NATIONAL OVERVIEW

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Nationwide incidents 

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

• Iran ready to reopen embassy in Damascus pending security guarantees
• UN commissioner calls for sanctions relief
• Turkish Airlines to resume flights to Damascus
• SDF commander calls for decentralization
• Transitional government conducts presence patrols in Dimas
• Local violence in the outskirts of Damascus City
• Local violence in Suwaida following fatal hand grenade incident
• Rockets impact close to US forces – Prompt US strikes near DeZ military airport
• Unidentified actors target water station with RPG
• HTS fatalities during raid on former Syrian government-aligned militia
• Clashes between SDF and Turkey/aligned forces
• Turkish UAV and artillery units enable SNA attacks on SDF near Tishreen Dam
• SDF units engaged by local armed factions in Raqqa
• HTS security operations aim to exert control over central region

STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Iran ready to reopen embassy in Damascus pending security guarantees
On 15 January, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran is willing to reopen its embassy in Damascus, assuming that “sufficient security guarantees” are met to ensure the safety of its staff. The foreign minister stopped short, however, of formally recognizing the new Syrian government and said the decision to recognize it would be made at a later stage. Tehran’s official position remains that it will support a government that represents the diverse spectrum of Syrian society, but it has so not formally established relations with the new government despite visible efforts toward that end.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi with new Special Envoy to Syria Muhammed Reza Raouf Sheibani

Earlier this week, Iran announced the appointment of a special envoy for Syrian affairs – a move likewise seen as a step towards establishing relations with the new government. The new envoy, Muhammed Reza Raouf Sheibani, is a former ambassador to Syria and served in the position between 2011 and 2016. Sheibani’s time in the country was marked by the Syrian civil war and in this role, Sheibani oversaw Iran’s gradual entrenchment as a key ally of Assad, with the ambassador assessed to have played a key role in consolidating Iran’s political influence during the period. The present conditions are understandably very different as the fall of Assad led to the withdrawal of Iran’s diplomatic and military personnel, as well as most of the proxy groups previously present in the country. That said, Tehran has since taken gradual steps to engage the new government in an assessed effort to reinsert its presence. As of writing, there are no concrete indications that the HTS – which has repeatedly rejected Iran’s influence – is willing to accommodate Iran’s intent to re-establish relations.

UN commissioner calls for sanctions relief
Speaking during his first visit to Syria on 15 January, the UN Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, called for Western sanctions on Syria to be lifted. Addressing members of the media after meeting with the senior HTS leadership, Türk stressed that the “people of Syria need every ounce of help they can get to rebuild the country” and expressed concerns over the impact of international sanctions on the lives of ordinary Syrians: “I therefore call for an urgent reconsideration of sectoral sanctions with a view to lifting them”, Türk said.

While not retaining any direct influence on the issue of sanctions, Türk joins a growing chorus of international and western stakeholders to call for sanctions relief on the new government. To recall, the issue was most recently discussed during the regional summit in Riyadh held earlier this week where the EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said the issue will be discussed in an upcoming meeting in Brussels at the end of January. Several EU members have already expressed their support for sanctions relief and earlier this month the US announced the lifting of some restrictions, in an assessed bid to incentivize the new government to accelerate an inclusive political transition.

Turkish Airlines to resume flights to Damascus
On 15 January, Turkish officials announced that Turkish Airlines will resume flights to and from Damascus. The CEO of Turkish Airlines said the carrier will operate three flights a week beginning on 23 January. The announcement followed a meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syria’s new foreign minister Assad al-Shibani in Ankara where he also met his counterpart Hakan Fidan. In a joint press conference, the two sides discussed plans to reopen the Turkish consulate in Aleppo city following a closure of more than 12 years – the latest sign of Turkey’s intent to further entrench its political influence in Syria under the new leadership.

While not stated, the meeting likely also focused on the situation in North and East Syria, and Turkish-backed efforts to defeat the SDF and to disarm the organization. The HTS delegation also included interim Defense Minister Marhaf Abu Qasra, and the Head of Intelligence Anas Khattab who met separately with their Turkish counterparts, yet few details of these meetings were revealed publicly.  Aside from ongoing military operations, Turkey is assessed to support HTS-led efforts to integrate the SDF into a new military structure (see below) and to disarm the group. Speaking at the press conference, Shibani emphasized that the HTS would not allow Syria to become a “launchpad for attacks” on Turkey.

SDF commander calls for decentralization
A day before the HTS’s visit to Turkey, the Commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces Mazloum Abdi addressed, in a televised interview, several issues with respect to the ongoing political transition in Syria. Speaking with the Asharq TV Channel , Abdi described “decentralization” as the best way forward for Syria – implicitly rebuking efforts to integrate the SDF and DAANES into a centralized entity under the HTS’ leadership.

Abdi also confirmed that negotiations and discussions are ongoing regarding the integration of the SDF under the new Syrian Defence Ministry, but that the integration should be in the form of a “military entity” or “bloc” rather than on an individual level. The key objective of this request is to preserve the autonomy and independence of the SDF as a separate military entity, as opposed to absorbing the group into the new military structure. Likewise, the claim regarding “decentralization” is a contentious issue as it is deemed to conflict with the HTS’ stated rejection of any “federal entities” acting outside the central government.

DAMASCUS & THE SOUTHERN REGION (including Suwaida, Daraa & Quneitra)

Transitional government conducts presence patrols in Dimas
HTS elements launched a number of security operations in and around the City of Damascus, targeting criminal elements and individuals linked to the former government. Units were reportedly active in the Dimas area of the Damascus countryside, with images showing armed members of the Internal Security Forces patrolling the area. While these operations are described as searching for former government members, such presence patrols are also generally intended to reinforce the transitional government’s control over these areas, particularly due to their proximity to the capital.

Local violence in the outskirts of Damascus City
Sources also reported that a young man was shot and killed inside a commercial store in the Harna al-Shaqiya area, north of Damascus City, on 15 January. Details surrounding the incident are limited, however, security forces reportedly located and arrested the assailant(s) several hours later. HTS-linked individuals also reportedly burned several homes in the Talfita area of the Damascus countryside, according to a local NGO. The report suggests that the incident is related to a local matter amidst similar retaliatory incidents in the area.

Local violence in Suwaida following fatal hand grenade incident
Violence in Suwaida was generally related to localized incidents, with sources reporting that a hand grenade incident in the Masaken al-Khader neighborhood near Suwaida City resulted in the death of one and injuries to at least one other individual. The situation devolved into further violence after individuals affiliated with the deceased individual entered the hospital where the injured individual was being treated and attempted to kill him. Clashes later unfolded in the Masaken al-Khader neighborhood amidst related tensions, resulting in the death of another individual and injuries among four others.

Meanwhile, local sources reported the discovery of a man’s body that appeared to have sustained numerous gunshot wounds, indicating a field execution in the town of Arman in southern Suwaida. The individual’s background and suspected assailants were not initially disclosed.

NORTH & EAST SYRIA (Including Hasaka, Deir Ez Zour, Aleppo & Raqqa provinces)

Rockets impact close to US forces – Prompt US strikes near DeZ military airport
Notable incidents in Deir ez Zour province included reports of unidentified rockets impacting near US forces stationed at Mission Support Site (MSS) Conoco (aka MSS Euphrates), reportedly prompting retaliatory actions by US forces. Limited sources described rockets of unknown origin impacting close to the base on the evening of 15 January, with two airstrikes subsequently targeting Mount Tharda, close to the Deir ez Zour military airport.

Unidentified actors target water station with RPG in Deir Ez Zour
Unknown individuals also reportedly targeted the al-Omar field water station with an RPG on 15 January, resulting in no reported casualties. The incident took place in the al-Lattwa neighborhood in the town of Dhiban and is initially believed to contain IS involvement. A young man was also killed by unidentified gunmen riding a motorcycle in the town of Shanan, on the eastern side of the Euphrates. No further context regarding the victim or suspected gunmen was disclosed, though IS involvement cannot be ruled out. The body of a young man was also found discarded in a local marketplace in the town of Ezbah, also without further details provided. A resident from the village of Buwaytiyah was also killed after an explosive remnant detonated while he was herding animals in the Deir ez Zour desert. The incident is the latest in a series of explosions involving explosive remnants and serves as a constant reminder of how highly contaminated the country is following years of armed conflict, and the importance of retaining adequate security arrangements when transiting rural areas.

HTS fatalities during raid on former Syrian government-aligned militia
Elements of HTS carried out a raid operation in Deir ez Zour City on 15 January, targeting remnants of the National Defense Militia – aligned with the former government. A clash reportedly broke out during the raid, resulting in the deaths of three HTS members, however, no further details were disclosed. Similar operations should be expected to persist as HTS leadership likely aims to solidify control and prevent any major opposition, particularly in areas away from Damascus where follow-on support would take time.

Clashes between SDF and Turkey/aligned forces in Hasakah province
Incidents in Hasakah province were generally linked to ongoing clashes between the SDF and Turkish/respectively aligned forces, with notable artillery operations reportedly impacting the villages of Khadhrawi, Dada, Abdal, Tal Harmal, al-Asadiya, al-Bubbi, and Abu Rasin. No casualties were reported, however, sources reported that impacts were noted near a fuel station in Abu Rasin, raising concerns over collateral damages.

Two SDF members were also reportedly injured early on 16 January after an attack by an unspecified armed group targeted the Mushairfa checkpoint in Hasakah City. Meanwhile, armed members of the Turkish-backed Hamzat faction reportedly stormed the home of an 80-year-old woman in the Ahmen Kan neighborhood of Ras al-Ain. The assailants stole a number of belongings but also physically assaulted the woman, causing her to lose consciousness, and reportedly remain in critical condition.

Turkish UAV and artillery units enable SNA attacks on SDF near Tishreen Dam
Intense clashes between the SDF and SNA continued throughout the reporting period near the Tishreen Dam. Violent clashes erupted on 15 January after the SNA launched an attack on Syriatel Hill as forces launched a complex attack in an effort to pressure SDF units into withdrawing. Reports suggest that the SNA were enabled by Turkish UAVs and artillery units, resulting in the deaths of five SDF members operating in the defense. The SNA reportedly sustained as many as 13 fatalities during the assault.

Closer to the Tishreen Dam, sources reported that an ambulance driver and four civilians were killed on 15 January after Turkish aircraft struck a civilian convoy headed to the Dam. The convoy, similar to previous related events, was organized to support the SDF and express its stance against Turkish military operations in Syria.

Gatherings in Aleppo commemorate past events and celebrate Israel-Hamas ceasefire
Dozens of young Syrian men and women held a solidarity vigil in front of the Faculty of Architecture at the University of Aleppo, commemorating the anniversary of the Amara massacre that took place 12 years ago. Hours later, hundreds of civilians took to the streets of Aleppo City to celebrate the recently announced ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

SDF units engaged by local armed factions in Raqqa
Multiple clashes between the SDF and various armed factions also persisted in Raqqa province on 15 January, with sources reporting that unidentified individuals targeted an SDF checkpoint in Tabqa City with RPGs, though not resulting in any casualties. Heavy gunfire was heard in the vicinity shortly thereafter as SDF units engaged the fleeing assailants.

Turkish military operations were also reported north of Raqqa City, on the outskirts of Sakiro Village early on 16 January. Details surrounding the nature of the strikes are yet to be disclosed, however, such operations are relatively common as Turkey seeks to enforce its buffer zone to the north.

Meanwhile, members of the military police affiliated with Turkish-backed factions reportedly opened fire on a speeding car that failed to stop at a checkpoint for inspection in the Salouk area of Raqqa province. The car was reportedly carrying several individuals and was speeding in an effort to get to a nearby hospital as a pregnant woman was in labor. It was later disclosed that the pregnant woman and another woman in the car were killed as a result of the shooting.

CENTRAL REGION (Including Idlib, Hama, Latakia, Tartous, Hama & Homs)

HTS security operations aim to exert control over central region
Incidents in Syria’s central region generally included HTS activity and security operations likely aimed at consolidating control over areas in the Homs province. Sources reported the arrest of Bilal Awda, leader of the so-called National Army, for forming a military faction outside the administration of the interim government. Separately, but also in Homs City, an unverified social media source reported that HTS members murdered a young man in the Zahraa neighbourhood on 15 January. Further details related to the incident were not disclosed, precluding further analysis.

Meanwhile, a landmine reportedly exploded in an engineering vehicle on the Latakia-Aleppo International Road near the town of Kansaba. No casualties were reported during the incident. Social media sources also reported that two HTS vehicles fatally struck an individual traveling on a motorcycle in the Wadi al-Shater neighborhood of Tartous City. The incident prompted civilians to gather nearby and chant slogans against HTS, prompting HTS personnel to open fire into the air to disperse the crowd.

Provocative demonstration in Homs City
In another noteworthy event, hundreds of individuals linked to HTS stormed the Hawash Private University on 15 January, carrying banners belonging to Jabhat al-Nusra. While the event was reportedly celebratory, sources also characterized it as provocative as Islamic slogans and banners were raised despite the University retaining a predominately Christian community.

Separately, in Latakia, dozens of families of martyrs and those discharged from military service staged a sit-in-style event outside the Palace of Justice building in Latakia City. Those gathered urged officials to reconsider the dismissal of their family members.