government is committed to building “an inclusive transitional government representing Syria’s diversity through its men, women, and youth, tasked with building new Syrian institutions.”  The president also reiterated the need to build a “unified Syria” with a government capable of “imposing its sovereignty under one authority.” Arguably his most significant remark came at the end of the speech when al-Sharaa pledged to build “Syria’s new institutions until we reach a stage of free and fair elections.”

A translated version of the speech was provided via the official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) and is available here

Al-Sharaa speech displays commitment to inclusive political transition
As mentioned, the speech came a day after al-Sharaa’s appointment as president by the HTS in a conference held in Damascus where the interim government also abolished the 2012 constitution and the legislative assembly. The announcement was met with celebratory reactions within Syria, but also omitted specifying any timeline for the transition and it did not mention plans to hold elections. The unilateral appointment of al-Sharaa by a closed committee is also assessed to create concerns regarding the government’s commitment to democratic values and an inclusive political transition that consults other elements of the country. The speech on 30 January was, in this context, likely intended to alleviate these concerns and to shore up the HTS’, and al-Sharaa’s, legitimacy and credentials as a pragmatic leader. In the context of current discussions and plans for a gradual lifting of sanctions, the speech is also assessed as having been intended for an international audience as much as for the people of Syria.

That said, the wording of some remarks is set to raise further questions that will likely be addressed over the course of future engagements between the HTS and international stakeholders. Notably, al-Sharaa’s pledge to “build Syria’s institutions” prior to reaching a “state of free and fair elections” may suggest that the HTS will prioritize order and stability before the question of elections can be raised. The pledge to hold to account “criminals” involved in “Syrian blood and massacres” may also indicate a more vindictive policy and is somewhat disconcerting considering recent reports of revenge killings, and sectarian violence affecting HTS-controlled areas. Likewise, the pledge to create a “unified Syria” and impose “sovereignty under one authority”, clearly contradicts demands by some groups, notably Kurdish and Druze elements, of a decentralized country with strong local autonomy. These competing visions certainly set conditions for future tensions that are set to dominate political developments moving forward.

US precision strike targets Al-Qaeda affiliate in Idlib
As confirmed by US Central Command (CENTCOM), US forces conducted a precision strike in northwest Syria’s Idlib province that resulted in the death of Muhammad Salah al-Za’bir, a senior operative within Hurras al-Din, an Al-Qaeda linked group. A statement from CENTCOM added that the airstrike was part of CENTCOM’s ongoing mission, alongside regional partners, to disrupt and hinder terrorist efforts to plan, organize, and execute attacks against civilians and military personnel, including those from the US and its allies. Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of CENTCOM, stated, “CENTCOM will continue to hunt down and either kill or capture terrorists to protect our homeland from groups that plot to attack US and allied personnel.” Local reports later claimed that the airstrike occurred near the town of Batbu, south of Sarmada in Idlib.

As previously discussed (see daily report 30 January), the strike follows an announcement by Hurras al-Din to dissolve and cease operations in Syria in light of recent developments, and may as such have a limited impact on the group’s operations. The group’s influence and activities in Syria have visibly declined in recent years as a result of a successful leadership decapitation campaign waged by the international coalition, internal friction and pressure from more moderate Islamist groups, including the HTS, that have weakened more extreme elements. That said, the death of al-Za’bir may prompt calls and attempts of retaliation against US forces and Western targets more broadly, with associated dynamics and threat atmospherics important to monitor over the coming days and weeks.

Trump says decision will be made on Syria troop presence
On 30 January, US President Donald Trump said a decision regarding the future presence of US troops in Syria will be made in the near future. The president also denied reports indicating that he is planning to withdraw all US troops from the country and said “I don’t know who said that. But we’ll make a determination on that.” The remarks came during a brief engagement with members of the press on the matter and few additional details were provided. The president was however quoted saying “We’re not involved in Syria. Syria’s its own mess… They don’t need us involved.” Further details were not provided by the president and no date for the decision has been discussed.

The remarks follow reports, citing Israeli sources, earlier this week regarding alleged plans by the Trump administration to withdraw US forces from Syria as part of a major regional redeployment of forces. The same report, originally published by the Israeli public broadcasting channel Kan, said “senior White House officials conveyed a message to their Israeli counterparts indicating that President Trump intends to pull thousands of US troops from Syria.” In response, Israeli leaders reportedly expressed concerns over the possible implications of the redeployment, with separate reports suggesting efforts by Tel Aviv to discourage the move. So far, this remains speculative and the Trump administration has yet to make any formal announcements regarding troop levels in Syria or Iraq, with the reports this week plausibly attributed to deliberate leaks made to gauge public and allied reactions before any official announcement. 

Change in opening hours for Jdeidet Yabous border crossing
On 31 January, the General Authority for Land and Sea Ports released a statement regarding new opening hours for the Jdeidet Yabous border crossing between Lebanon and Syria. The statement said the crossing will be available daily from 06:00 in the morning until 00:00 at night, starting on Saturday, 1 February 2025.

DAMASCUS & THE SOUTHERN REGION (including Suwaida, Daraa & Quneitra)

Limited report of explosion and separate shooting in Damascus
Incidents in Damascus were generally linked to localized violence or grievances with security forces, with reporting from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights discussing an incident in which two individuals were killed and seven others wounded after unidentified gunmen targeted buses on the Damascus-Suwayda Highway. SOHR also reported that two young men were shot and killed while on guard duty in the town of Dimas in the Damascus countryside. Later into the evening, sources reported that an explosion was heard in the Midan neighborhood, reportedly stemming from the detonation of a sound bomb that was underneath the Midan Bridge for unknown reasons.

Social media sources also reported that armed factions in the Qatana area of Damascus have been assaulting residents under sectarian pretexts, threatening residents and pressuring them to leave. Personnel operating checkpoints in the area have reportedly threatened residents of the area and conducted humiliating searches of them – similar to claims made in other areas such as Homs and Hama.

Peaceful demonstrations in Damascus
Demonstrations in Damascus were peaceful over the reporting period and did not see any major security responses. According to social media sources, medical staff of the University Children’s Hospital in Damascus conducted a sit-in style demonstration and work stoppage in response to repeated assaults on healthcare workers by patient companions. The staff demanded intervention to ensure their safety and provide necessary protection to continue their work effectively. Such violence typically occurs when the patient or patient’s family places blame on hospital staff for the patient’s condition, sometimes escalating into assault and battery. Meanwhile, employees of the Syrian Telecommunications Company held a sit-in-style demonstration in Damascus to protest the arbitrary dismissal of workers who were family members of martyrs, a decision affecting multiple ministries and provinces.

Violence between familiar parties in As Suwayda and Daraa
South of Damascus, in As Suwayda, social media sources reported that clashes between armed groups and Bedouin tribes in the Rasas and Ara areas resulted in the death of one individual and injuries among six others. Sources appear conflicted as some urged calm amidst claims that security forces had demolished a mosque and four homes in Ara, suggesting caution against such claimed reports. Gunfire was also reported in the Rasas area as relatives of a suspect fired into the air while refusing to surrender their son for his alleged involvement in the shooting of a young man from another family during a dispute over land rights. Caution is advised as local tensions are likely elevated amidst the potential for further violence and unverified reporting.

Separately, in Daraa province, the SOHR reported the death of an individual from the Sanamayn area after succumbing to gunshot wounds sustained the day prior by unknown assailants. The victim was reportedly linked to a local group that retained association with the Military Security Branch, though it is not clear if this was the motive behind the incident.

NORTH & EAST SYRIA (Including Hasaka, Deir Ez Zour, Aleppo & Raqqa provinces)

Numerous reports of fatal shootings in the northeast
Numerous security incidents were recorded in the northeast throughout the reporting period, with sources likely describing a mix of localized incidents or violence involving various armed factions. It is important to preface that much of this reporting is limited and cannot be independently verified, likewise subject to local bias. According to SOHR, elements of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) opened fire during a dispute with a local resident in the Baghouz area after the individual was attempting to transport fuel across the Euphrates. Reports suggest that a child was killed during the exchange which prompted further violence that saw the destruction of an SDF vehicle and subsequent SDF raids in the area.

Meanwhile, social media sources reported that an unknown individual riding a motorcycle threw a hand grenade in front of the Zaghir al-Jazirah School in Deir ez Zour, though the motive behind the incident remains unclear. SOHR also reported that a young man was stabbed to death by unidentified assailants in the Namliyeh area, reportedly while the individual was herding sheep. Other limited security incidents in the northeast included reports of SDF gunfire west of Shaddadi, an SDF-linked shooting in the Shahil area that saw the death of a woman, a tribal dispute in the Abu al-Nitel village that saw one fatality, and the detonation of an explosive device inside of a garbage container in the Joura area of Deir ez Zour that resulted in no casualties.

Fighting around Tishreen Dam includes air, artillery, and weaponized drone attacks
Fighting around the Tishreen Dam remains intense as the SDF claimed multiple attacks against the Syrian National Army (SNA), including strikes on the Qara Qwzaq Hill and the Qazali area, coinciding with numerous videos circulated online that show the SDF’s use of weaponized drones throughout Manbij. Footage shows the targeting of multiple static positions used by the SNA, including buildings and stationary vehicles, though casualty figures have not been provided with regard to recent operations.

Supporting the SNA, Turkish forces conducted a range of strikes against SDF positions and capabilities, striking positions around the Tishreen Dam, Kobani, and other SDF positions. Operations included the use of both aircraft and artillery forces, with a notable UAV strike reportedly targeting SDF personnel moving armored vehicles captured from the former government. Casualty figures were limited despite reports of as many as 150 artillery impacts, with the SDF reporting that two civilians were killed and a woman injured in Kobani as a result of recent Turkish operations. Turkish forces also reportedly targeted grain silos in the Kobani area, a tactic intended to apply pressure to both the civilian populations and military logistics.

CENTRAL REGION (Including Idlib, Hama, Latakia, Tartous, Hama & Homs)

Social media sources report sectarian-motivated violence in Homs
In Homs, social media sources reported multiple violations by HTS-linked factions. While these reports cannot be independently verified, they follow a consistent trend of violence in Homs targeting minority sects and residents of rural areas. Sources reported the use of sound bombs – likely to intimidate, gunfire against civilian homes, and a violent home invasion in the al-Aridah village in which the homeowner was assaulted and his children were shot in the legs. The assailants reportedly chanted sectarian slogans while threatening the family.