NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Nationwide incidents 

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

• HTS-led government rejects SDF security proposal
• EU announce additional humanitarian aid to Syria
• Localized violence, demonstrations, and security operations in Damascus
• Peaceful demonstrations in As Suwayda
• Multiple IS-initiated attacks on SDF units in Deir ez Zour
• SDF announces amended curfew hours
• Intense clashes between SDF and Turkish-enabled SNA units near Tishreen Dam
• Violence in Homs and Hama linked to local issues and retribution
• HTS factions open fire in residential area of Latakia

STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

HTS-led government rejects SDF security proposal
According to recent reports citing Murhaf Abu Kasra, the Defense Minister for the HTS-led government, leaders in Damascus recently rejected a deal proposed by SDF Leader General Mazlum Abdi which would have seen the SDF partitioned as a separate organization under the umbrella of the new Ministry of Defense. Going further, Defense Minister Murhaf claimed that General Mazlum is trying to buy time by further extending negotiations between the SDF and HTS-led government in Damascus. Coinciding with Defense Minister Murhaf’s comments, various social media sources have since reported the deployment of HTS units along the Euphrates and close to the Tishreen Dam axis, raising concerns over the potential for clashes between the SDF and HTS-led forces.

General Mazlum recently traveled to Iraq to meet with KDP leader Masoud Barzani in Erbil, discussing a number of security-related topics. While public comments following the meeting were akin to aims for general peace and mutual respect, conversations likely included matters pertaining to the SDF’s ongoing discussions with the new government in Damascus. SDF leaders are probably seeking to shore up political support for further negotiations with leaders in Damascus, though the new government’s outward-facing comments have generally expressed an intent to unite all security forces under single control, rather than a separate Kurdish-led faction in the northeast as General Mazlum would almost certainly prefer.

EU announce additional humanitarian aid to Syria
The EU Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management announced that additional humanitarian aid amounting to approximately 235 million Euros would be provided to Syria. Hadja Lahbib made the announced in a statement on X shortly after meeting HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus –  a meeting described by Lahbib as “cordial and comprehensive.” The post also implicitly praised the new government and said she would report back to EU ministers the “reassuring messages I heard from the authorities.”  

EU Commissioner Hadja Lahbib and HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa

In a subsequent press conference, the commissioner stressed that the aid would not be affected by the existing sanctions which since the 2023 earthquake in Turkey have been structured in a way that allows humanitarian aid to be channeled. She also emphasized that the sanctions were imposed on the former Syria government and reiterated that the EU will discuss the issue of sanctions relief on the new government shortly – an assessed reference to a planned EU meeting later this month dedicated to the issue. Of note, the announcement follows a pledge by Germany in December, shortly after the fall of the Assad-led government, to allocate 60 million euros for humanitarian and relief efforts in Syria.

DAMASCUS & THE SOUTHERN REGION (including Suwaida, Daraa & Quneitra)

Localized violence, demonstrations, and security operations in Damascus
Incidents in Damascus included reports of localized violence, demonstrations, and security operations. According to social media sources, a group of individuals physically assaulted an elderly man in front of security forces in the Old Damascus City area. The context of the incident remains limited but may suggest that the targeted individual was linked to the former government, likewise failing to draw reactions from nearby security personnel.

Hundreds of families also gathered outside of the US Embassy building in Damascus on 18 January, demanding the immediate release of individuals detained by HTS. Those gathered claimed that HTS had detained hundreds of families linked to the former government, with those in attendance pointing out that most of those arrested previously served as low-level soldiers within the army. A separate event was also recorded in the Sabinah area of the Damascus countryside, in which dozens gathered to celebrate the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

Increased security presence was also recorded in Umayyad Square, a notable part of the city close to major Embassies and other government buildings. Similar deployments were recorded in the Mazzeh area of Damascus, which was previously known for its major Iran/Iran-aligned presence prior to the collapse of the government.

Peaceful demonstrations in As Suwayda
Two separate demonstrations were recorded in Suwayda over the latest reporting period, with dozens of real estate, administrative, and surveying workers gathering in Karamah Square on 18 January to demand better employment opportunities. Those in attendance demanded the formation of a special work union, similar to other job fields, in order to more effectively secure future employment opportunities.

The following day, dozens of individuals gathered in front of the As Suwayda Governorate building with the aim of rejecting a number of offices recently established to oversee the governorate. Demonstrators are dissatisfied with recent appointees who they claim are exploiting recent instability to promote themselves to higher positions while consolidating further power and influence.

NORTH & EAST SYRIA (Including Hasaka, Deir Ez Zour, Aleppo & Raqqa provinces)

Multiple IS-initiated attacks on SDF units in Deir ez Zour
IS elements initiated several attacks on the SDF in Deir ez Zour on 18 January, targeting vulnerable units in rural areas of the province. IS fighters reportedly engaged in a small arms clash with SDF members on the Suwar-Ezbah Road on 18 January, wounding two before fleeing the immediate area. IS elements engaged in a subsequent clash with SDF elements nearby in the Ruwaishiid area, though not resulting in any reported casualties. Later, IS elements attacked an SDF site belonging to the Hajin Military Council in Dhiban. IS elements reportedly used an RPG and small arms during the attack which did not yield any casualties.

Turkish artillery ops in Hasakah – Security forces arrest suspect linked to Turkish intelligence
Turkish units also conducted artillery operations in northern Hasakah throughout the reporting period, targeting areas in Dardara and Qur al-Qarajneh – not resulting in any reported casualties. Artillery impacts were also reported in the Rabi’at village in Abu Rasin district, though similarly not resulting in any casualties.

Security forces in Hasakah also reported the arrest of an individual suspected of working with Turkish intelligence and Turkish-backed factions. The individual was arrested in the Mujibra Village area and was found in possession of a hand grenade, AK-47-style rifle, and ammunition.

SDF announces amended curfew hours
Recently, the SDF announced amended curfew hours across north and east Syria, beginning from 23:00 until 06:00. The move comes amidst ongoing intense clashes with Turkish-backed factions to the north and northwest, IS attacks in Deir ez Zour and Raqqa, as well as HTS movements along the Euphrates River.

Intense clashes between SDF and Turkish-enabled SNA units near Tishreen Dam
Clashes around the Tishreen Dam remain intense as SDF units seek to defend vulnerable positions on the western side (Right Bank) of the Euphrates River. As previously discussed, SDF units recently made limited tactical gains in the area, though SNA units remain capable of repelling any major assault. Turkish air and artillery units continue to enable SNA operations in the area, albeit to limited capacities as SDF units employ effective operations in the defense to prevent major movements of SNA personnel.

Notably, Turkish UAVs again struck civilian gatherings near the Tishreen Dam, resulting in the deaths of four civilians and 15 others gathered nearby. Turkey has consistently struck convoys headed to the gathering or grouping close to the dam as large crowds continue to reject any Turkish or Turkish-backed forces from entering the area.

Amidst the chaos, SNA units attempted to push towards the SDF-controlled Atshana Village, seeking to gain control over elevated terrain. During the assault, however, advancing SNA units were halted by effective SDF defenses, forcing SNA personnel to retreat under weaponized UAV attacks that resulted in the claimed deaths of 17 SNA fighters and injuries to dozens more. In response, artillery units subsequently struck the same area, though to limited effect.

CENTRAL REGION (Including Idlib, Hama, Latakia, Tartous, Hama & Homs)

Violence in Homs and Hama linked to local issues and retribution
Tensions in the central region were generally related to local violence, retribution-style attacks, and criminality amidst the backdrop of recent political changes and religious disagreements. In Homs, armed members affiliated with HTS reportedly seized a number of homes in the Nazihin neighborhood, subsequently expelling the families residing there under sectarian pretexts. Several intimidation-style grenade attacks were also recorded in nearby areas as part of ongoing local feuds, with expectations that such violence will likely continue amidst local security instability. In the more rural areas of Homs, HTS members reportedly flogged two Christian youths from Jabriya, forcing them to convert to Islam under duress. Nearby, a civilian’s body was also found near the Rifa’I Mosque, reportedly having been kidnapped earlier in the day.

Similar violence was recorded in Hama as the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights documented the abduction of a young man from Mahardah, whose tortured body was later discovered near Lataminah. Several abductions, tortures, and dismemberments have recently been recorded in the area, often targeting members of the same family or those believed to be linked to the previous government. Two individuals were also executed in a nearby field as well, mirroring a similar event days prior in which a local resident carried out the extrajudicial killing of two former government officials.

HTS factions open fire in residential area of Latakia – Uncover Captagon smuggling operation
Security operations in Latakia targeted various locations, with a notable operation in the village of Damsarkho escalating into violence between HTS-aligned elements and local residents. While no casualties were reported, sources claimed that HTS members fired erratically at homes in the area, prompting local leaders to hold a meeting in an effort to address the situation peacefully. HTS-aligned factions also uncovered a Captagon smuggling operation reportedly linked to Maher al-Assad, brother to Bashar al-Assad. Sources have reported a number of incidents in recent weeks related to forces loyal to Maher al-Assad, including a notable ambush in late December that resulted in the deaths of 14 police officers in Tartous.