NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Nationwide incidents 

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

• Interim foreign minister express intent to rejoin Arab League
• Violence in Damascus linked to retribution and intimidation
• Local unrest and violence in As Suwayda and Daraa
• Israeli forces search for remnant weapons in Quneitra
• Turkish air and artillery units strike SDF positions and dual-use infrastructure
• VBIED detonation in SNA-controlled Manbij City
• SDF claims tactical gains near Tishreen Dam
• Localized violence and retribution attacks in Homs
• Clash between smugglers includes use of mortars
• Residents of Hama claim HTS assaults and humiliates dozens of detainees

STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Interim foreign minister express intent to rejoin Arab League
On 17 January, the new Syrian foreign minister Asaad al-Shaibani met with a delegation led by the Assistant Secretary-General of the Arab League Hossam Zaki in Damascus. Speaking at a joint press conference, al-Shaibani reiterated Syria’s intent and wish to regain its seat in the Arab League and that he “hopes this will happen soon.” The foreign minister also called on members of the league to support the reconstruction effort in the country, emphasizing the need for investments in the fields of energy and infrastructure development. In the same press conference, al-Shaibani said the government is working to hold a “national conference” involving all components of the Syrian population as part of the political transition. For his part, the Assistance Secretary-General Zaki said the league is working with member states to reactivate Syria’s membership, with few additional details provided.

To recall, the Arab League suspended Syria’s membership in 2011 amidst the outbreak of the civil war and then voted to reinstate the country in 2023. This followed a normalization process involving several GCC states that enabled Syria’s return however the membership was then again suspended in light of the collapse of the government led by Bashar al-Assad. Readmitting Syria again to the league would constitute a significant symbolic success for the HTS-led government and form a significant sign of Damascus diplomatic re-engagement with other regional stakeholders. The issue must however be put up for a vote by the member states and this is expected to dominate the next Arab League summit which is set to be held in Baghdad during 2025.

DAMASCUS & THE SOUTHERN REGION (including Suwaida, Daraa & Quneitra)

Violence in Damascus linked to retribution and intimidation
Violence in Damascus included reports of shootings, kidnappings, and other security matters, resulting in numerous casualties. According to social media sources, armed men north of Damascus City in the Qarah area recently kidnapped a fifty-year-old man under the pretext of investigating him. The initial kidnapping reportedly took place on 16 January, however, the following day his body was discovered after being brutally dismembered. The incident is reportedly the third such kidnapping and murder against the same family in the area and may be related to previous tensions or retribution for perceived injustices.

Meanwhile, social media sources reported that a number of gunmen opened fire into the area at the French Hospital Intersection in Damascus’ Qassaa neighborhood. Local residents claim that the gunmen have been active in the area several nights in a row and are pressuring residents of the predominately Christian neighborhood to adopt Islamic requirements.

Meanwhile, the Saif al-Bahr Battalion, a splinter group previously aligned with HTS, claimed a recent attack against HTS personnel in the Damascus countryside. The group claimed that the attacks targeted two vehicles belonging to HTS, resulting in unspecified casualties among the occupants. The incident is unconfirmed but could reasonably prompt security operations in the more rural areas around Damascus as leaders are likely keen to solidify their legitimacy as the Syrian government.

Local unrest and violence in As Suwayda and Daraa
In As Suwayda City, dozens gathered in Karama Square to protest under the slogan of controlling weapons, reflecting growing public frustration over the unchecked proliferation of arms in the area. Amidst this discontent, gunfire at the Sadkop Fuel Depots near Ariqa resulted in the death of one individual. Adding to the region’s turbulence, Sheikh Al-Hijri, a prominent Druze leader, issued a statement denouncing the state’s failure to honor those from As Suwayda who had fought and died with the army during the former regime. He demanded that they be recognized as martyrs and called for compensation for their families, while also criticizing the dismissal of former regime employees from government departments.

In neighboring Daraa province, two children from Busra al-Harir were injured when a small mine exploded near a former military site in the eastern countryside. In the western countryside, a young man from Saisoun in the Yarmouk Basin area was wounded by gunfire from unidentified individuals.

Israeli forces search for remnant weapons in Quneitra
Israeli operations continued in Quneitra as forces launched a nighttime operation under the cover of darkness west of Khan Arnabeh. Israeli forces are reportedly searching for remnant weapons and explosives from the previous government, searching an area belonging to the former Qaws al-Nabaa Brigade. Israeli units withdrew after one hour, destroying sections of the site’s exterior walls in the process – likely to prevent its future use.

NORTH & EAST SYRIA (Including Hasaka, Deir Ez Zour, Aleppo & Raqqa provinces)

Turkish air and artillery units strike SDF positions and dual-use infrastructure
Turkish UAV and artillery operations persisted throughout the latest review period, including UAV strikes against an SDF site near Rafqa Farm in western Raqqa. Turkish artillery units struck SDF positions in the Ain Issa area, similar to strikes in recent reporting cycles. Notably, artillery strikes reportedly impacted a drinking water pump in the villages of Fatisa and Mushairfa, consistent with Turkey’s previous targeting of dual-use infrastructure.

Local factions also reportedly targeted an SDF headquarters in the town of Dhibah on 17 January, though not resulting in any reported casualties. Meanwhile, an explosive remnant detonated in Deir ez Zour’s Salihiyah area, injuring at least one child.

VBIED detonation in SNA-controlled Manbij City
Notable incidents in Aleppo province included that of a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack on Manbij City’s Rabita Street. Security forces in the area claimed that the attack did not result in any casualties, however, separate sources claim that as many as four individuals sustained injuries. The area is under the control of the SNA, leading to speculation of responsibility for the attack. Multiple armed factions can likely gain some access to the area to author various attacks, though most accounts appear to suggest PKK linkage.

SDF claims tactical gains near Tishreen Dam
Operations around the Tishreen Dam remained elevated as SDF units conducted a variety of ground engagements, UAV attacks, and rocket strikes against SNA units enabled by Turkish forces. The SDF claimed a successful ground assault against an SNA position near the Tishreen Dam, targeting personnel in proximity to Syriatel Hill. An SDF drone team reportedly targeted elements of the SNA – evidenced by video footage published online – while ground personnel were able to overrun an SNA position. While notable, these successes on the ground likely only serve limited tactical advantages and include the use of fireteam (~4 personnel) or squad-sized (~12 personnel) elements, supported by effective weaponized drone teams.

Turkish UAVs conducted strikes against SDF positions in the village of Imam on 17 January, though the SDF subsequently claimed the downing of a Turkish UAV in the Qanat area, southwest of Kobani. Turkish UAVs had been reportedly carrying out both surveillance and strike missions in the area prior to being engaged by unspecified air defenses under SDF control.

CENTRAL REGION (Including Idlib, Hama, Latakia, Tartous, Hama & Homs)

Localized violence and retribution attacks in Homs
In Homs, armed groups reportedly carried out robberies and looting in multiple villages, including Mas’udiyah, where livestock, vehicles, and other valuables were stolen, and Jubb al-Jarrah, where sectarian tensions were suspected to have motivated the theft of food supplies and firewood. In Umm al-Sarj, members of the Abu Khashaba checkpoint reportedly raided the village, stealing livestock and tractors, assaulting residents, and arresting several people. Meanwhile, violent clashes erupted in Addabousiyah after reports surfaced that wanted gang leader Malik Saqr was hiding in the area. The ensuing clashes resulted in the deaths of four individuals.

Separately, a street vendor previously abducted in the Abbasiya neighborhood of Homs City was found murdered and mutilated, coinciding with similar reports from nearby areas. Such incidents are generally assessed to be related to previous disagreements or in retribution for perceived injustices.

Clash between smugglers includes use of mortars
Early on 18 January, sources reported that a clash broke out between smugglers along the Syrian-Lebanese border close to the Hawik area of Homs. The incident, sparked by a disagreement of fuel supplies, escalated into the use of mortars, though resulting in no reported casualties. Such incidents are notable and underscore the wide variety of factions with access to weapons, including those indirect capabilities such as mortars and rockets.

Residents of Hama claim HTS assaults and humiliates dozens of detainees
In Hama, HTS units conducted a security operation in the Jabourin area, during which dozens were arrested, detainees were assaulted and humiliated, and one individual was killed. A single media source also reported that a woman was sexually assaulted during the operation. While many of those detained were later released, the operation left the community frustrated with the injustice.