NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Nationwide incidents 

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

• UN Envoy urges negotiations to avoid SDF-HTS conflict
• Foreign Minister Shaibani stresses investment opportunities at Davos Forum
• Local violence in Damascus
• Demonstration at Nassib Border Crossing Point in Daraa
• Turkish operations and gunmen target SDF in the northeast
• Multiple fatalities linked to detonation of explosive remnants
• Demonstrators in northeast Syria condemn Turkish actions
• Turkish attacks on Tishreen Dam – SDF recovers Turkish UAV and onboard footage
• Fighting remains intense at Syriatel Hill
• HTS personnel raid homes and villages in Homs and Hama
• Syrian Resistance Faction claims responsibility for fatal attack on HTS in Latakia

STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

UN Envoy urges negotiations to avoid SDF-HTS conflict
Speaking on 22 January, the UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen stressed the need for negotiations between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the interim government led by Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to avoid a conflict between the two. In a press conference in Damascus, the envoy further warned that a conflict between the two sides would have negative consequences, not only for Syria but also for neighboring countries, while emphasizing the importance of a “comprehensive political transition” and a national army that includes “all factions.” On the issue of international sanctions, Pedersen also called on countries that imposed sanctions on the former regime to “reconsider” them.

UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen

The remarks come amidst increasing tensions between the HTS-led government and the SDF over efforts to create a new Syrian army that will fall under a unified command structure below the Ministry of Defense. The HTS has consistently called for the integration of the SDF into this structure on an “individual basis” and not as an independent military bloc, however these efforts have so far failed amidst the SDF’s demand to be integrated as a separate military entity. Earlier this week, the Ministry of Defence held a meeting with more than 60 armed factions to discuss their integration and so far the process has proceeded without major obstacles, but with the exception of the SDF.

Meanwhile, the HTS has employed a combination of soft and hard power moves in its approach to the SDF. Earlier this week, Foreign Minister Assad Hassan Al-Shaibani released, for the first time, a statement in Kurdish on the social media platform X that said the Kurds add “beauty and brilliance to the diversity of the Syrian people”. The statement also deplored that the Kurdish minority had been “wrongly” treated by the former government. On the same day however, Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra warned that the transitional government is “ready to use force” if the negotiations with the SDF fail. The statement comes after reports of HTS deployments to the north and east

Foreign Minister Assad Hassan Al-Shaibani in Davos, 22 January

and suggests an ongoing effort to put military and political pressure on the SDF to integrate.

Foreign Minister Shaibani stresses investment opportunities at Davos Forum
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on 22 January, Foreign Minister al-Shaibani stressed the increasingly favorable investment conditions in Syria and also defended the actions of the new government. Shaibani emphasized in particular that the security situation in the country is “acceptable” and pointed to recent visits by several European and Western delegations as a testament to this. Speaking with former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, the foreign minister did not deny the existence of continuing security incidents and challenges but praised the work done by his government to promote stability and safety following the fall of the Assad-led government.

Regarding the economic situation, al-Shaibani predictably reiterated calls for the lifting of sanctions imposed on the former government and expressed optimism that the EU and Gulf countries would assist in this matter. The foreign minister also emphasized the need to upgrade the country’s infrastructure, emphasizing the government’s focus on energy, telecoms, roads and airports, education and health, and described the current conditions as an “investment opportunity” for the world.

DAMASCUS & THE SOUTHERN REGION (including Suwaida, Daraa & Quneitra)

Local violence in Damascus
Security incidents in Damascus were generally related to local issues and criminality. On the afternoon of 22 January, six armed individuals stormed a home in the Soumariyyeh area of Damascus City, identifying themselves as local security forces. The group subsequently assaulted the homeowner in front of his wife and children before stealing the family car. Hours later, sources reported a separate incident in which an unidentified individual threw a hand grenade under the Midan Bridge in Damascus, resulting in no reported casualties.

Demonstration at Nassib Border Crossing Point in Daraa
On 22 January, the Nassib border crossing with Jordan in Daraa province witnessed a strike by Syrian truck drivers protesting high taxes imposed by Jordan on Syrian trucks, while similar taxes are not imposed on foreign trucks from Jordan. Hundreds of truck owners gathered and demanded reciprocity in tax imposition by the Syrian side. The crossing also saw protests by citizens and drivers due to the failure to hold former crossing employees accountable for bribes and extortions during the former regime. The strike ended after Public Security intervened by firing into the air and arresting several protesters.

NORTH & EAST SYRIA (Including Hasaka, Deir Ez Zour, Aleppo & Raqqa provinces)

Turkish operations and gunmen target SDF in the northeast
Turkish military operations persisted in areas of Deir ez Zour, Hasaka, and Raqqa throughout the reporting period – including both aerial and ground operations. Turkish UAVs reportedly targeted an SDF checkpoint in the village of Laqta in Raqqa on the evening of 22 January, with no casualties reported. Meanwhile, Turkish Army and SNA personnel attacked Zarkan City and Bobi village with heavy weapons around the same time, likewise not resulting in any reported casualties.

Meanwhile, sources reported a number of attacks plausibly linked to IS, however, other armed factions cannot be ruled out. Unidentified gunmen reportedly opened fire at an oil tanker truck near the village of Makman on 22 January, resulting in no casualties as the truck was traveling along the Hasaka-Raqqa Road. A similar incident was recorded at an SDF checkpoint outside of Shaddadi district, resulting in the deaths of three individuals – including two SDF personnel. Later, on the morning of 23 January, social media sources reported that a number of clashes and explosions were heard in the Abu Hamam area of Deir ez Zour, though details remain limited with regard to the incident.

Multiple fatalities linked to detonation of explosive remnants
Two explosive remnant incidents were recorded in Deir ez Zour on 22 January, including an incident that resulted in the deaths of three and injuries among two others after a device detonated in the Kabijib area. The individuals were reportedly searching for truffles when the device detonated. Separately, two girls were reportedly killed after an explosive remnant detonated in the Hawija Sakr area of Deir ez Zour City.

Demonstrators in northeast Syria condemn Turkish actions
Large numbers of residents in various urban areas of northeast Syria staged demonstrations over the latest reporting period, condemning Turkish attacks against the SDF and civilian populations in the north and northeast. Hundreds of individuals were recorded in areas such as Ma’badah, Malikiyah, Tal Hamis, Tal Tamer, and Amuda City. No major incidents were reported during either event.

Turkish attacks on Tishreen Dam – SDF recovers Turkish UAV and onboard footage
Turkish UAVs again targeted a civilian gathering at the Tishreen Dam on 22 January, maintaining a trend of casualty-producing attacks against civilian gatherings at the site. The SDF reported that “recent” Turkish airstrikes on the Tishreen Dam have resulted in the deaths of at least 20 and injuries to more than 100 others. The SDF also released footage obtained from a Turkish UAV – likely small First Person View or FPV style – that shows Turkish military personnel operating the aircraft at a nearby installation. The SDF pointed out that the aircraft was recovered close to the Tishreen Dam, evidencing Turkey’s complicity in such attacks. The consistent attacks against civilian populations have received condemnations from various governments and organizations, including Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders).

Fighting remains intense at Syriatel Hill
Across the Euphrates, fighting remains intense in and around Syriatel Hill as SDF units attempt to defend the site from Turkish-enabled SNA fighters. Both sides recently confirmed casualties after SNA units attempted to advance on SDF positions, with SDF personnel experiencing intense artillery bombardments while SNA fighters were attacked with explosives-laden UAVs. Following the overt attack on Syriatel Hill, SNA units attempted more surreptitious advances, seeking close width and engaging SDF personnel with smaller elements. SDF units nevertheless detected these movements and employed various lethal tactics against SNA units, notably after a weaponized UAV detonated in close proximity to an SNA gathering wounding or killing as many as ten.

CENTRAL REGION (Including Idlib, Hama, Latakia, Tartous, Hama & Homs)

HTS personnel raid homes and villages in Homs and Hama
In Homs, social media outlets reported that HTS personnel entered the Khirbet al-Hamam area and were promptly followed by four vehicles which subsequently opened fire at vulnerable residents. The incident resulted in the deaths of two individuals and injuries among ten others.

Local sources also reported that HTS-linked personnel killed two civilians from the Shia sect and injured others in Dalbouz village during a search and arrest campaign, cutting off the internet and communications, and vandalizing graves in the village cemetery. HTS personnel also seized a mine manufacturing plant and a weapons warehouse in the western countryside of Homs. Various media reports stated that ten vehicles entered the Ghazilah Al-Gharbiya village, killing an old man and throwing him and two others near the village dam. They also slaughtered a young man named Mohammed Al-Sarem and threw him in Khirbet Hamam village, arrested six people, and physically assaulted several others.

HTS-linked forces continued their operations by entering several villages, including Mhenaya, Rabwa, Ram Jabal, Tareen, and Khirbet Tin Nur, using tanks and heavy weapons. Reports suggest that those involved vandalized property gathered locals under duress, and physically assaulted them, chanting sectarian slogans and insulting the Alawite sect. In Khirbet Tin Nur village, similar reports surfaced of HTS-linked forces demanding a tribute of 500 sheep and 1000 cows from residents. Similar operations and reports of alleged assaults have been circulating in recent days as part of assessed law-enforcement operations conducted by the HTS in response to recent acts of resistance in Homs and Hama provinces where pockets of resistance remain active.

In Hama province, on 22 January, unidentified armed individuals killed a former photographer for the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) in Hama City. Further details were not provided but the incident appears consistent with retribution-style attacks targeting individuals linked with the former regime. It is worth noting that SANA falls under the Ministry of Information and is the county’s leading state news channel, with former journalists seen as having promoted pro-Assad propaganda. Separately, after midnight on 23 January, social media sources reported clashes between the Public Security Services and bandits near Masyaf City, with no casualties reported.

Syrian Resistance Faction claims responsibility for fatal attack on HTS in Latakia
In Latakia province, after midnight on 22 January, social media sources reported that armed men attacked a checkpoint in the Sina’a area at the entrance of Jableh City. The attack resulted in the deaths of two public security members and injuries to three others. The Syria Resistance faction claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that after five days of monitoring and surveillance, their operatives were able to assassinate two individuals, Abu Sateef Al-Shaghri and Abu Hussein Al-Jundi, who were affiliated with HTS. The statement claimed the attack was carried out using a hand grenade, followed by small arms fire.