Executive Summary
President Joe Biden is set to embark on his first regional visit since taking office, with stops in Israel and Saudi Arabia scheduled between 13 and 16 July. The president will also attend a regional summit organized by the Gulf Cooperation Council and attended by various stakeholders to discuss a range of regional issues.
The visit coincides with increased diplomatic activity surrounding efforts to restore the Iran nuclear deal which, alongside efforts to promote greater regional cooperation against Iran, is expected to dominate meetings with Israeli counterparts. Meanwhile, the visit to Saudi Arabia is seen as an effort to restore the strategic partnership visibly affected by human rights disagreements and energy policies.
President Biden to visit Israeli and Saudi Arabia
As widely reported, US President Joe Biden will visit the region between 13 and 16 July, with scheduled stops in Israel and Saudi Arabia already announced by the White House. Unannounced visits to other countries, including Iraq, are not expected but cannot be excluded as seen in connection with previous presidential visits to the region. The president will reportedly be received by senior Israel officials at Ben-Guiron Airport on 13 July and will then hold meetings with senior security officials at a military base at Palmachim, off the west coast of Israel, on the same day. Biden is also scheduled to visit the West Bank and hold meetings with President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas and other Palestinian leaders to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In Saudi Arabia, Biden will meet with King Salman bin Abdulaziz, and “members of his leadership team” which includes Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The President said previously he would not meet with the crown prince in person but a White House spokesperson indicated last week that the two will most likely meet as part of the president’s scheduled meeting with King Salman. Biden is also scheduled to attend a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Saudi Arabia, which will be attended by leaders from various regional countries, including Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi, King of Jordan Abdullah II, and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.
The visit is the president’s first tour to the Middle East since taking office in January 2021 and is broadly framed as an effort to enhance the US’ commitment to regional partners. As widely discussed, the Biden administration has adopted a more conditional approach towards both Israel and Saudi Arabia in comparison to the Trump administration. More specifically, the visit is expected to address a number of pressing issues emerging in the wake of the war in Ukraine and wider regional tensions with Iran. A focal point of reporting leading up to the visit involves assessed US-led efforts to promote greater security cooperation between Israel and Arab stakeholders in the region, with various reports discussing efforts to establish a regional “security alliance” involving Israel and several Arab states. Further discussion on these efforts is provided in a separate report but a near-term increase in Iran-linked tensions can be expected as a result.
Israel and the JCPOA
The other main issue expected to dominate the meetings – especially with Israeli counterparts – pertains to negotiations to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). To recall, in late June, US and Iranian officials resumed previously stalled discussions regarding the agreement, with an initial round held under EU mediation in Doha. The initial round failed (as predicted) to produce any significant breakthrough, however, the meetings were followed by an uptick in diplomatic activities and both sides indicated intent to continue the dialogue.
Shortly after the visit, the Qatari Foreign Minister visited Tehran and this week Iran’s lead negotiator visited Muscat to hold talks with Omani officials in a reported attempt to further the negotiations. Meanwhile, the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) announced on 9 July that newly installed advanced IR-6 centrifuges are now being used at the Fordow nuclear facility. A spokesperson for the agency further confirmed that the centrifuges were used to enrich uranium up to 20% – a small technical step from the 90% required for weapons-grade material.
The statement confirmed earlier unverified reports regarding the progress at Fordow, yet was likely timed ahead of the President’s visit to increase the sense of urgency surrounding the nuclear program. Israel remains a long-standing opponent to revitalizing the JCPOA, and officials will likely use the visit to reiterate their opposition to any sanctions relief and discuss ways to contain Iran should the nuclear program continue to accelerate.
For his part, Biden will likely seek to obtain assurances that Israel will not sabotage the negotiations should discussions in the coming weeks show signs of progress. Like former President Obama, the Biden administration may be ready to offer Israel incentives in the form of additional defense funding or diplomatic initiatives in exchange for Tel Aviv’s cooperation. According to various reports, Israeli officials will reportedly ask for additional US funding to support the construction of a laser-based missile interceptions capability that is being developed to neutralize increased precision rockets used by Hezbollah – a request that may plausibly be granted in exchange for Israeli cooperation on the JCPOA.
That said, any long-term agreements made between the two governments on the issue will necessarily be fragile given the current political instability in Israel (where new elections are slated for this autumn) and the uncertainty surrounding President Biden’s bid for a second term in office. The return of Benjamin Netanyahu and former President Donald Trump as Prime Minister and President in the coming years is not impossible, and would most likely undo whatever arrangements may be agreed upon between the current governments.
Expectations for US-Saudi reset low
Meanwhile, the visit to Saudi Arabia is largely seen as an effort to somewhat restore the strategic partnership which has been affected by Biden’s adoption of a more restrained approach to Riyadh. While both sides deny any breakdown, relations were visibly affected by Biden’s criticism of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record; the decision to publish a US intelligence report alleging Crown Prince bin Salman ordered the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi; and the withdrawal of support for the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen.
More recently, Saudi Arabia’s continued collaboration with Russia and reluctance to increase oil production to alleviate rising energy prices is widely seen as having propelled a change in the administration’s approach. The visit is accordingly expected to focus on ways to persuade Riyadh to abandon its oil alliance with Moscow and, more broadly, to ‘reset’ relations, however expectations for any significant progress remain low. Saudi officials, cited anonymously by international media, said this week the government is unlikely to change its position on Russia. Biden’s apparent reluctance to hold one on one meetings with the crown prince is also negatively affecting the prospects for any significant changes in Saudi Arabia’s posture.
Like Israel, the administration may offer various incentives to entice Saudi cooperation. According to reports circulating this week, the administration is reportedly considering lifting a ban on the sale of offensive arms that was imposed as part of a wider withdrawal of US support for the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen. Official rhetoric is limited, but according to reports citing unnamed US and Saudi officials, the ban is currently under review and may plausibly be lifted in exchange for Saudi cooperation on oil prices and efforts to isolate Russia. Any such agreements will understandably not be publicly announced, but the timing of the report is certainly noteworthy ahead of the visit.