NATIONAL OVERVIEW
Nationwide incidents
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
- US issued sanctions waiver for several regional countries
- Syria halts import of goods from Iran, Russia and Israel
- Ali Kada appointed new Minister of Interior
- Counter-crime operations continue in Daraa province
- Explosions in Quneitrah attributed to controlled detonations
- Attribution for VBIED detonation south of Manbij unclear
- HTS troop movements reported towards northeastern Syria
- SDF conduct UAV strikes and operations in southern Manbij
- Clashes between near Mataraba-Qasr border crossing linked to smuggling
- Local hostilities reported in Latakia province
- Violence in Tartous linked to criminality and localized disputes
STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
US issued sanctions waiver for several regional countries
The outgoing Biden administration reportedly issued limited sanctions waivers for several countries in the region that provide assistance to the new Syrian government. According to media reports, citing anonymous US officials, the US State Department notified Congress of the waivers last week. The waivers pertain to restrictions previously imposed under the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 and are related to Syria’s designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. The restrictions effectively risked sanctions on any country providing direct assistance to the Syrian government, however the waivers will now allow exemptions for a list of countries that support the new government. The countries affected reportedly include Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Ukraine.
The waivers follow the lifting of several other US restrictions in December that allow certain bank transactions related to humanitarian assistance to be conducted without violating sanctions. Despite the waivers, the outgoing Biden administration has not lifted the designation of Syria as a State Sponsor of Terrorism nor HTS as a Foreign Terrorist Organizations. US officials have repeatedly stressed that the sanctions will remain in place until the new government shows real progress and its commitment to an inclusive political transition.
Ali Kada appointed new Minister of Interior
On 19 January, Ali Kada was appointed as the Minister of Interior in the new Syrian government following a series of consultations and meetings between various political parties. A statement by the HTS said the appointment forms part of the government’s efforts to enhance internal security and restore stability to the country under the current circumstances. Ali Kada, born in the village of Harbanoush in the northern Idlib countryside in 1973, later moved to the city of Idlib where he obtained a degree in military engineering in 1997 and a degree in electrical engineering, specializing in electronics, in 2003. Additionally, Ali has studied English at the University of Aleppo and was sent on an educational mission to China. Prior to this appointment, hen held several positions within the HTS-led government in Idlib, including Assistant Minister of Interior for Administrative Affairs and Public Relations. Muhammad Abdul Rahman, who previously held the position of Minister of Interior, has assumed the duties of Governor of Idlib.
New Syrian Interior Minister Ali Kada
Syria halts import of goods from Iran, Russia and Israel
According to local media reports, the Finance Ministry announced a ban on goods and imports originating from Iran, Russia and Israel as well as a mandate to confiscate any products found to have been manufactured in those countries. The new government also announced new directives that allow dollar transactions and a new set of custom duties with reductions of 50-60% aimed to bolster the economy that continues to be severely weakened by Western sanctions and years of mismanagement.
The banning of imports from the mentioned countries coincides with directives also prohibiting the entry of Iranian and Israeli citizens into Syria. So far, Russian citizens do not face any entry restrictions, but Russia is reportedly being prevented from removing military assets and equipment due to restrictions that prevent Russian ships from docking at Syrian ports. In response, Russia has reportedly halted wheat exports to Syria, with Russian officials citing “payment delays and uncertainty with regards to the new government” as the main reason for the suspension of exports. For Iran, the export restrictions constitute a blow to its assessed efforts to engage with the new government and forms an assessed setback following Iran’s expressed desire to reopen its embassy in Damascus.
DAMASCUS & THE SOUTHERN REGION (including Suwaida, Daraa & Quneitra)
Counter-crime operations continue in Daraa province
Hostilities in Damascus and the surrounding areas were limited overall, with no significant events noted during the reporting period. Several incidents were recorded in the Daraa province however where tensions linked to cross-border smuggling operations continue. Most notably, various local sources stated that preparations are ongoing for the launch of a military operation, led by the 8th Brigade, to target criminal groups accused of engaging in cross-border smuggling in coordination with Lebanese Hezbollah. The operation will reportedly focus on the Lajah area of the province, with no further details regarding its scope or start date provided.
Separately, a child sustained injuries from gunfire during a pursuit by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) members targeting armed individuals in the town of Musayfirah, Daraa province. The targeted individuals reportedly involved criminal elements and the operation forms part of a standing law-enforcement effort in the province.
Explosions in Quneitrah attributed to controlled detonations
On 20 January, multiple sources reported the sounds of explosions in the Quneitra province. This was attributed to clearance operations conducted by the Israeli Defence Forces in the Ein Zivan area in the occupied Golan Heights. As of writing, the explosive removal efforts have proceeded without incident however such operations tend to coincide with conspiratorial or false reports regarding alleged Israeli attacks, with clients advised to be aware of potential misinformation campaigns.
NORTH & EAST SYRIA (Including Hasaka, Deir Ez Zour, Aleppo & Raqqa provinces)
Attribution for VBIED detonation south of Manbij unclear
On 19 January, a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) detonated at Kabirja Junction, south of Manbij City in Aleppo province. Footage depicted a burning vehicle in the roadway surrounded by bystanders. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), two members of the Syrian National Army (SNA) were killed, and one was wounded. The Syrian Civil Defense reported injuries to three civilians. The site, a key logistical route under SNA control, serves as a resupply path toward the Tishreen Dam, an area of ongoing clashes between the SNA and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). No group has claimed responsibility, though the attack is suspected to involve the SDF or the PKK, given their strategic interest in disrupting these routes. However, other armed factions with access to the area could also be responsible as well and further clarification will be provided as available.
HTS troop movements reported towards northeastern Syria
According to multiple sources, several military convoys belonging to the HTS redeployed towards areas in northeastern Syria, reaching the countryside of Raqqa, Hasaka, and the eastern countryside of Aleppo on 19 January. Other reports stated that Turkish convoys loaded with military equipment arrived on the Turkish-Syrian border on the same day while the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army also deployed additional assets towards the frontlines with the SDF. The reinforcements included armored vehicles, engineering equipment, field artillery, and rocket launchers, deployed towards the Tishrin Dam axes as well as the banks of the Euphrates River in Deir Ez Zour province.
The movements coincide with the HTS-led government’s recent rejection of the SDF’s proposal to be integrated into the Syrian Ministry of Defence as a separate “military bloc.” To recall, Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Kasra rejected the proposal on 19 January and instead reiterated the HTS’ demand for the SDF to be disarmed and integrated on an individual basis into the new Syrian military structure. The reported troop movements thus appear as an attempt to put military pressure on the SDF as part of the ongoing negotiations. Separately, Turkish officials again warned of an upcoming military operation into SDF-controlled areas, with several military officials informing Turkish media outlets that a joint operation involving the Turkish and Syrian militaries is being prepared. The simultaneous deployments of HTS forces, SNA and Turkish military preparations certainly conveys a message of coordination between the three sides as part of its pressure campaign against the SDF.
SDF conduct UAV strikes and operations in southern Manbij
Meanwhile, local media channels reported that an SDF drone targeted military and armored vehicles of the Sultan Division, part of the Turkish-backed National Army, near the Tishreen Dam, east of Aleppo. Eight members of the Sultan Division were killed, and eight SDF fighters were injured. The SDF also conducted combing operations in southern Manbij, villages north of the dam, and the vicinity of Tell Syriatel, Tishreen Dam, and Qara Qozak Bridge.
CENTRAL REGION (Including Idlib, Hama, Latakia, Tartous, Hama & Homs)
Clashes between near Mataraba-Qasr border crossing linked to smuggling
On 19 January, clashes broke out at the Mataraba-Qasr crossing in Homs province’s southern countryside between Lebanese and Syrian smugglers. Armed individuals from Mataraba, Syria, fired rockets, artillery, and medium-range weapons at the Lebanese town of Qasr, causing significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. Concurrently, gunfire erupted at the al-Arid-Qasr crossing. The Lebanese army deployed in the area to address escalating tensions. Social media sources reported that former Syrian regime elements, in coordination with Lebanese Hezbollah affiliates, attacked civilians near the border, resulting in two deaths and one injury.
Local hostilities reported in Latakia province
Activity in Latakia province was linked to diverse threat conditions, generally linked to localized disputes and issues. On 19 January, the body of a young man was discovered in a cemetery in Damsarkho village, Latakia province, three days after he was reported missing. According to the SOHR, the victim worked in electrical repair yet the cause and motivation behind the abduction was not stated.
Separately, on the evening of 19 January, clashes occurred between Public Security Services units and criminal elements affiliated with the former regime in the Datour and Basnada areas of Latakia city. Although no casualties were reported, further details indicated that the clashes came after an armed gang had kidnapped two young men from Datour, intending to demand a ransom. Public Security Services intervened, arrested the gang, and secured the release of the captives. Elsewhere, two civilians were killed by a landmine explosion while in agricultural and forested areas near the village of Qarmil in the Jabal al-Akrad area of the province. The incident serves as an enduring reminder of the importance of exercising caution due to the high levels of contamination, especially in rural areas of the country.
Violence in Tartous linked to criminality and localized disputes
Hostile activity in the Tartous province was likewise linked to assessed local disputes and criminality. On 19 January, gunfire erupted near the municipality roundabout in Baniyas City, Tartous province, when a group of intoxicated individuals fired on a Public Security patrol. Authorities arrested the driver of their vehicle, while the others fled. Later in the evening, explosions and heavy gunfire were also reported in Baniyas. Social media sources stated that the incident was caused by a hand grenade thrown at the gate of the guards’ quarters in the Baniyas refinery housing complex. A curfew was subsequently announced in the city, effective from midnight to 6 a.m. on 20 January.
Separately, gunfire and explosions were reported near the Avtomachine warehouse between Beit Alian and Beit Kamouna in Tartous province. Three vehicles arrived at the warehouse, and the occupants opened fire, threw hand grenades, and assaulted workers and truck drivers. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces responded, clashed with the assailants, and arrested them. The motivation behind the attack was not specified but local sources indicated it may have been linked to a financial dispute.