NATIONAL OVERVIEW

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Nationwide incidents 

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

• EU leaders to discuss Syria sanctions in late January
• Saif al-Bahr Brigade announced separation from HTS
• IS Attack on Zeinab shrine foiled near Damascus
• Reprisal attacks against former regime allies reported in Damascus
• Several clashes between HTS and armed factions reported
• IS-linked attacks target SDF and civilians in Deir Ez Zour
• Turkish UAV strikes reported in Hasaka province
• Clashes between SNA and SDF intensify in Manbij countryside
• Five HTS members killed in ambush near Lebanese border
• Several injuries caused by UXOs in Idlib province

STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

EU leaders to discuss Syria sanctions in late January
On 12 January, Kaja Kallas, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, said the bloc’s foreign ministers will meet in late January to discuss the lifting of sanctions against the new Syrian government. Speaking during a meeting in Riyadh, attended by senior officials from the West and regional stakeholders, Kallas said the possibility of sanctions relief depends on the actions of the government led by Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), including its commitment to an inclusive political transition.

The meeting is scheduled to take place on 27 January in Brussels where the issue of sanctions relief will be revisited. In a post on the social media platform X, Kallas further called for “tangible progress in a political transition that reflects Syria in all its diversity” and also uploaded a picture of herself meeting Syria’s foreign minister Assad al-Shibani who also attended the meeting in Riyadh. Several other regional countries, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, reiterated their previous calls for sanctions on Syria to be lifted, citing humanitarian conditions and echoing concerns expressed by the new leadership in Damascus that maintaining sanctions will be devastating for the economy and its people.

Saif al-Bahr Brigade announced separation from HTS
On 10 January, a group calling itself “Saif al-Bahr” issued a statement announcing its defection from the HTS (referred to as “al-Jolani’s forces”). The group declared the start of a conflict against al-Jolani’s forces, accusing them of supporting the establishment of a national army and a secular government. The statement read:

“In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful: Praise be to Allah, and may peace and blessings be upon the Messenger of Allah. “And if they incline to peace, then incline to it [also] and rely upon Allah. Indeed, it is He who is the Hearing, the Knowing.”

We announce our defection from the so-called “Syrian National Army” under the leadership of Al-Jolani due to their adoption of secular ideologies. This army no longer adheres to Islamic principles, and we will oppose its corrupt goals.

We will not allow ourselves to remain silent in the face of their actions. They seek to impose their secular agenda under false pretenses. We affirm our steadfastness in defending true Islamic principles and standing against those who betray them. We declare that from this moment onward, we are independent of the so-called “National Army.” We will form our own path to confront oppression and injustice.”

Cham Wings announce resumption of flights to Damascus
On 9 January, Cham Wings Airlines announced the resumption of daily flights between Damascus and Kuwait starting 10 January. Osama Satea, Director of Development and Public Relations, urged travelers to contact the airline for more information.

DAMASCUS & THE SOUTHERN REGION

IS Attack on Zeinab shrine foiled near Damascus
Violence in the provincial areas of Damascus was linked to diverse threat conditions. Most notably, on 11 January, the General Intelligence Service and the Public Security Department in the Damascus countryside announced the prevention of an attempted attack by IS on the Sayyida Zeinab shrine near Damascus. The security operation led to the arrest of several individuals found with foreign documents, weapons, and explosives. Few details of the attack plot were provided but the statement noted that the plan involved the use of explosive devices. It is worth noting that the shrine has been targeted in the past, most recently in 2023 when a motorcycle-borne IED detonated outside, killing six people and injuring dozens of others. Beyond illustrating the persistent threat of IS attacks in the capital, the foiling of the plot serves to shore up the credentials of the new government, and in particular its commitment to protecting Shia shrines and other religious minority sites in the country.

Reprisal attacks against former regime allies reported in Damascus
Noteworthy developments in Damascus in recent days included attacks and incidents affecting individuals and local leaders affiliated with the government of Bashar al-Assad. Most notably, on 10 January, gunmen affiliated with HTS kidnapped and subsequently executed Mazen Kanina, the mayor of Dummar district. According to local reliable sources, Kanina was accused by the HTS of facilitating arrests of opposition members during Assad’s rule. Separately, on 12 January, the body of Sheikh Omar Houri, a Sunni religious leader loyal to the Assad regime, was found in the Jobar neighborhood of Damascus, nine days after his disappearance. Local media channels affiliated with the new government similarly accuse Houri of having facilitated the arrest of opposition members during the former regime, with his death assessed as an act of retaliation. The extent to which these incidents are sanctioned by the HTS remains unclear however, as they may plausibly be conducted by individuals acting outside the chain of command.

Several clashes between HTS and armed factions reported
Other hostilities included clashes between the HTS and rival factions in the countryside between 9 and 12 January. On 9 January, in the town of Talfita, Qalamoun, Damascus countryside, gunmen from the HTS-linked Yousef family attacked members of the Shalhoum family, killing one individual and injuring two others. The attack, involving heavy and light weapons as well as RPGs, was reportedly due to disputes stemming from accusations of regime support and settlement with HTS. HTS forces intervened, arrested several individuals involved, and brought the situation under control.

Three days later, additional and likely related clashes were reported in the same town, likewise involving members of the Al-Yousef family, affiliated with HTS, and a man accused of supporting the former regime. Al-Yousef members raided the accused man’s home, assaulting his wife and shooting his son in an attempt to force him to surrender. The accused man resisted, resulting in a firefight that led to his death and the death of an Al-Yousef family member. Al-Yousef members later targeted the house with tank shells and set fire to homes belonging to the opposing party.

After midnight on 10 January, additional clashes erupted between HTS Public Security and unidentified gunmen in the Kiswah area of the Damascus countryside. The gunmen reportedly attempted to infiltrate military housing in the area. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the clashes resulted in the death of one Public Security member and injuries to several others. Explosions were also reported in the area during the confrontation.

Protest by union workers in Sweida City
Elsewhere in the southern region of Syria, workers staged a sit-in in front of the Workers’ Union headquarters in Sweida City to demand job security and improved living conditions. The participants opposed dismissals without judicial decisions and called for better incentives, compensation, and inclusion of retirees in upcoming salary increases.

NORTH & EAST SYRIA

IS-linked attacks target SDF and civilians in Deir Ez Zour
IS activity levels in eastern Syria remain elevated, with additional attacks attributed to the group reported in the Deir Ez Zour province between 11 and 12 January. On 11 January, IS militants armed with firearms attacked an SDF site in Harijiya village, northern Deir Ez Zour province. Clashes were reported as SDF elements responded to the initial attack but no casualties were disclosed. On the same day, a local source reported that an IED detonated on the main road between Bajib and Sukhnah in the province as a civilian Toyota car passed by. The blast killed three civilians in the car. The source suggested the intended target was likely the Free Syrian Army, which frequently patrols the road, and while no group has claimed responsibility so far, IS involvement is strongly suspected.

The next day, IS militants reportedly targeted an SDF vehicle in Dhiban town, eastern Deir Ezzor province. The attack, involving firearms, resulted in injuries to several SDF members and a counter-operation, likely supported by coalition forces, can be expected in the area over the coming days.

Turkish UAV strikes reported in Hasaka province
Multiple Turkish precision strikes conducted with UAVs were recorded in the Hasaka province in recent days – targeting SDF positions and sites, including civilians affiliated with DAANES. Most notably, on 10 January, a Turkish UAV targeted a car in Khana Sari village, Derek district, Hasakah province, killing two civilians, including a woman who was an administrator in the Star Conference organization, and her driver. A nearby citizen was also injured according to local sources. On the same day, another UAV strike targeted the Kujarat area, Mount Qara Jogh, Taqal Baqal, and Shark villages in Derek district, Hasakah province. No casualties were reported. Two days later, one civilian likely affiliated with DAANES was killed when another strike impacted a site in Jabal Abdul Aziz, northwestern Hasakah City. Two others were reportedly injured as a result.

Clashes between SNA and SDF intensify in Manbij countryside
Between 6 and 12 January, violent clashes and artillery shelling, supported by Turkish UAVs and warplanes, intensified in the Manbij countryside, eastern Aleppo, particularly along the Tishrin Dam and Qara Qozagh Bridge axes where Turkish-backed SNA and the SDF continue to struggle for control over adjacent areas. According to local sources, Turkish warplanes conducted numerous airstrikes, especially near the Tishrin Dam and Sarrin town. The heaviest fighting occurred at Syriatel Hill and in Qashla village near the Tishrin Dam. Limited and unverified reports indicated that as many as 104 pro-Turkish faction members and seven SDF members were killed over the time period, with dozens more injured on both sides. The SDF used one-way UAVs to destroy multiple military vehicles, including tanks and personnel carriers. Three civilians were killed in the conflict zone due to Turkish airstrikes. Despite the intensity of the clashes, no changes in territorial control were reported yet additionally intense clashes are expected to continue in the area over the coming days.

Meanwhile, Turkish warplanes carried out three airstrikes on locations around Qarqozak Bridge southern Kobani City, including Seifa Hill and Bir Hasso village, accompanied by artillery shelling. Two children were injured in Bir Hasso village as a result of the strikes that took place on 11 January. The operations were preceded by similar operations the previous day near Sarrin silos and its surrounding areas in southern Kobani City. No casualties were documented.

VBIED intercepted near Aleppo City
On 10 January, the Public Security Department, in coordination with the Intelligence Service, announced the detection and dismantling of a VBIED reportedly coming from SDF areas toward Aleppo city. The SDF denounced the statement, offering to assist the Damascus government in investigating the source of the vehicle. The SDF suggested that Turkish-affiliated factions in the region, which separate SDF and Aleppo-controlled areas, might be attempting to destabilize the situation and implicitly accused the SNA of conducting the attempted attack. The more plausible involvement of IS or other Islamic extremist factions cannot be discounted however, although no group has claimed responsibility for the attempt so far.

SDF conducted infiltration attempt in Ain Issa while CF neutralized IS member
Notable activity in the Raqqah province involved an SDF operation on 11 January where units targeted members of Turkish-backed factions in the Troazia area near Ain Issa district. The operation – described as a covert infiltration – killed three faction members, injured seven, and destroyed several military vehicles and weapons.

Separately, International Coalition Forces conducted a UAV strike on the same day and killed Mohammed Al-Jadou, a prominent IS member, in the Rusafa desert in Raqqa province. The targete was reportedly driving when the strike occurred, resulting in his immediate death.

CENTRAL REGION

Five HTS members killed in ambush near Lebanese border
The most noteworthy incident in the central region occurred in the Homs province where, on 10 January, a group named the Syrian Resistance announced it had ambushed HTS members in western al-Qusayr near the Lebanese-Syrian border. The ambush reportedly killed five HTS members, including a foreign Uyghur leader. The group declared its intent to continue ambushes and attacks against HTS, accusing the faction and its Turkish affiliations of committing sectarian crimes against Syrians.

Separately, on 12 January, the bodies of five people, including four brothers from the Shiite village of Mazra’h, were discovered in the orchards of Baba Amr in Homs province. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the victims, who worked in construction, were not affiliated with any military group.

Several injuries caused by UXOs in Idlib province
In Idlib provinces, several incidents were reported that involved explosive remnants. On 11 January, a young man was injured when a UXO detonated in Maasran town in Maarat al-Numan district, southern Idlib province. The next day, 12 January, a civilian was killed when an artillery shell detonated in the Faqe’ village, southern Idlib province. Both incidents illustrate the high threat posed by remnant explosives in Idlib and in other areas of the country that remain highly contaminated, and the importance of exercising high levels of caution, as well as maintaining adequate security arrangements, when transiting the country.