Executive Summary

UAV and rocket incidents spark political reactions

Major Security Incident in Khabat, West of Erbil City

Elevated Turkish UAV surveillance ahead of PKK disarmament ceremony

Security forces conduct broad counter-IS operations

Widespread Protests Escalate Over Water Crisis, Public Services, and Worker Grievances

Tribal Violence, Criminal Activity, and Personal Disputes Persist

Demonstrations and Violence Around Religious Commemorations

Risk Levels, Risk Escalation Indicators & Planned Events

UAV and rocket incidents spark political reactions
The recent wave of UAV and rocket attacks across northern Iraq and the Kurdistan Region (KR-I) has heightened tensions between Erbil and Baghdad, exposing deepening concerns over internal security coordination and suspected rogue operations by Iran-aligned factions. A particularly sensitive and unverified report, allegedly submitted on 5 July by Major General Hassan al-Silawi to the Prime Minister via the Chief of Staff, claimed that Iranian-manufactured drone debris was recovered at multiple impact sites, including in Erbil, Kirkuk, Baiji, and around Iraqi radar installations. While the report remains unconfirmed, it has intensified suspicions within federal intelligence circles regarding possible unauthorized activity by elements of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), operating outside the chain of command.

On 4 July, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) issued a forceful response to claims from Iranian media and unnamed Iraqi sources that an Israeli base had been struck in Erbil. The KRG’s Ministry of Interior dismissed the allegations as propaganda, instead attributing the incident to a drone crash outside the city, confirmed by closed sources to have been intercepted by air defenses at Erbil Airbase. The ministry accused PMF-affiliated groups of orchestrating the UAV activity to destabilize the region and demanded federal accountability. This in turn prompted a strong rebuttal from Baghdad, with Commander-in-Chief Spokesperson Major General Sabah al-Nu’man condemning the accusations as baseless and inflammatory. He called for evidence to support the claims and warned that public blame directed at national security entities risked undermining institutional cohesion and benefiting foreign adversaries.

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