NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Nationwide incidents 

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

• Syrian government terminates port agreement with Russia
• Saudi Arabia urges lifting of sanctions during Davos summit
• KNC and KDP leader Barzani held another meeting in Erbil
• Grenade attack reported near bridge in Damascus
• Israeli advances reported in Quneitra
• VBIED detonation near military HQ in Manbij City
• SNA operations in eastern Aleppo continue
• SDF enforced curfew on areas threatened by tribal factions
• IS attack targets SDF patrol in Hasaka
• HTS security operations conducted in Homs and Hama provinces
• Clashes reported during security operations in western Homs
• Syrian Resistance claimed responsibility for attack in Jableh, Latakia
• UN contractor “arrested” at Hotel in Homs province

STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Syrian government terminates port agreement with Russia
On 22 January, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that the Syrian government terminated an agreement with a Russian company to manage the Port of Tartous – home to a Russian naval base and a key logistics hub for the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean. The Heads of Customs in the province said the 49-year deal, signed by the Assad-led government in 2019 with Stroytransgaz, was no longer valid and that “all revenue from the port’s operations will now serve the Syrian state.” Beyond managing the port and ensuring that Russia received 65% of the profit, the agreement included a plan to invest more than $500 million USD in modernizing the port.

The implications of the termination remain to be seen but it may effectively end Russia’s military presence in Tartous. Syrian opposition-linked channels, citing the Ministry of Information, reported on 20 January that the government also demanded the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces and, by annulling the deal, the HTS-led government appears determined to regain control over the ports.

Port of Tartous

Separate sources stated that a Russian ship – the Sparta II – entered the port on 21 January in what may be a move to evacuate military equipment and assets from the naval base. As noted by the Institute of the Study of War, open-source satellite imagery suggests Russia has been preparing for the evacuation of equipment and cargo since mid-December, indicating that the Russian government is actively preparing to end its military presence in Syria.

So far, the Russian government has not commented on the reports yet officials have repeatedly signaled that Moscow is not leaving Syria and pushed back against perceptions that Russia is leaving the region. This appears in the context of the above-noted reports to be a face-saving measure however, with the new government likely to push back against Russian efforts to retain a military presence in the country.

Saudi Arabia urges lifting of sanctions during Davos summit
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on 21 January, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan reiterated Riyadh’s call to lift international sanctions on Syria. Repeating remarks expressed during the Riyadh Summit earlier this month, bin Farhan emphasized the need to lift sanctions to alleviate humanitarian conditions, assist with the rebuilding of the country, and assist the Syrian people. Moreover, the foreign minister expressed “cautious optimism” regarding Syria’s future, and said the new government says “the right things in secret and in public”, while stressing Saudi Arabia’s desire to cooperate with the new government. Meanwhile, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Sheibani announced on 21 January that he would attend the forum in Switzerland. Writing on the social platform X, Al-Sheibani said he was “honored to represent Syria for the first time in its history at the Davos World Economic Forum”.

As discussed more in the latest Weekly Analysis Report, these engagements are significant in the context of Saudi-led efforts to promote Syria’s return to the Arab League and in its engagement with the new government to ensure investment opportunities in Syria. For the HTS-led government, representation at the forum constitutes another diplomatic success in terms of facilitating its engagement with partners in the West. Besides promoting perceptions of its legitimacy and commitment to an inclusive political transition, the foreign minister’s appearance can be expected to similarly focus on encouraging the lifting of sanctions. This expected appeal for the immediate easing of restrictions also comes only days before the EU is scheduled to hold its own meeting to discuss sanctions relief on 26 January.

KNC and KDP leader Barzani held another meeting in Erbil
On 21 January, KDP leader and former KRG President Massoud Barzani met with a delegation of representatives from the Kurdish National Council (KNC) in Erbil. The meeting was the second in less than two weeks between Barzani and the KNC, amidst present developments in Syria. Like the previous meeting, the discussion focused on the importance of achieving Kurdish unity and a spokesperson for the KNC said Barzani urged the KNC to “defend the rights of the Kurdish people in Syria.”

Further details of the meeting were not provided yet the visit also followed Barzani’s meeting with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander Mazloum Abdi in Erbil last week – suggesting a deliberate attempt by the Barzani to mediate between the SDF and KNC, whose relations remain fractured following years of failed attempts to achieve a political settlement. The timing is also significant amidst present efforts by the HTS-led government, backed by Turkey and the Syrian National Army (SNA), to disarm and integrate the SDF into a new military command structure, and more broadly to integrate the Kurds in northern Syria under the new government. Besides resolving intra-Kurdish tensions, present efforts also aim at forging a unified Kurdish front to facilitate and gain leverage in the negotiations with the HTS.

DAMASCUS & THE SOUTHERN REGION (including Suwaida, Daraa & Quneitra)

Grenade attack reported near bridge in Damascus
Hostile activity in the capital city was limited to low-level violence and arrest operations. On the evening of 21 January, an unidentified person threw a hand grenade under the Midan Bridge in Damascus City. While no casualties were reported, a nearby bus sustained external damage. The motivation behind the attack was not specified.

Separately, the Public Security Services arrested several young men in Damascus City for allegedly flirting with schoolgirls on the street as the girls left school. The men’s heads were reportedly shaved as a punitive measure after their arrests which highlights continuing morality-enforcing measures undertaken by the HTS.

Outside the city, Counter-Drug personnel seized a drug warehouse in the Saboura area in the Damascus countryside. The warehouse was reportedly owned by Maher al-Assad, the brother of the ousted regime president Bashar al-Assad, and the operation forms part of an ongoing effort to crack down on the narcotics manufacturing and smuggling infrastructure created under the former government.

Israeli advances reported in Quneitra
In Quneitra province, reports of Israeli advances and reinforcements continued to be reported over the review period. Notably, multiple sources documented deployments two kilometers east of Salam as well as near strategic hills surrounding the town of Kodna in the far southern countryside of the province. On 21 January, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) also reported that Israeli forces established seven military points, both inside and outside the ceasefire line. The points were located in areas such as Qars al-Nafil, Talul al-Hamr, Jabata al-Khashab, al-Hamidiyah, Mantara Dam and Tal Ahmar.

NORTH & EAST SYRIA (Including Hasaka, Deir Ez Zour, Aleppo & Raqqa provinces)

VBIED detonation near military HQ in Manbij City
For a third time in less than a week, a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) detonated in Manbij city. The detonation took place shortly before midnight on 21 January near the headquarters of the Amshat faction, an SNA-affiliated group, close to the Traffic Department and Civil Defense. No casualties were reported but the explosion caused material damage in the vicinity.

Like recent incidents, no group has claimed responsibility for the attacks but the involvement of the PKK is strongly suspected given the target. That said, recent detonations do not appear intended to cause casualties but rather to convey a political message and to retaliate for recent operations near the Tishreen Dam. It is noteworthy that no confirmed casualties have been inflicted as a result of the recent attacks in the city despite the use of VBIEDs. Regardless, additional attacks involving this tactic can be expected as long as present operations near the Tishreen Dam continue.

SNA operations in eastern Aleppo continue
Meanwhile, the tempo of SNA operations near the Tishreen Dam in eastern Aleppo remains elevated. According to local sources, the SNA launched a large-scale attack on the evening of 20 January near Khirbet al-Zamala village, southeast of Manbij, near Tishreen Dam. The attack involved six vehicles equipped with Dushka weapons, an armored vehicle, and a BMB-type military vehicle. Clashes between the SDF and the SNA continued until 3:00 p.m., with the attack ultimately thwarted according to the SDF.

Elsewhere, on the Syriatel hill front, Turkish forces and SNA bombarded the area with heavy artillery, while Turkish forces intensified air raids near Tishreen Dam. In response, the SDF responded by targeting SNA positions with drones 12 times, destroying two military vehicles and striking 10 gatherings. On the Deir Hafer front, SDF drones also reportedly targeted four SNA vehicles, including two military vehicles and a motorcycle. Eight SNA fighters were killed, 14 others injured, and four vehicles and one motorcycle destroyed.

Meanwhile, a Turkish-linked source stated that SDF shelling targeted civilian homes in Tal Arsh village, Manbij countryside, eastern Aleppo province on 21 January. As a result, two girls were killed and seven others were injured as a result. The incident was not confidently verified but followed local source reporting indicating Turkish airstrikes killed two and injured dozens of others near the Tishreen Dam on the same day. In response, the DAANES accused Turkey of war crimes and called for international prosecution over the targeting of civilians. Similar reports and accusations of civilian casualties are likely to continue to be reported over the coming days as the fighting in the area remains intense.

Turkish airstrikes reported near Kobani
Meanwhile, Turkish forces also maintain heavy pressure on areas around Kobani where several airstrikes were reported on 21 January. SDF-linked media reported that Turkish warplanes targeted the villages of Bir Haso and Sabt in the southern countryside of Kobani. Separate reports stated that operations were conducted at the Sarrin junction in the southern countryside of Kobani City, causing significant material damage. No casualties were discussed as a result of either airstrikes, however.

SDF enforced curfew on areas threatened by tribal factions
On 21 January, the SDF released a statement declaring that the group regained control of areas in the eastern countryside of Deir Ez Zour that were subjected to attacks and temporarily controlled by Arab tribal factions on 19 and 20 January. SDF patrols also enforced a curfew from 8 a.m. to 12 p.m., using loudspeakers to announce the restrictions in six villages in total. An unnamed security source reported that a large number of militants were arrested, and several others were injured during clashes. Additionally, the SDF closed the Mayadin and Ashara river crossings as a precautionary measure, after the tribal factions launched the attacks from the western side of the Euphrates River. Since 21 January, no further hostilities have been noted in the area.

SDF target Turkish military base in Hasakah amidst reports of IED targeting US patrol
Hostilities in Hasaka province were linked to diverse threat conditions. On 21 January, the SDF reportedly launched rockets against a Turkish military base in Manakh village, Ras al-Ain countryside, northern Hasaka province. Pro-SDF media claimed three Turkish soldiers were injured as a result however this was not confirmed by the Turkish side.

Meanwhile, late on 20 January, an Iran-linked media outlet reported an IED attack on a US patrol in eastern Hasaka City. Casualties were reportedly sustained as a result according to the single source report that also claimed the incident prompted heightened US security and helicopter activity. The purported incident was not discussed by other sources and has so far not been confidently verified, while possibly attributed to Iran-linked propaganda.

IS attack targets SDF patrol in Hasaka
Elsewhere in the Hasaka province, the NES Asayish reported that during routine patrols in Tal Hamis City, east of Hasaka City, an IS element opened fire on the patrol while riding a motorcycle. The Asayish returned fire, killing the assailant. Items seized from his possession included four hand grenades, an AK-47 rifle, a 9mm handgun, $10,900, and other belongings.

In a related development, the SDF announced the results of its anti-IS operations in 2024. The SDF reported 98 security operations across northern and eastern Syria, resulting in the arrest of 278 individuals accused of ISIS affiliation and the deaths of 17, including six leaders. ISIS launched 113 attacks during the year, with the SDF thwarting 43 of them.

CENTRAL REGION (Including Idlib, Hama, Latakia, Tartous, Hama & Homs)

HTS security operations conducted in Homs and Hama provinces
The HTS continued to conduct security operations in Homs and Hama provinces during the review period, targeting criminal elements as well as elements affiliated with the former regime. Most notably, on 21 January, a large-scale operation was launched in the western countryside of Homs province, targeting weapons depots, drug dealers, smugglers, and members of pro-Assad militias who refused to surrender their weapons. Separately, a large-scale arrest campaign was also launched in the eastern countryside of Hama province, likewise targeting individuals linked with the former regime.

Some reports on 21 January stated that the HTS engaged in controversial activities during these operations, with local sources accusing the HTS of displacing residents along the border with Lebanon. Media sources also claimed residents in Rafeen, Haisa, Jabourin, Qaniyat Al-Asi, Tasnin, Kafrnan, Akrad Al-Dasiniya, and surrounding areas were subjected to abuse. The villages affected are predominantly Shia and Alawite, suggesting an increase in sectarian tensions. This notably follows acts of resistance from pro-Assad elements in the affected provinces, with the security operations and arrest campaigns forming part of a standing law-enforcement effort by the HTS.

Clashes reported during security operations in western Homs
Separately, but in a related development, violent clashes erupted in Ghor al-Gharbiya village, western Homs province, involving Public Security forces, HTS, and elements of the former regime. Various reports, including by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, claimed that HTS used excessive violence during a security operation in the area, even conducting executions of Alawite residents, and burning houses. In response, the clashes broke out as residents opposed the operation and culminated with several arrests. Tensions can be expected to remain elevated in the area while the reports certainly form a cause for concern amidst the HTS’s present efforts to portray itself as a legitimate and moderate force that is committed to a policy of inclusion. So far, the reactions to the reports have been limited, but such arrest operations and alleged abuses are set to generate negative repercussions if they continue within HTS-controlled areas.

Syrian Resistance claimed responsibility for attack in Jableh, Latakia
Separately, acts of resistance against the HTS were also reported in the Latakia province. After midnight on 22 January, armed men attacked a checkpoint at Jableh City’s entrance, killing two public security members and injuring two others. The Syria Resistance faction claimed responsibility, stating they assassinated Abu Sateef Al-Shaghri and Abu Hussein Al-Jundi, affiliated with HTS, using a hand grenade and direct gunfire after five days of surveillance. A security operation by the HTS can be expected in response to this incident, with additional acts of violence and retribution likely as a result.

UN contractor “arrested” at Hotel in Homs province
On 20 January, local reports stated that individuals belonging to an unspecified armed group entered the Safir Homs Hotel in Homs City and arrested, or forcibly removed, an individual later identified as a contractor for a UN-affiliated organization. The hotel is reportedly used by some UN staff and initial reports described the detainee as a “UN worker” however later reports clarified that the victim was a local national employed as a temporary contractor. The cause of the arrest was not specified and further details regarding its circumstances remain unclear as of writing. Additional details will be provided as available.