NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Nationwide incidents 

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

• HTS leader and Qatari Prime Minister met in Damascus
• SDF Commander meets with KDP leader in Erbil
• Spain reopens embassy in Damascus
• Jordanian Airlines to resume flights to Damascus
• Checkpoint incident and arrest operation in Damascus city
• Protests linked to former regime issues in Damascus
• Body find and regime-linked mayor killed in Damascus countryside
• Israeli units advance further in western Daraa province
• IS activity and tribal clashes reported in Deir Ez Zour
• Multiple casualties caused by Turkish airstrikes near Tishreen Dam
• SNA-SDF hostilities continue in Aleppo, Raqqa and Hasaka provinces
• Several casualties caused by explosive remnants in Aleppo countryside
• Tensions involving Sham Liberation Army in Hama province
• Limited reports of assaults and intimidation-style operations by SLF in Homs

STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

HTS leader and Qatari Prime Minister met in Damascus
The leader of HTS, Ahmed al-Sharaa, met with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammed bin Abdulrahman in Damascus on 16 January. In a joint press conference, Abdulrahman pledged to support the HTS in its effort to rebuild the country, especially when it comes to technical and economic support regarding investments in electricity and other critical infrastructure. The Qatari prime minister also praised the “positive steps” taken by the new government and said that the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamin Bin Hamad al-Thani, will soon visit Syria. The two sides also discussed Israel’s incursion in the southwest and reiterated their condemnation of Israel’s policies in Syria, citing its use of Iran and Hamas as a “pretext” for bombing the country. More specifically, Abdulrahman reiterated Qatar’s calls for a UN peacekeeping force to be established along the buffer zone in order to “restore conditions that existed prior to Israel’s advance.”

HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and Qatari PM Abdulrahman

The meeting on 16 January is the second high-profile visit by Qatari officials since the fall of Assad’s government and follows the arrival of a senior Qatari delegation on 23 December. Like Turkey, Qatar is looking to position itself in the aftermath of the government collapse as one of the key foreign players in the country, having supported elements of the Syrian opposition since the start of the Syrian civil war.

Unlike other GCC states – including Saudi Arabia and the UAE – who readjusted their position from first opposing Assad to then re-establishing ties, Qatar has been consistent in its support for the opposition and is now well-positioned to capitalize on its relations with the HTS. This will most likely involve investments in infrastructure and construction efforts as well as humanitarian support that will consolidate political influence by cultivating social ties, and extend its soft power under the new government. Qatar is simultaneously expected to lobby the US and other western stakeholders to lift sanctions on the new government to facilitate economic investments.

Spain reopens embassy in Damascus
On 16 January, HTS leader Ahmed a-Sharaa also met with the Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares at the People’s Palace in Damascus. Earlier in the day, Albares inaugurated the reopening of the Spanish Embassy in Damascus, which was closed in 2011. Echoing statements by other EU member leaders in recent weeks, Albares expressed Syria’s support for Syria but emphasized the importance of an inclusive government and a political transition that respects the rights of minorities and women. The foreign minister particularly praised the steps taken by the new administration and in particular the peaceful nature of the transition so far. To recall, Spain is one of six EU countries that have explicitly called for the lifting of international sanctions on the new government, and the reopening of the embassy understandably stands out as another expression of support for the new government.

Jordanian Airlines to resume flights to Damascus
On 16 January, Jordan announced the resumption of flights to Syria after a 13-year hiatus, with Royal Jordanian Airlines set to begin flights to Damascus on 31 January 2025. The statement by the airline said it will operate an average of four flights per week, linking Damascus to destinations across Europe, America, the Middle East, and the Arabian Gulf.

SDF Commander meets with KDP leader in Erbil
General Mazlum Abdi, Commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), met with KDP leader and the former KRG President, Masoud Barzani, in Erbil on 16 January. The landmark meeting predictably focused on the situation in Syria and promoting “Kurdish unity”, with a statement published by Barzani’s office stressing ways to “adopt a unified position among Syrian Kurds”. The statement also emphasized the importance of reaching an “understanding and agreement with Syria’s new rulers”.

While few additional details were provided, the meeting is assessed as a significant effort by the KDP to promote reconciliation and likely to mediate to reduce tensions between rival Kurdish factions in northeastern Syria. The KDP has been historically aligned with the Kurdish National Council (KNC) – a coalition of groups that rival the SDF – and only days before the meeting, Barzani sent a representative to Syria to meet with members of the KNC.

This was not mentioned in the official statements however the reference to Kurdish “unity” is assessed as an implicit reference to ongoing mediation efforts by the KDP. The meeting also likely focused on present efforts by the HTS, backed by Turkey, to disarm and integrate the SDF into a new military structure in Syria – efforts that Abdi has repeatedly rejected. The KDP – which enjoys positive relations with Turkey – may similarly seek to position itself as a mediator between the SDF, the HTS, and Turkey with a view to finding an agreement to resolve these differences.

DAMASCUS & THE SOUTHERN REGION (including Suwaida, Daraa & Quneitra)

Checkpoint incident and arrest operation in Damascus city
Hostile activity in the capital city was relatively subdued over the reporting period, with no significant acts of violence noted. In one noteworthy incident, a group of armed men reportedly opened fire on an underage boy riding a motorcycle after he allegedly ignored their stop orders at a temporary checkpoint. The gunmen were reportedly not wearing military uniforms and did not appear to be affiliated with any security or government agency. Further details were not provided but the incident illustrates the risk associated with the existence of temporary and illicit checkpoints in the city. Separately, social media sources reported that HTS security forces arrested a cell affiliated with the former Syrian regime. The members of the cell were reportedly involved in kidnapping and thefts in Damascus city, yet few additional details were provided.

Protests linked to former regime issues in Damascus
Protests in the city included two gatherings linked to the activities of the former government. On 16 January, the families of missing individuals staged a protest outside the Khateeb security branch building in Damascus, demanding information about their missing relatives and justice for them. Later in the day, another demonstration took place at Tahrir Square, where participants protested against the alleged destruction of evidence linked to the actions and activities of the former regime. They also demanded the revelation of the fate of missing individuals. Both events unfolded without incident but illustrate the persistent consideration linked to spontaneous gatherings in the city.

Body find and regime-linked mayor killed in Damascus countryside
In the countryside, two noteworthy incidents were recorded over the review period – both linked to reprisal actions targeting individuals linked to the former government. On 16 January, local media reported that the bodies of two individuals, both executed with gunshots to the head, were found on the Maarba-Mount Qasioun Road outside Damascus city. According to local sources, a resident killed two former regime officers in an act of revenge for the arrest of his father and six brothers.

Separately, local sources reported that Military Operations Administration personnel shot and killed the former mayor of Hosh Arab, a man in his sixties, in the Qalamun area of the Damascus countryside. The former mayor, a head of the Baath Party branch in al-Tal, was accused of being an informant for the former regime and is believed to have been responsible for the arrests and deaths of many civilians in former regime prisons.

Israeli units advance further in western Daraa province
The situation in Daraa province remains heavily shaped by the continued presence of Israeli forces in the western border areas. On 16 January, local sources reported that Israeli Army units advanced into the Sasyun and Masrityah villages in the Hawdh Yarmuk region. This movement followed Israeli aircraft targeting a convoy belonging to the Military Operations in the area and that reportedly killed two members of the Public Security Directorate in the province on 15 January. Reports of additional Israeli advances have not been widely reported, but the situation remains volatile and the additional incursions – while assessed as relatively minor – may trigger counter-responses in the near term.

Other hostilities in the province were linked to localized dynamics and issues. On 16 January, local media reported that a young male, identified as Mohammed Ashraf Turkmani, was shot and killed by unidentified gunmen in Harak area, eastern Daraa. The incident is not assessed as politically motivated and likely linked to local disputes.

NORTH & EAST SYRIA (Including Hasaka, Deir Ez Zour, Aleppo & Raqqa provinces)

IS activity and tribal clashes reported in Deir Ez Zour
IS activity continues to be reported in eastern Deir Ez Zour province, where local cells persist in targeting SDF-linked vehicles and sites in rural areas. According to multiple sources, members of an IS sleeper cell detonated an IED targeting an SDF military vehicle in the Shaafa town in eastern Deir Ezzor. No casualties were reported but in response, the SDF conducted a security operation and reportedly shot and wounded a suspect. The incident is the latest in a string of IS-linked attacks this week in the province and while the majority of these incidents are minor, they are set to fuel concerns over an IS resurgence as the group intends to capitalize on present conditions in the country.

Separately, social media sources reported armed clashes between two tribes in Haw’ij Bumas’a town, western Deir Ezzor province. Details remain limited but the clashes were reportedly linked to a dispute over local smuggling routes, with no casualties discussed.

Multiple casualties caused by Turkish airstrikes near Tishreen Dam
According to sources affiliated with the SDF and local media reports, Turkish airstrikes were conducted for a second day in the vicinity of Tishreen Dam on 16 January. Most notably, the airstrikes reportedly affected a group of civilians who gathered near the dam to express support for the SDF and to denounce Turkey’s actions, with several injured as a result. According to local sources, at least five airstrikes impacted near the dam on 16 January while mainstream media outlets claimed at least one of the operations targeted a civilian convoy. The SDF claimed for their part that five civilians were killed as a result and condemned Turkey for violating international laws by targeting civilians. So far, Turkish officials have not commented on the incident but officials have repeatedly accused the SDF of exaggerating its claims regarding Turkish operations.

SNA-SDF hostilities continue in Aleppo, Raqqa and Hasaka provinces
Meanwhile, tit-for-tat attacks between the SNA and SDF continued across the North and East, with operations recorded near the frontlines in Aleppo, Raqqa and Hasakah provinces on 16 January. On the evening of 15 January, SDF Media reported that SDF forces destroyed three vehicles belonging to pro-Turkey militants during night attacks in the Manbaj countryside, southern Aleppo. The next day, the same sources claimed SDF elements engaged and shot down three Kamikaze drones launched by National Syrian Army units in Sakiru village, eastern Ain Essa, Raqqa province. No casualties were reported. Also in Raqqa, local sources stated that Turkish aircraft carried out two airstrikes in Sakiru village and Jerniyah area. No casualties were initially discussed and few additional details were provided.

Later in the evening, additional operations were recorded in Aleppo and Hasaka provinces. Social media sources reported that SDF units launched rockets from launch pads, targeting the Sakawiyah village in southern Aleppo province near Manbaj. The assessed targets included SNA positions in the vicinity of the villages, with no casualties reported initially. Around the same time, local media reported that Turkish aircraft targeted SDF positions in the Milibiyah area of southern Hasakah province, allegedly hitting an SDF UAV manufacturing site.

Several casualties caused by explosive remnants in Aleppo countryside
The threat of explosive remnants forms a standing consideration across the country, with additional incidents on 16 January serving as a reminder of the present risks when transiting rural areas. On 16 January, local media and the Syrian Civil Defense reported that a mine exploded in Tal Touaihine village, near Khanasir city in Aleppo province, wounding three children. Also in Aleppo, local media reported that a farmer was killed by a mine explosion in the Harbal village, Mari’ city. Elswhere, social media sources reported that an underage boy was killed by a mine explosion from war remnants in Abaja village, Manbaj countryside.

CENTRAL REGION (Including Idlib, Hama, Latakia, Tartous, Hama & Homs)

Tensions involving Sham Liberation Army in Hama province
In Hama province, two separate incidents involving members of the Sham Liberation Front (SLF) – a prominent armed group that played a key role during the civil war and is now affiliated with the HTS – were reported. On 16 January, social media sources reported that the Bani Khalid tribe had mobilized against SLF gunmen in Majdal village, Hama province, after one of its members, Muhanad Khalid, was killed by the group. Tensions escalated when two citizens were kidnapped, one of whom, Luran Mohammad al-Mohammed, was later found dead near the Tibat al-Imam Bridge. Tensions linked to the incident are expected to remain elevated over the coming days.

Separately, local sources reported that a convoy of SLF  gunmen entered Qanya al-Asi village in Hama province and began shooting randomly at homes. Some sources further stated  that the gunmen also detained several young men in the village and tortured them in an act of intimidation. The cause of this remains unclear, however this is assessed to form part of an effort by the SLF to assert control in the area following recent incidents involving acts of resistance from local elements.

Limited reports of assaults and intimidation-style operations by SLF in Homs
The above-described events followed similar incidents in the Homs province the day before where members of the SLF reportedly assaulted two Christian males after stopping them while they were on a bus in the Homs countryside. The gunmen initially asked the men about their religious affiliation, and upon learning they were Christian, forced them to recite the Islamic Shahada before removing them from the bus and assaulting them

On the same day, separate and unverified sources also reported that the SLF and HTS conducted a search operation in Jbourun village, Homs countryside. Some sources stated that the gunmen gathered the men of the village and assaulted them, while at least one person was executed. The circumstances remain unclear and it should be noted that these incidents remain unverified as of writing. If confirmed, such acts would understandably undermine current engagement efforts with the HTS and likely fuel concerns over the group’s ability to control more extremist elements within its ranks. Further details and information regarding these events will be provided as available.